Russia's Poorly Trained Troops Can't Dislodge Ukraine From Key Foothold—UK
NewsweekJan 21
Ukraine: Russia Presses Forward in the East
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The Facts
As the Russia-Ukraine war creeps toward the two-year mark, Russian forces continue to make confirmed territorial advances in Ukraine, according to the latest battlefield analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). While fighting continues to be reported across the frontline — from Kharkiv in the northeast; down through the Donbas; and onwards southwest through Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — Russia's reported advances largely come in the east.
After the waning of Ukraine's counteroffensive last year, Russia launched new military operations in October — including pouring in an estimated 40K troops near the Donetsk city of Avdiivka. By the following month, Russia had encircled the city from three directions and was closing in.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia's troops are poorly trained and poorly coordinated. For this reason, they've largely been unable to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from their positions. This is best shown in the Kherson region, but it's also largely true of the Russian war effort elsewhere. Russia's small gains so far have been insignificant in the wider scope of the conflict.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite what's reported in the media, all is not well in Ukraine. For one, it has lost virtually a whole generation of men. If they're not still on the frontlines and haven't already been killed, they've fled the country to avoid the fighting. Now, Russia is making sweeping advances and thousands more Ukrainian troops will perish without good reason. Ukraine needs to negotiate for peace to avoid this unnecessary sacrifice of men.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by March 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.