Right narrative

The Alabama Supreme Court has read the constitution's wrongful death statute broadly and ensured the comprehensive protection of the rights of unborn children by placing them under the state's responsibility. They have reaffirmed their belief in the sanctity of life, grounded in traditional values.

Left narrative

This ruling is dangerously theocratic and is now looming over millions of couples looking to become parents through in vitro fertilization. The invocation of "personhood right" to embryos prioritizes the unborn over biological parents, which is illogical. Even the process of natural reproduction often witnesses embryo loss, making this a bad-faith ruling all around.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that Republicans will support embryo selection for intelligence more than Democrats, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Houthis have carried out another unprovoked attack, but it's not comparable to the damage Yemeni terrorists have inflicted on international shipping in the Red Sea. So the US will continue operating in the area to protect the freedom of navigation and uphold the rule of law. The US is taking out Houthi drones every day and its strikes will continue until these terrorists are defeated and cease operations.

Establishment-critical narrative

This proves that US-led strikes against the Houthis are failing to deter their attacks and instead are boosting the Houthis' standing in the Arab world. The US is running out of options against the Houthis' asymmetric tactics, which have been well-tested by the last decade of war in Yemen. The best way to avoid expanding this conflict is a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

The Kremlin is employing its entire arsenal of subversive activities against the Baltic countries. This follows the intimidation of Prime Minister Kallas, and several other politicians, who were added to Russia's wanted list last week. It is a tried-and-true strategy of instilling fear, as anyone who has ever lived under Russian rule can attest. This has just demonstrated that Estonia is correctly supporting Ukraine and strengthening European defenses, despite Moscow's intention to silence critics.

Pro-Russia narrative

The security services of Estonia are working around the clock to try to find a Russian connection to any crime there — even when there is no crime to be found. Russian President Vladimir Putin has often stated that Moscow has no geopolitical interest in attacking a NATO member. This, of course, includes Estonia and the other two Baltic nations. It's completely untrue to say that the Kremlin has any territorial interests in the Baltics — there's simply no rationale or desire for that from the Kremlin's perspective.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

MSP law is not the solution. Since supply and demand vary through seasons, once the demand is met through buying based on MSP, the rest of the crop can be rendered useless. Farmers will wind up bearing the brunt since those buying at prices lower than MSP amid weak demand could be punished by law.

Left narrative

The BJP must implement the cost-effective and fair MSPs that farmers deserve. The truth is that farmers would only produce enough to meet supply, and thus only profit from MSP. What the government actually wants is to keep prices low so that labor costs remain low to benefit business elites. If the BJP offered workers liveable wages, these protests would go away.

Nerd narrative

There's an 85% chance that the BJP will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

There are many dangers emerging as a result of AI deepfakes, the most prominent being sexually explicit content — which grew by 400% from 2023. Not only this, but malicious actors are also using this technology to create fake videos of politicians and artificially sway political opinions across the world. The world's leading AI experts, from independent academics to tech executives developing AI, are right in sounding the alarm on the incoming threats we face if governments don't take measures to strongly regulate deepfakes.

Narrative B

While there are deepfakes that should absolutely be banned — especially pornography — this technology isn't only used for nefarious purposes, and any infringement on free speech must be carefully avoided. For instance, deepfakes provide a promising new tool in a long line of satirical techniques that have been used throughout history to maintain a balance of power between rulers and those they rule. Regulation should be judiciously and carefully curated to prevent the dark aspects of deepfakes while also allowing people to critique, and even mock, the powers that be.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that the US will restrict deepfake technology use to approved applications before 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Democratic narrative

The news of Smirnov's indictment is a further damning blow to Congressional Republicans, who continue to lead a witch hunt against the Biden family. It's ironically only because of the incessant nature of the GOP's reckless attack on Joe and Hunter Biden that Smirnov has been charged. The reality of Smirnov's lies is yet another shadow upon an embarrassing year for a desperate Republican Party.

Republican narrative

Hunter Biden's team is using an unintentional mistake and the lies of a previously trusted informant to undermine America's legal system. Yet reality remains the same Hunter Biden was ready to admit guilt when offered a plea deal concerning his tax evasion, and his laptop contains a plethora of damning evidence of drug use while possessing a firearm. These events by no means prove any innocence, and accusations of corruption within the Biden family remain substantial.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Anti-Trump forces in the US have been weaponizing the justice system against the former president ever since he won the 2016 election. And their lawfare has gone beyond Trump to deliver harsh sentences for nonviolent acts to his allies and supporters. If Biden has his way, Trump will be imprisoned until he dies just like Navalny.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's audacity in comparing his plight to that of Navalny — who returned to Russia knowing the odds were he would wind up a martyr — is horrifying. Unlike Navalny, Trump has been granted all the constitutional privileges and safeguards of the justice system. If anything, Trump and his dictatorial tendencies compare favorably to Putin's authoritarianism.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from minimizing Israel's legitimate security concerns. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.

Pro-Israel narrative

The ICJ has no authority over Israel and is cynically accusing the country of committing crimes akin to those committed by dictators like Vladimir Putin, which is both delusional and illegitimate. A small fraction of Israeli soldiers, of course, likely have committed crimes, but Israel justly prosecutes them. Unlike the myriad of brutal autocracies one may find just across the Middle East, it's simply absurd to assume that Israel, a democratic state, would be guilty of the systematic war crimes it is accused of as it fights terrorism.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israeli forces are committing daily massacres in the Gaza Strip, demonstrating the urgency with which the international community must apply more pressure on Israel and the US to accept a permanent cease-fire and end this brutal campaign. The US is effectively isolating itself from its Arab partners and the rest of the world by diverging from even its Western allies in terms of its support for Israel's slaughter. To get the hostages back, Israel must withdraw from Gaza and end the bloodshed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is a momentous victory over LockBit that will punish the world’s largest ransomware gang and send a message to cyber criminals at large. The long-running operation involved building sophisticated systems that can beat hackers at their own game, an approach that can serve as a road map for dealing with future ransomware syndicates.

Establishment-critical narrative

International law enforcement agencies deserve kudos for this operation, but the disruption is unlikely to yield massive changes in the world of cybersecurity. Due to syndacites' decentralized nature, and the fact that most hackers reside in Russia, it's virtually impossible to truly dismantle LockBit, and other ransomware gangs are waiting in the wings to fill the void. Law enforcement can't be complacent.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc., that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way will occur before January 1st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

After the conservative Supreme Court struck down Pres. Joe Biden’s comprehensive loan forgiveness plan, the administration has worked to bring desperately needed relief to as many borrowers as possible. Under the SAVE plan, the Biden administration has provided relief for nearly 4M borrowers, including those who are public servants or are struggling financially. Biden is committed to helping borrowers navigate their student loans, and he will continue to fight for all people looking to repay their debts.

Republican narrative

Joe Biden isn't even trying to hide the fact that he is essentially bribing millions of Americans into voting for him by canceling their student loan debt. Everyone knows that debt doesn't just disappear, and Biden is shamelessly using taxpayer funds to aid his flailing re-election bid. Biden's email on Wednesday gives the game away, and he should be working to help all American workers instead of trying to buy the votes of a certain group who can't pay the loans that they took out.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the US student loan debt bubble will “pop” by Sept. 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.