Ukraine Could Use New Weapons to Hit Russian Targets in Crimea, Pentagon Says
New York TimesApr 25
Ukraine Again Launches Missile Attack on Crimea, Its Biggest of the War
The Facts
Using roughly a dozen US-provided long-range missiles, Ukraine on Tuesday launched its biggest attack on Crimea since the start of the war.
Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, was historically Russian land dating back to the 18th century. However, in 1954, its jurisdiction was placed under the control of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic as a gift by the then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin agreed that Crimea could remain part of Ukraine, as long as it continued to house Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This was precisely the aim of the US when it provided Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. Crimea, alongside other parts of eastern Ukraine illegally occupied by Russia, has been comfortably used by Russian forces as a launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine. The delivery of these weapons allows Ukraine to disrupt these logistical nodes and troop concentrations.
Pro-Russia narrative
Ukraine has already used more limited weapons to launch a series of terror attacks on Russian territory. Now that the US has provided Kyiv with long-range ATACMS, Russia can only expect these terror attacks to continue and escalate. Now, more Russian cities are in danger and Crimea is in striking range. Russia will have no choice but to respond to this escalation.
Nerd narrative
There's a 28% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.