Day 21 Close: Ukraine-Russia Closer to Ceasefire Deal, As Strikes Continue

    Photo: AFP/Getty Images [via CNN]

    The Facts

    • Ukraine and Russia have reportedly made progress in drafting a neutrality plan to end the war, which would involve Ukraine giving up its ambitions to join NATO, as conflict talks resumed for a third day running on Wed. Ukrainian officials reportedly remain skeptical of Russia's desire for peace, however.

    • Meanwhile, bombardment of several cities continued, with a theater in Mariupol sheltering hundreds of civilians reportedly shelled by the Russians. Moscow denies bombing the theater or anywhere else in Mariupol on Wed.

    The Spin

    Anti-Russia narrative

    This invasion is an egregious violation of international law. Putin's ultimate aim is to restore the Soviet empire, even if it takes massive bloodshed and false pretexts such as calling the 2014 Ukrainian revolution after a fraudulent election a "coup". This unprovoked attack is the latest chapter in Putin's Orwellian attempt to re-write history.

    Pro-Russia narrative

    NATO and the US have ignored Russia's security concerns by breaking its promise not to expand eastward in return for German reunification. These concerns are legitimate and taking them seriously would have avoided the Ukraine tragedy.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 10% chance that Kyiv will fall to Russian forces by April, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

    Establishment split



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