Narrative A

Habits and personality traits acquired in early life play a major role in how an individual's body turns out. Studies have shown that children showing low conscientiousness — and are irresponsible, careless, and disorganized — are likely to battle obesity later in life. A key part of being conscientious is developing self-control, which could enable them to evolve into healthy adults.

Narrative B

We must stop viewing obesity as merely a lifestyle disease, with a "lack of will" and nonchalance about one's "looks" as contributing factors. The abnormal or excess accumulation of fat in one's body is a more complex phenomenon and is caused by multiple factors. These include genes, environment, imbalanced food intake, and lack of physical activity. It's a chronic problem, and its treatment could do without the stigma attached to it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 45% of Americans will be obese in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

There's optimism that the latest bipartisan stopgap extension will be the last. Half of the appropriation bills have been agreed upon, and members of Congress now have an additional two weeks to reach consensus over the remaining six. While there's still a way to go, there's a solid chance that all appropriation bills will be passed and the threat of a shutdown will be pushed far into the future.

Establishment-critical narrative

The continual cycle of looming shutdown threats before last-minute deals is an embarrassment. Republicans and Democrats continue to place uncertainty over the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of American workers, and such behavior is symbolic of why Washington's politicians are viewed with contempt by many. Congress must stop playing games with the lives of the American people.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Meta is following the numbers. News content makes up just 3% of Facebook user feeds around the world, so the company is wisely shifting its investments toward things users want. News websites will still be able to share their content across the platform and, once their audience clicks on their website, these companies won't have to share a penny of the revenue with Meta.

Narrative B

Meta's move adversely impacts journalism. A functioning society needs a robust press to cover the stories of the day, but platforms like Facebook make it impossible for journalists to make any money doing their jobs. Governments like Australia tried working with Meta to build a fair system for publishers and the company, but Meta has decided to turn its back on principle in favor of profit.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Meta Platforms will sell Instagram or WhatsApp before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Deadly fires and industrial disasters have been a recurring problem in Bangladesh due to governance and regulation issues. Until government indifference and lax enforcement of fire safety rules give way to a credible and accountable health and safety regulation structure, innocent citizens will continue to lose their lives in tragedies like this one.

Narrative B

It's unfair to point the finger at the Bangladeshi government, which swiftly saved many lives, launched a prompt investigation, and took appropriate measures to hold the culprits accountable. Faulty gas cylinders, defective air conditioners, and poor electrical wiring could have caused the fire. If only the building owners had fixed its structural issues, such a tragedy could have been avoided.

Progressive narrative

This is a hypocritical decision on the part of the EPA, which just a week ago determined that its own proposed regulation wouldn't be enough to reach its 2040 emissions goal. Instead of making its rules even more robust, it's decided to play politics with the environment and roll back the already insufficient power plant regulation plan. The Earth is being polluted at dangerous levels, and the only way to fix it is by slashing greenhouse emissions.

Conservative narrative

Someone at the EPA must have finally realized that it wouldn't be a good idea to shut down 60% of the electric grid — which is essentially what would have happened since the original carbon policy was virtually impossible to follow. The EPA may have also noticed that the Biden administration is trying to double the size of the grid through his electric vehicle ambitions, which would ironically require more electric power, not less.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that the US greenhouse gas emissions will be halved by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

NSO Group is one of the world's leading cyber intelligence companies for a reason. Trusted by governments and law enforcement across the world, NSO technology helps save lives by combatting crime and terrorism. While every company can continue to make itself better, that doesn't mean it should be demonized for providing cutting-edge public safety technology.

Establishment-critical narrative

Pegasus wasn't sold to altruistic governments for the purposes of fighting crime but rather to governments who wanted to spy on journalists, dissidents, and activists. Among the estimated 50K victims of this intrusive spyware were two members of Human Rights Watch targeted by the Jordanian government, another included a Palestinian-American journalist. NSO gives bad actors the power to violate human rights.

Narrative A

Government agencies have been diligent in disrupting ransomware organizations, but they seem to be bouncing back. More must be done to protect healthcare organizations and other vital services from these sorts of attacks. It's going to take a combination of stiffer sanctions on bad actors, improved security for potential victims, and perhaps laws banning ransomware payments to prevent future disruptions.

Narrative B

Whether Change Healthcare did all it could to protect against this type of attack will be determined by ongoing investigations. But in the meantime, it's incumbent upon the company to do more to communicate with medical providers and pharmacies to let them know what's going on and how to keep their practices and businesses afloat while the reimbursement system is in limbo.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that the U.S. will have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Musk's criticism of OpenAI is 100% right. OpenAI has branded itself as a company that will responsibly lead the world into the AI generation in the safest way possible, but it has become beholden to Microsoft. Altman has seemingly thrown his convictions away in order to benefit Microsoft financially and Musk is holding him accountable.

Narrative B

This suit is not in good faith and Musk is wrong for criticizing OpenAI for chasing profits at the same time he's creating his own for-profit AI venture. He's using this lawsuit as part of a dispute with former OpenAI co-founders, which suggests this legal action is less about the future of AI technology.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that OpenAI Inc. will change its mission statement before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Iran narrative

Not only have Iranians at home come out to participate in their country's democratic systems, but a high number cast their ballots from abroad. Despite Western efforts to encourage citizens to stay home, the Iranian people believe in their country and are willing to do what it takes to vote — even from consulates and embassies in foreign countries.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's election integrity issues are on full display. First, Supreme Leader Khamenei cast his vote early in the day so that everyone else knows who to vote for. The country also rolled back its ID requirements, leaving ample opportunity for fraudsters to cast multiple ballots. And, if that wasn't enough, the regime printed millions of unnecessary extra ballots, which will also give it the ability to ensure the success of its preferred candidates.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by January 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

This case completely exposes the political weaponization of the Justice Department by the Biden administration. The DOJ violated many of its own rules to infringe on the former president’s rights and this case is a sham. Rather than delaying this trial, it should be canceled.

Anti-Trump narrative

This trial should start sooner rather than later. Trump's team is pulling out every trick in the book to delay the proceedings against him, hoping that his judicial appointees will do him a favor. He knows that if he delays long enough and wins the presidency in November, he can avoid prosecution.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Trump's classified documents federal criminal trial will begin by April 3, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.