Biden tells Netanyahu US will not participate in counter-strike against Iran
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UN: Israel Still Imposing 'Unlawful' Restrictions on Humanitarian Aid
The Facts
The UN human rights office said on Tuesday that Israel still has "unlawful" restrictions on humanitarian aid intended for Gaza in place and is still carrying out "widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure." Israel and the US have recently argued that aid flows into Gaza have expanded.
Regarding Iran's attack over the weekend, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told American Jewish leaders on Tuesday that further escalation with Iran is not in the interests of either the US or Israel, but the US "would never tell Israel what to do."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel deter military threats while also preventing regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always defend Israel's right to security. Nonetheless, it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Thankfully, Israel, with the assistance of the US and its regional allies, managed to effectively counter Iran's attack, and any further military actions are completely unnecessary.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over six months, Israel has failed to effectively achieve any of its goals and has only made itself more insecure. Even if Israel managed to realize its vision for Gaza, there's a high likelihood that Israel would still be in a worse position than it was before Oct. 7. By destroying Gaza and starving its people, all Israel has done is isolate itself and increase the danger it is in by purposefully escalating regional tensions.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though, of course, this war has not been easy, the situation has now come to a head and Israel must act decisively. For too long, Israel has been reluctant to appropriately respond to Iran and its terrorist proxies. Now, however, Iran's recent attack demonstrates that Israel's position in the region, specifically the Arab world, is stronger than ever. Israel must act decisively, but intelligently, to deter Iranian aggression.
Pro-Iran narrative
Iran continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, as the attack over the weekend will openly serve as a wake-up call to Israel to end this series of escalations. Iran and its allies have been clear from day one that they do not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Iran only seeks to end Israel's crimes in Gaza, to which it has been forced to respond. Israel made a mistake in believing that Iran would not retaliate over its provocations, and Iran will continue to calculate its moves appropriately.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that there will be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.