Weaponizing Energy Will Hurt Russia the Most
TimeSep 28, 2022
On Thursday, the French natural gas grid operator GRTgaz announced that the country started direct gas deliveries to Germany, making good on an energy cooperation agreement struck in September to offset Russian supply cuts.
This wraps up efforts over the past months to allow pipeline networks to flow eastbound, reverting their original direction as France has been less reliant on Russian energy than Germany.
Though some have deemed Putin a great strategist, his latest moves reveal a wild gambler prone to mistakes. Yes, weaponizing natural gas will inflict some damage to the West in the short term, punishing it for supporting Ukraine. But this move will be much more detrimental to Russia's long-term position as Europe has sought alternative energy suppliers and cut its dependence on Russian energy.
The Western arrogance and pride that contributed to the emergence of the conflict in Ukraine are also behind the ongoing European energy crisis. Moscow's decision to cut off gas supplies comes as a major diplomatic failure to Europe, which has been waging an economic war against the entire Russian population while offering no path to negotiations.
There's a 2% chance that Nord Stream 2 will be completed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.