Narrative A

Altman's return caps a dramatic period of upheaval that saw him removed amid justifiably furious debate about the advantages and risks of harnessing AI's potential. Now, OpenAI can finally settle down and refocus on spearheading the world's AI trajectory. Besides Altman's welcome return, the company board has garnered solid experience and leadership to ensure growth and fulfill its mission of ensuring that AI works for the common good of humanity.

Narrative B

Though Sam Altman's return to OpenAI's board appears to lay a confusing episode to rest, the multiple debates in the technology field that set it in motion continue. From concerns over who spearheads the world's movement towards an AI-oriented future, to whether innovation should always be welcomed and whether corporate and public interests are aligned regarding this new frontier, the world still needs answers. Companies like OpenAI cannot be left alone in deciding the answers to these questions which have consequences for all humanity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that OpenAI will be a public company on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

While Haitians reject the gang violence, they support the demand for the incompetent and power-hungry Ariel Henry to step down. Unfortunately, only the escalation of violence convinced the Americans to urge their puppet lacking legitimacy and popular support to resign. Haitians are struggling to free themselves from the shackles of foreign control and meddling. Only when the Haitian people, and no longer Washington, determine their political fate will the country find stability and peace in a multipolar world.

Pro-establishment narrative

Recent events highlight yet again that violent gangs are seeking to plunge Haiti into chaos as they attempt to dictate the country's political fate. Reports that the US is urging the Haitian Prime Minister to resign over the chaos are false. Rather, Washington is concerned with speeding up a peaceful transition of power through an inclusive governance structure to prepare for a UN-authorized security mission and put Haiti back on the path to democracy within a rules-based order.

Nerd narrative

There is a 85% chance, that Ariel Henry will cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Chega is merely five years old, and it was obviously not expecting a full-scale victory. Estimates suggested it would corner 20% of the vote share. Therefore, an 18% share should be perfectly acceptable and indicate a humongous rise from the 1.3% it had in 2019 and 7.2% in 2022. Its goal of rupturing Portugal's five-decade-old bipartisan system has now been achieved, which is a major accomplishment.

Left narrative

Chega's gaining of electoral legitimacy in Portugal is part of a broader trend in Europe. In recent years, far-right political parties have strengthened in Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, France, and Germany. They have risen either as standalone entities or in alliances. Besides mainstream items on its agenda like fighting corruption and stricter immigration checks, Chega also proposes controversial measures like chemical castration for sex offenders. Warning bells ought to go off at least now in Europe.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that any Member State will leave the Eurozone before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Reports like this show that poor mental health across Europe and North America is an indication that being rich or economically developed doesn't translate to greater life satisfaction. This report is a call to action to take greater care when exposing younger people to certain technologies and to strengthen social and family bonds in order to foster genuine happiness in wealthier countries.

Narrative B

Conflating emotional health with happiness sometimes makes measuring the mental well-being of individuals worldwide tricky. As regards this report, while it shows a lack of recovery from the pandemic's initial mental health toll, there may have been a reporting bias, as only internet-connected populations could respond to the survey.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the World Happiness Report will rank the US at least 18th in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Obviously, the DOJ's 2021 deal, which was supposed to hold Boeing to account for the crashes that killed more than 300 people, didn't do enough to cause change at the company. Boeing was allowed to buy its way out of trouble. The Jan. 5 incident will hopefully reinvigorate the DOJ to do what it takes to hold Boeing accountable for its lax safety standards.

Narrative B

The National Transportation Safety Board is already probing what may have led to the Jan. 5 incident and whether Boeing's lack of dedication to safety led to the plug blowing off the aircraft. The DOJ getting involved at this point could intimidate witnesses who are cooperating with the Board but might clam up if there's a risk of criminal charges. It could be too early for the DOJ to interject.

Nerd narrative

There is a 40% chance that by 2050, it will be possible to purchase a zero-emissions flight from New York to London for less than half US weekly household income, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

Narrative A

This is a potential game changer in reproductive science. This still-developing technology likely has a long road before it's approved for usage in humans, but the science is promising and the impact on individuals facing infertility could be tremendous.

Narrative B

Infertility can be upsetting for many couples, who often turn to emerging reproductive technologies, but many of these processes have ethical implications. Most concerning is the fact that many human embryos will be created for the sole purpose of experimentation and then destroyed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the first cloned human will be born by July 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

These elections were flawed from the beginning and, with authorities carrying out blatant lawfare against Khan and his PTI, this outcome was widely anticipated. What's surprising, however, is that the US has failed to take stronger action to ensure that its treaty ally has a free and fair vote, despite Biden arguing that promoting democracy overseas is the defining challenge of our time.

Narrative B

There's no valid evidence that rigging or controversy marred this polling process. However, the West has sought to outrageously meddle in Pakistan's internal affairs, voicing unfounded concerns over the vote while baselessly demanding probes into alleged irregularities. Pakistan's sovereignty, its rule of law, and the results of its election must be internationally respected.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

While Democrats do have a strong message against MAGA anti-democratic extremism in the run-up to the November elections, they can undermine that if a liability such as Sen. Menendez remains in their ranks. It's utterly contradictory that the party that stands for the rule of law in the US still accepts a sitting senator under federal indictment on bribery allegations. The party has a chance to do the right thing.

Republican narrative

Set aside the fact that Democrats control the Senate, Republicans should do much more to expel the corrupt Menendez — particularly when compared to the GOP push to oust George Santos from the House. The GOP must take the bull by the horns and firmly expel Menendez from Congress and take a stand against corruption from the Democratic Party, which is barely hanging onto Senate control and knows it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While this theory still needs more research and scrutiny, the "dark matter consensus" should be called into question. It certainly is plausible that as you go further out to the edges of a galaxy and lose the gravitational pull of stars, the movements of the universe itself likely take over as the cause of orbits.

Narrative B

Dark matter is the current scientific consensus because researchers have actually found evidence of it. If the laws of physics are to be followed, galaxies that are orbiting faster than the amount of visible matter contained in them must have a sort of invisible matter doing the work behind the scenes. There is a solid basis to believe that dark matter permeates the universe around us.

Nerd narrative

There's a 51% chance that we will know what Dark Matter is before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and this disaster must be remedied. So the US is taking its own steps to alleviate this dreadful situation.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden administration must refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas isn't interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. In contrast, Israel has done everything it can to ensure the safety of civilians in a war it did not want. Israel will pursue its goals — which are incredibly popular with its citizens — regardless of whether it annoys Washington or anyone.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Because it's increasingly anxious over the upcoming US presidential election, the Biden administration is resorting to cheap tactics to deny it's supporting Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — incentivizing continued bloodshed. While Palestinians starve, Biden is describing grossly insufficient plans for new aid delivery mechanisms when he should be putting a stop to Israel's criminal behavior.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Progressive narrative

No matter what Rishi Sunak and his government might say, it's clear that he is complicit in the anti-Muslim rhetoric of his fellow Tories. Sunak is engaging in performative gestures by giving lukewarm speeches condemning "extremism" and providing some money to certain causes, but he has failed time and again to meaningfully put an end to the Islamophobia plaguing Britain.

Conservative narrative

As tensions continue to rise across Britain and the world, Rishi Sunak is trying his best to unify Brits of all creeds and beliefs. Extremism has no place in the UK, and Sunak’s government is doing its best to fight the horrific rise of antisemitism as well as Islamophobia that has happened since Oct. 7. Sunak and the Tories will continue to protect the UK's Jewish and Muslim communities from religious and ethnic hatred.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that the Torries led by Rishi Sunak will form the first government after the next UK election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.