War on Gaza: Israel is dragging the US into a future regional war
Middle East EyeMar 22
Airstrikes, Rocket Fire Kill 17 on Lebanon-Israel Border
The Facts
Wednesday was the deadliest day on the Lebanese border since hostilities between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah erupted a day after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, with 16 Lebanese being killed in Israeli airstrikes and one Israeli killed from rocket fire. The Israeli strikes reportedly targeted positions held by Hezbollah and other allied armed groups.
The fighting has killed almost 300 people, primarily Hezbollah members, as international players work toward a diplomatic solution. The head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command said that the war "doesn't end with Hezbollah."
The Spin
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is pushing the region to the breaking point, and the US must end its policies of shielding its close ally from any accountability for the unending atrocities it is committing in Gaza and Lebanon. In addition to the moral bankruptcy Israel has demonstrated throughout this war and before it, the US has no strategic interest in supporting Israel's aggression. By haphazardly tying his political future to Benjamin Netanyahu, Pres. Joe Biden has foolishly created a situation he cannot control. The whole region could explode if Israel is not reigned in.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel and its allies must not succumb to the UN's bad-faith rhetoric. International agencies have never cared about Palestinians, instead preferring to spend their time bashing Israel. Unfortunately, after caving to pro-Hamas fanatics, it seems that Biden is willing to throw Israelis under the bus to try and salvage his political career. The world has forgotten the atrocities Hamas committed on Oct. 7 and Israel's moral duty to protect its citizens.
Narrative D
Hezbollah and the regional resistance will only end their attacks when Israel's war in Gaza ends and it withdraws its forces. Indeed, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a far larger regional war. Foreign powers believe they can dictate to Hezbollah how it deals with Israel's aggression and impose concessions regarding the status of Lebanon's southern border. However, Hezbollah has the leverage needed to ensure that Lebanon gains if any agreement is reached.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.