Now Is Not the Time to Negotiate with Putin
The BulwarkNov 07, 2022
In an interview with the Associated Press, Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuelba said his country wants a UN-backed peace summit — mediated by Sec. General António Guterres — by the end of February, on or near the one-year anniversary of the war.
However, Kuelba said he doesn't envision Russia taking part, given that one of Ukraine's requirements is that Russia faces a war-crimes tribunal before Kyiv directly engages with Moscow. Kuelba said other countries should feel free to engage directly with Russia.
As the White House and others have noted, any peace settlement should come on Ukraine's terms. This includes restoration of territorial integrity, compensation and war-crimes prosecutions. It should also come with meaningul security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.
A sober analysis shows Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russian troops from all its territory. The longer the war goes on, the worse it gets for Ukraine, while increasing the chances of a hot war between Russia, the US, and NATO. The Biden administration has a duty to try and find a negotiated end to the war.
There is a 1% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.