Pro-establishment narrative

Measles is a highly contagious virus that can cause meningitis, seizures, and even death in children and adults. While there's no specific treatment for the life-threatening disease, vaccination rates of 95% could stop its spread completely and provide life-long protection. Under-vaccinated or un-vaccinated populations risk causing large outbreaks in countries that have historically been measles-free. Public health agencies must heed the WHO's warnings.

Establishment-critical narrative

The WHO in Europe is leading the push with charged calls for "urgent" action when it comes to vaccination for another disease outbreak. While the measles vaccine may have been an effective treatment for the disease over the past few decades, it's natural for individuals to have questions — especially after the confusing and polarizing COVID pandemic. Medical institutions are poised to address this outbreak but must be mindful of patients who carry reservations they wouldn't have had a few years ago.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the global annual death rate (per 100K people) from infectious disease in 2025 will be at least 102, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump is riding high on toxic euphoria that could fizzle as his legal woes continue to mount. Despite the endorsements of former rivals Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy, Haley still had strong gains with GOP moderates, independents, and those with college degrees. It's not time yet for Haley to give in — especially with the South Carolina primary a month away.

Pro-Trump narrative

If Iowa and New Hampshire haven't shown Republican voters which way the wind is blowing, nothing will. Even in South Carolina, Nikki Haley's home state, Trump is polling strongly. Haley should see the writing on the wall and throw her support behind the former president's momentum in a show of unity. Trump is on track to soundly defeat Joe Biden in November.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Sweden’s imminent accession to NATO and Finland’s approval last year are key diplomatic wins for international security. Peace is attained through unity and strength, so adding two historically neutral countries from northern Europe to the military alliance will go a long way toward deterring aggression. With Russia on the offensive in Ukraine, all hands must be on deck to stop further attacks. While some countries may want to keep out of conflict, modern defense requires a unified front, and NATO is the main protector of the global order.

Establishment-critical narrative

NATO claims to seek peace in Europe, but the fact is that the expansion of the aggressive military alliance is only destabilizing the continent. NATO has essentially become an anti-Russian alliance that seeks to provoke Moscow and create conflict. Moreover, NATO is destroying the concept of neutrality and non-interventionism by calling on all members to pick a side in conflicts that have nothing to do with them. NATO is hostile toward its perceived enemies, and Sweden is actually inching closer towards provoking conflict, not deterring it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 99% chance Sweden will join NATO before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The precision retaliatory strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria are the latest proof that the US is serious about protecting its troops and military installations in the region. It's not Washington that's playing with fire, but the Iranian regime using its proxy forces to wage a hybrid war against the US and Israel that threatens to plunge the entire region into chaos. US troops were sent to Iraq at the request of Baghdad to help fight the Islamic State group, and the US will not hesitate to defend itself against any aggressive forces in the event of further attacks.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US attacks in Iraq and Syria underscore the weakness, rather than the strength, of the US military as it's unable to prevent the Axis of Resistance's retaliatory strikes. Moreover, Washington's pointless military actions only address the symptoms and not the cause of escalation, which lies in Israel's catastrophic war against Gaza's population. Add to this that the US occupation forces are illegally in Syria and are officially no longer welcome in Iraq. The resistance will thus continue until the US and the Israeli regime opt for peace over domination and violence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

If the trucker convoy wasn't a threat to national security then nothing is. Not only did this far-right, reactionary operation threaten the Canadian economy by blocking border crossings consisting of 25% of US-Canada trade, but some of the truckers had large amounts of weapons and ammunition. The previous public inquiry was correct, and hopefully, the next appeal will come to the same logical conclusion.

Right narrative

This ruling is a win for democracy and the first step to holding Trudeau accountable. The invocation of the Emergencies Act was completely unconstitutional —while protesters were merely exercising their rights to oppose extraordinary public health mandates, the government responded with an assault on civil liberties. Labeling all protesters far-right reactionaries is a deliberate distortion of the truth to justify an authoritarian crackdown.

Nerd narrative

There is an 82% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite Russia's accusations, exactly who was on the plane and how it went down are yet to be independently confirmed. Various events in this war have prompted a raft of conflicting accusations and, especially amid a sensitive story such as this, it's important that evidence is presented before any conclusions are reached. In the meantime, Ukrainian officials have said they are looking into what happened on their side and will comment in due course.

Pro-Russia narrative

This was an insane act of barbarism on the part of Ukraine. Not only did the nation sabotage sensitive prisoner swap negotiations, they violated their bond and obligations to their own citizens, showing an utter disregard for their lives. Actions such as these seriously call into question whether Russia can ever enter into any security agreements or negotiations with Ukraine.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Persistent inequalities in education are not just costing people financially; they are costing them their lives. Closing the education gap globally would help to close the global mortality gap and create a more equitable and just world. With the connections between education and life expectancy now made clear, more work needs to be done to end the cycles of poverty that lead to a lack of education and cause preventable deaths.

Narrative B

Although this is an impressive piece of scholarship, the associations described in this study may not be applicable in the future. In recent years, higher education has had less of a predictable impact on future earnings and quality of life, with issues like high student costs and high costs of living putting additional pressure on students and graduates. The current education model must be adapted to keep up with the ever-changing workforce landscape.

Narrative A

Regardless of its reasoning, PacifiCorp took the wrong approach to the 2020 fires, which were among the worst in Oregon's history. It was negligent when it didn't de-energize the power lines — even after it was warned by officials and emergency responders. Every penny PacifiCorp pays to the victims is justice being served.

Narrative B

Hopefully, PacifiCorp will not only compensate victims of the fires but also learn what it did wrong to avoid more damaging incidents. But it's going to take more than just the utility acting differently to limit wildfire damage in the face of climate change and the historic suppression of fire. The government must beef up its fire response teams and make sure they're on call all year round. Scapegoating a single utility provider without addressing the systemic issues is not a long-term solution.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The lack of international commitment to accepting the Rohingya is disappointing. It's particularly troubling coming from member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which seem to be dealing with growing islamophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment. Even large Muslim-majority countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia, are dealing with this. If a small nation like Bangladesh can house many thousands Rohingya, larger states can, too.

Narrative B

This crisis has been caused by the decrease in global aid for the Rohingya, which dropped below $500M last year. Global bodies should work to collect more donations, and then they can bolster efforts to repatriate these people in Myanmar safely. This may take some time because Myanmar is still a dangerous place for them, but it's positive that countries like China are leading negotiations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Finally, Lake has specifically called out DeWit and forced the left-leaning mainstream media to cover this corruption after her accusation was previously covered as though it was a conspiracy theory. Lake brought receipts to show what elites in DC are willing to do to maintain their grip on power. This is why the US Senate needs someone like Lake.

Left narrative

Lake, who often wears a wire for some inexplicable reason, is clearly guilty of entrapping DeWit, whom the MAGA wing of the GOP has been trying to oust. Lake's too much a devoted champion of another Trump and his conspiracies to be trusted. No one should fall for these bad-faith actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Lake will be the 2024 Republican nominee for vice president on Election Day, according to the Metaculus prediction community.