Anti-Trump narrative

To save American democracy, SCOTUS must reject Trump's argument and prevent the transformation of the office of the presidency into that of an uncheckable authoritarian ruler. Criminal liability ensures public officials have accountability.

Pro-Trump narrative

With Democrats again weaponizing the justice system against Trump, it's important for SCOTUS to step up and protect him and his right to appeal an unfair ruling. The case was rigged against him at the appellate court level, but hopefully, justice will be served at the nation's highest court.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that Trump will be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Willis prosecuted the former president for political and personal benefit — offenses worthy of disqualification. She not only paid Wade hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars to go on luxury vacations, but she failed to publicly disclose her personal financial benefit from it. Why would she hide her financial stake in Wade's hiring if she did nothing wrong?

Democratic narrative

Whether Willis hired a romantic partner or not has no bearing on this case. She has also, under sworn testimony, stated that the costs of vacations she took with Wade were split evenly — which rules out her hiring him for personal financial benefit. This case is of national importance and must continue despite unfounded and bad-faith complaints from the pro-Trump camp.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Thaksin Shinawatra remains one of Thailand's most divisive political figures. His release from prison at a tense political time shows that the Thai elite isn't committed to democracy. When rival forces join hands to release a populist leader accused of severe human rights abuses, it's clear that the country's powerful conservative and royalist establishment wants to protect the status quo at any cost.

Narrative B

Thaksin's release isn't politically motivated — he had met the criteria for parole as he's over 70, suffers from chronic illness, and has completed his six months. He represents the people at the grassroots level, which is why Thaksin has been a central figure in Thai politics for two decades. Now that he's free, Thaksin could serve the country again, balance urban and rural interests, and bring long-sought political stability.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that Thailand will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Given Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Hamas' attack on Israel, and China's assertiveness in the South China Sea, global military spending has surged, generating global instability. The world spent $2.2T on weapons last year. This year will see an even greater increase in global defense spending, particularly if the West does not want Russia to win in Ukraine. Many governments are increasing weapons production and stockpiling to prepare for potential long-term conflicts.

Establishment-critical narrative

The UN has failed with its basic purpose — to maintain international peace and security. The UN Security Council is paralyzed by more than dozens of military conflicts around the world, and the international body must act immediately to address them. In the absence of a strong UN, military spending is rising. The "rules-based international order" is clearly not functioning well given the failure of its institutions to curb global arms spending and conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the world will spend 2.3% of world GDP on military expenses in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As dementia diagnostic technology grows more and more accurate, it's now time to get the countless people who knowingly and unknowingly suffer from this disease access to this potentially life-saving technology. This can include putting patients with dementia symptoms into clinical trials like these, as well as starting to produce and distribute such blood tests throughout society at large.

Narrative B

While developing state-of-the-art diagnostic tests is certainly important, the public should also be aware of known preventative steps people can take to minimize the risk of developing dementia. Leading medical institutions, such as the journal The Lancet, have suggested that low education levels, hearing loss, obesity, and high blood pressure, among other things, are all fixable comorbidities linked to dementia. It's vital to address root-cause stressors.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that there will be a breakthrough in protein structure prediction by 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Republicans who voted to pass this bill are turncoats who are out of touch with the will of the people. The time has come to stop throwing good money after bad in a Ukraine-Russia war that is at a stalemate at best and continues to cost Ukraine uncountable lives and riches. Fortunately, the GOP-led House will do the right thing and kill this bill while getting to work on legislation to address the southern border crisis.

Democratic narrative

Republicans in both chambers who oppose this bill clearly don't value the national security of the US and its allies. Western democracy as we know it is at stake, yet Republicans keep playing games over border provisions — which they seem to oppose or beg for depending on which way the wind is blowing. All measures to get this bill through the House should be utilized.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The problem with comparing COVID to the flu or RSV is that the latter pair of illnesses can't lead to long forms, as is the case with Long COVID. The five-day isolation rule was and still should be used to ensure that those who have contracted the illness — whether asymptomatic or not — don't give it to someone else who could then develop long-term issues.

Narrative B

Isolating over minor symptoms was something we did early during COVID — but the pandemic is now over and it's time to move on. One of the most serious issues related to this is the skyrocketing rates of chronic absenteeism across America's schools. Despite most governments having dropped old COVID rules, record numbers of students are still using the memory of the pandemic as an excuse to skip class and stop learning.

Nerd narrative

There is a 5% chance that a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC (Variant of Concern) or worse will result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States before July 1, 2025, according to Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas' military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas once and for all to ensure Israel's security. To eliminate its capacity for terror, Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to rout Hamas forces, as they are so deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. Indeed, the recent rescue operation into Rafah proves that Israel's tactics are bearing fruit. Israel has worked hard to compromise and ensure the safety of civilians, but it will have to go into Rafah if an agreement is not reached soon.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, as over 1M Palestinians barely survive in dense and muddy tent camps while battling famine and disease. If Israel were to push into Rafah as it did Gaza City and Khan Younis, the consequences would be absolutely dire.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has the leverage needed to ensure that Lebanon gains if any agreement is reached.

Republican narrative

Despite the Fed hiking interest rates astronomically, the Biden administration has failed to get inflation under control. The American people can see the president's failures every time they open their wallets. This latest report means the Fed won't be cutting rates, and the US economy will remain shackled by Biden's inflation.

Democratic narrative

It's unrealistic for the economy to beat every monthly forecast. But inflation has been cooling dramatically and that trend continued in January. Under Biden, the economy is better than it was a year ago and is on its way to a full recovery. Bideneconomics continues to be a boon to the American consumer.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that US core CPI inflation will be above 3% in Dec. 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Indonesia's overall corruption level has risen since Widodo took office. A blatant example of this was the outgoing president's decision to dissolve the Corruption Eradication Commission, which was developed during the post-dictatorship anti-corruption movement in 2004. Widodo has intentionally freed corrupt government officials from the eyes of the law, so it makes sense that he'd interfere in an election, too.

Narrative B

If the endorsement of President Widodo was supposed to be an indictment on Prabowo's character, the opinion polls would beg to differ. The reason Prabowo is now the frontrunner in this race is because of his connection to Widodo, whose popularity is also quite strong. Widodo and his preferred candidate are also polling well with younger voters — a demographic a duly elected leader usually needs.