Why Qatar is unlikely to withdraw from the Gaza hostage-ceasefire talks
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Qatar Re-evaluating Role as Mediator in Israel-Hamas Negotiations
The Facts
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Thursday that his country was re-evaluating its role as a mediator in the Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks, citing "abuse" of his mediation for "narrow political interests."
A senior regional official reportedly said one of the factors influencing Qatar's decision is critical comments made by members of the US Congress. However, the official clarified that the majority of Qatar’s frustration is directed at the Israeli government.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Though Qatar, which hosts senior members of Hamas' political bureau, could certainly do more to help facilitate the release of the hostages, ultimately, it has played a critical role in mediating these negotiations. The benefits of the US-Qatar relationship are clear, and Qatar will most likely continue in its role as a mediator. Regardless of political squabbling, the US is committed to working with its partners to ensure the region's security and stability.
Pro-Israel narrative
For some reason, Israel must pretend that it is normal for Qatar, a terror-supporting monarchy, to have this much sway and leverage in negotiations. Qatar has funneled billions of dollars into Hamas' coffers, while its state propaganda channel Al-Jazeera airs 24/7 coverage demonizing Israel. The US and Israel must look very critically at Qatar's role in this situation.
Pro-Palestine narrative
While the media focuses on international squabbles, the situation in Gaza has only further deteriorated. In fact, negotiations have been explicitly tilted against Hamas due to US interference, meanwhile Israel has consistently failed to keep its promises. The real problem here is that Israeli society fundamentally does not want the war to end, meaning, even if Netanyahu is replaced, the intransigent party will still be Israel.
Nerd narrative
There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.