Republican narrative

The Biden admin. had a major chain of command failure here. Amid tensions in the Middle East, it's unfathomable that Austin's hospitalization was hidden for at least three days. The Department of Defense must come clean about what exactly prevented one of the country's two National Command Authorities from carrying out his duties, especially when he is required to be present at a moment's notice to respond to any national security crisis. Congress must investigate this further.

Democratic narrative

Austin has taken full responsibility for not disclosing his condition sooner, and though he is still hospitalized, he has resumed his duties. There could be a myriad of reasons, including hospital space considerations and his privacy, as to why his absence was kept a secret. All details about his medical procedure, how serious it was, and how and when his responsibilities were delegated will be released as soon as possible. The Biden administration still has full confidence in its Secretary of Defense.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

2024 will see a series of attempts made by NASA to once again reach the moon, hopefully culminating in manned missions. The long-term plan is to settle human beings on earth's only natural satellite, making it the stepping stone for ventures into deep space. While the financial viability of such ambitions, especially for private parties, remains unclear, it is hoped that some form of lunar "commercial economy" will evolve as a result of these initiatives.

Narrative B

The very fact that no one has tried to travel to the moon since 1972 must tell us something it is a non-viable, pointless exercise. NASA has already spent more than $40B on its Artemis moon mission, and will likely rack up greater costs than even this staggering figure. NASA's plans have no real value to most people on earth. We need to do more to improve things on this planet, instead of trying slingshots elsewhere.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the next human being will walk on the moon by Nov. 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Mike Johnson still has a bit to go if he is to pass his bipartisan spending bill through the House. While hardline conservatives in the party will likely seek concessions on border security in turn for an unsatisfactory spending cap, compromise will have to remain the central theme of negotiations if the federal government is to avoid a shutdown. Funding deadlines are fast approaching — the recently elected speaker now must prove why he has the skills to thread the needle for the GOP.

Democratic narrative

The deal is a win for Democrats, avoiding the original drastic cuts that Johnson and the far-right of the Republican Party have long sought after. Spending will consequently be kept at a steady rate if the agreement can make its way through Congress in the shape of 12 appropriation bills — a task easier said than done in the face of the House Freedom Caucus' inevitable protests. Attention must now hastily turn towards making the America-friendly deal a reality for the benefit of everyone.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that US government spending-to-GDP will be at least 40.2% for 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

While she will govern Bangladesh again, the facade of a stable Hasina government can't mask the intensifying political strife, economic crisis, human rights abuses, and the stifling of dissent. Hasina's fifth total term will, at best, lead to de-facto one-party rule in Bangladesh rather than end the political deadlock or restore democracy.

Right narrative

In the past 15 years, Sheikh Hasina has turned around Bangladesh's economy, which has tripled the country's per capita income and lifted over 25M people out of poverty. Her fifth term will provide much-needed political stability for Bangladesh, which spun into turmoil following COVID and a global economic slowdown.

Narrative A

While thankfully only causing minor injuries, the potential risk involved in the incident that occurred on the Alaska Airlines flight should be discussed from a worst-case scenario perspective. Since the door plug blew out only minutes into the flight, everyone was still buckled; but if it had blown out at a cruising altitude of 30K feet, this could have been a fatal tragedy. An intensive investigation needs to take place.

Narrative B

While no one can doubt the horror of such an incident, particularly for those on board, the FAA and the airlines it oversees have taken every safety measure possible to investigate this matter and fix issues. When the 737 Max 9 is back in the air, passengers should feel safe in knowing that their aircraft has been thoroughly inspected. For now, the only worry anyone should have is over potential flight delays.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Russia is continuing to ramp up its attacks against Ukraine's civilian population. By continuing to indiscriminately target civilians, the Kremlin is clearly violating the principles of international law and should be punished.

Pro-Russia narrative

As Russia has said time and again, it does not target civilians in its attacks on Ukraine. All attacks are targeted at military sites and related infrastructure facilities, and Moscow takes this issue seriously.

Nerd narrative

There's a 38% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Though the claim that his near-complete isolation has taken a psychological toll on him seems to be plausible, it must be noted that Breivik has a long record of absurd complaints about his life in prison — including desiring better video games. He has been living in a luxurious prison cell despite his heinous crimes — and yet he acts as if the nation owes him everything.

Narrative B

Constitutional democracies must always uphold the rule of law and remain committed to protecting fundamental human rights, even if that benefits a horrific mass murder like Breivik or any other terrorist or convicted criminal. In fact, it's exactly the way that European nations treat them that indicates what kind of political community Europe wants to be.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that the US and the EU (or one of its member states) will cut diplomatic ties before 2051, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security. Blinken is working hard to advance this strategy.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Narrative D

Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.

Nerd narrative

There is a 6% chance that at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon will be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

A titan of soccer history, Beckenbauer completed the sport both on the pitch and on the touchline. The complete soccer player, much of his time on the pitch looked effortless while his statesman-like aura earned him the nickname "Der Kaiser" — The Emperor. Although Germany's corruption allegations concerning the 2006 World Cup cannot be forgotten, it will take more than accusations without verdict to blemish the legacy of one of the greatest of all time.

Narrative B

Despite potentially being Germany's greatest-ever player, the later years of Beckenbauer's life were rife with scandal and sadness. Following the passing of his son and allegations of corruption, the former soccer legend's health noticeably deteriorated. Despite being a serial winner for so many years, Beckenbauer's final years away from the spotlight were tragic and painted the picture of a complex and sometimes challenging human interest story.

Pro-establishment narrative

There is nothing more to be said following previous court rulings. Agencies such as the FBI have deemed certain data requests classified because their disclosure would jeopardize national security. The fact that there are documents even X wasn't allowed to see as a plaintiff shows how sensitive they were. The government doesn't take such action lightly, but when they do, companies need to understand the gravity of government data requests.

Establishment-critical narrative

X has been trying to combat government secrecy and data breaches since before it was called X. Unfortunately, for the 69% of requests it complied with, X was mandated by federal law. However, when the US government previously asked to wiretap Twitter users, the company declined, citing violation of the law. The US FBI, DOJ, and Secret Service make up a disproportionate amount of global government data requests — this is a violation of free speech, and authoritarian surveillance, that X will continue to fight.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the market capitalization of Twitter will be at least 22.3B on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.