Pro-establishment narrative

Nuland's retirement marks the loss of a courageous advocate of the democratic values that shape US foreign policy. It was Nuland who rightly warned against Moscow's expansionism and played a key role in the US response to Russia's Ukraine invasion. Nuland's plans to retire may indicate that Washington will place more emphasis on US-China relations, but her decades of advocacy for democracy and freedom have left their mark on US foreign policy.

Establishment-critical narrative

Nuland's departure is to be welcomed, as she personified a US foreign policy characterized by arrogance and ideological hubris. As a liberal hawk, she not only promoted interventionism that sowed instability around the world, but was also one of the most aggressive proponents of NATO expansion and the US proxy war against Russia. That she was able to maintain a prominent role in US foreign policy for decades speaks volumes about how little the art of diplomacy is valued in US foreign policy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance, that Ukraine will join NATO before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Anti-nuke activists have stressed the appalling immorality of these weapons for decades, but they still proliferate because many see them as a necessity. But the moral argument against them would be more convincingly made if first leaders could be convinced they're useless — which history proves is the case.

Narrative B

Just because there's great opposition to nuclear weapons doesn't mean proliferation is bad. If anything, history has shown that when new nations obtain nuclear weapons, military imbalances are reduced and stability on regional and international levels is achieved.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated as an act of war by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

With their assault, the Houthis have proved that they've lost all respect for human life in their reckless campaign against international shipping in one of the world's most vital shipping lanes. In their indiscriminate attacks, the terrorists are now even turning on ships bound for their main sponsor, Iran, and vessels loaded with aid for the people of Yemen, whose plight is irrelevant to them. Washington and its allies have no choice but to step up their efforts to hold the Houthis accountable until they cease their destabilizing aggression.

Establishment-critical narrative

The sailors' death is regrettable, but it is the result of the US-led aggression against Yemen, launched by Washington and its vassals to detract attention from Israel's atrocities in Gaza. Moreover, the latest Houthi attack proves that the US war machine is failing to break the resistance of the Yemenis in their just struggle. The Houthis will continue their attacks on ships destined for Israel, including US and British ships, in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza who have been betrayed by the alleged champions of human rights.

Nerd narrative

There is a 3% chance, that the submarine cables running through the Red Sea will be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

Chinese tech theft is estimated to cost the US $500B a year, and America continues to allow Beijing to sap cutting-edge information from sectors such as AI with little deterrent. While Washington must continue to attract the world's brightest to work in America, the reality remains that the obligation to commit espionage is a staple of Chinese domestic law, and the current inability to combat this problem must be viewed as a national emergency.

Pro-China narrative

Accusations of Chinese tech developments being the product of espionage and theft are both rooted in racism and ignorance of the US' own malicious global spy system. Chinese success is the product of Chinese sacrifice and hard work — to invent rumors of tech theft is to merely expose the West's anxiety over Beijing's continued growth.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that China will be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While Hannah Gutierrez-Reed was likely not the only one at fault here, her prosecution and conviction are completely reasonable given that all weapons and ammunition were her responsibility. Besides, it's not as if she's a scapegoat since Baldwin will face his own trial and could end up being convicted. Several of those who were reckless in handling the weapon have already faced the consequences or are about to.

Narrative B

This case is not as cut-and-dry as some are making it out to be. Not only was Gutierrez-Reed in charge of weapons, but due to budget cuts, the production team put her in charge of props as well. She was, therefore, one person covering what should have been handled by two people. Further, texts and emails show the production team repeatedly ignored her requests for more attention on weapon safety and training for Baldwin. She's being punished for the willful neglect of the movie executives.

Anti-China narrative

US lawmakers used to be able to trust China, but recent events have made that impossible. As long as Americans have no idea what information Beijing is collecting, national security is at risk. This ban will protect users or force ByteDance to find a US owner for TikTok.

Pro-China narrative

This is nothing but a campaign tactic by lawmakers to increase China-based xenophobia ahead of the 2024 election. TikTok is nothing more than a useful tool for boosting business, teaching, and entertaining hundreds of millions of Americans, but US politicians are again putting their political gain over the wants of the people.

Narrative C

Like state bans of TikTok, this attempt to strip the app from Americans likely won't survive a First Amendment challenge. Instead of banning the app, the government should boost its privacy initiatives to protect users' data. The government should always be more interested in protecting privacy than limiting speech.

Narrative D

The free speech aspect of this debate goes far beyond the US-China issue. Banning TikTok — whose algorithm allows political information to spread much faster than any other platform — is a tactic that has already been used by governments to suppress dissent. Nepal, for instance, banned TikTok after people used the app to criticize a recent presidential pardon. No matter why the government does it, banning a popular digital platform sets a precedent for other apps to be banned when the elites no longer like the content it hosts.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This is a complex issue, but Republican lawmakers have managed to pass a bill that gives assurances to IVF providers that they won't face unfair scrutiny if things go awry, and recipients of IVF are now free to pursue the families they desire. The Supreme Court's ruling that embryos enjoy personhood can be addressed at a later date.

Democratic narrative

The protection provided by this law will play an important role in giving IVF providers confidence, and it's great that many of these providers have decided to restart the service. But the personhood issue is still on the table, and as long as embryos could be afforded the same rights as children, there'll always be a chilling effect. Lawmakers must rebuke the Supreme Court.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-North Korea narrative

Kim is taking initiatives to bolster defense against hostile adversaries because he has no choice. He has repeatedly called for the US and South Korea to tamp down their aggressive military exercises to no avail — and their leaders even have the nerve to call North Korea the aggressors. As long as the US and South Korea are saber-rattling, Kim will make sure North Korea is as prepared as possible.

Anti-North Korea Narrative

Kim's aggressive actions and words are pushing for war between North Korea and the US. Pyongyang has celebrated its development of a nuclear weapons program and has conducted many missile tests in close proximity to South Korea. Now Kim's military is conducting “actual war drills” while claiming he's just worried about self-defense. The US and South Korea have had to bolster their militaries just in case Kim crosses the line.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be war between North Korea and South Korea before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Back-to-back years of record-breaking heat paint a grim picture of the future, but there's still time to reverse course. By reducing CO2 emissions to levels laid out by scientists, the world can prevent even larger swaths of the population from suffering the effects of extreme weather and possibly heal some impacted regions of Earth.

Narrative B

The best approach to climate change is adapting to it. Thousands of years ago, ancient civilizations dealt with droughts through agricultural wisdom passed down organically. The world must fend off the elites' attempts to reap profits from top-down climate change remedies and instead take a cue from the persistence of past generations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be a five-year period with an average global temperature greater than 3.6˚C warmer than the 1880 baseline before Jan. 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. This war needs to wind down, and all of the main actors involved must work toward a more permanent resolution. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden admin. needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Neither Hamas nor Hezbollah are interested in negotiating in good faith, and the current status quo in both the north and south is unacceptable. In contrast to the terrorist tactics of Israel's enemies, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone else.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden admin., increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to deter Israel from continuing the war in Gaza or violating Lebanon's sovereignty, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has the leverage needed to ensure that Lebanon gains if any agreement is reached.