Macron Appoints France's Youngest-Ever, First Gay Prime Minister
French Pres. Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday appointed Education Minister Gabriel Attal, 34, to be the nation's youngest-ever and first openly gay prime minister, following the resignation of Élisabeth Borne, who said Macron requested she step down, on Monday.
Attal, the son of a Jewish lawyer and filmmaker father and Orthodox Christian mother, was among a select group of young, well-to-do men who were picked to join Macron's youthful campaign. He attended the prestigious École Alsacienne private school, where he said he was bullied, after which he obtained his master's in public affairs from Sciences Po University.
Narrative A
France didn't necessarily need a new prime minister — as the economy has fared well against inflation, and foreign investment remains strong. But it did need a fresh face. Attal's appointment isn’t just historic, it also brings youthful energy and quick wit at a time when France needs to be pulled together.
Narrative B
Commentators on both sides of the French political aisle have agreed that Attal will be no different policy-wise than his predecessor. Representing the same agenda as Macron, he's merely the next puppet to do his bidding, as the French president looks to take advantage of Attal's popularity and put on a "centrist" stance that appeases both sides.
Nerd narrative
There's an 11% chance that Macron will dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taiwan Elections: Frontrunner Vows to Maintain Status Quo, Engage With China
Taiwan's leading presidential hopeful, Vice Pres. William Lai, told foreign reporters on Tuesday that his potential administration would continue to preserve the island's de facto independence by any means necessary, however, he would be open to engaging with Beijing "under the principles of equality and dignity."
The candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also delivered his strongest remarks to date, claiming that Beijing has employed propaganda, military intimidation, cognitive warfare, and fake news to interfere in Taiwan's elections and secure an alleged China-friendly puppet government — accusations Beijing has dismissed.
Pro-China narrative
Lai shouldn't expect to achieve different results if he plans to continue his party's policy to militarize Taiwan, seek secession, and resist reunification, particularly as that policy has escalated cross-Strait tensions in the first place. As long as US-backed pro-independence forces remain in control of the island, war will always be a looming threat.
Anti-China narrative
It's crystal clear that Beijing has aggravated cross-Strait tensions, including carrying out gray zone operations, in the hope that Taiwanese citizens will be intimidated into supporting the China-friendly KMT. Hopefully, the nation will not cave into this obnoxious strategy that has already failed several other times.
Nerd narrative
There's a 55% chance that China will annex at least half of Taiwan before 2050, if the DPP wins the 2024 Taiwanese election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
South Korea Outlaws Dog Meat Trade
On Tuesday, South Korea's parliament passed a bill to ban the breeding, slaughter, distribution, and sale of dogs to produce meat for human consumption — including food products made or processed with dog ingredients.
The ban, approved in the National Assembly by an overwhelming vote of 208-to-0 with two abstentions, will be effective beginning in 2027.
Narrative A
The bill effectively prohibits dog meat lovers from relishing traditional food, which is important for cultural reasons. The ban's legitimacy must be challenged as it infringes on millions of people's right to eat what they like. Moreover, it will be near impossible for the farmers and restaurant owners, many of them elderly, to find alternative sources of employment and income within three years and switch livelihoods so late in life.
Narrative B
While dog meat has long been considered a delicacy by older South Koreans, it's unfair to cause unimaginable pain and suffering to millions of dogs. Plus, this tradition has fallen out of favor with younger generations. The ban was necessary to uphold animal rights, as most dogs are killed in unimaginably cruel ways. This bill should be celebrated and a fair transition to alternative industries should continue.
Nerd narrative
There's a 67% chance that reducing wild animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: 2023 Was Likely The Hottest in 100K Years
2023 was likely the warmest in 100K years, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 2023's global temperatures broke the previous year's records significantly.
According to reporting from the Service, 2023 was 1.48ºC warmer than the pre-industrial average, surpassing the previous record in 2016 of +1.25ºC.
Narrative A
With all the doom and gloom around climate change, it's worth noting that the impacts of a warming planet are not entirely bad. As temperatures increase, agricultural conditions in some parts of the planet may actually improve, as the growing seasons will be longer. A loss of Arctic sea ice would also benefit commercial shipping, as the Northwest Passage will be accessible for longer periods of the year. The question is whether the costs will outweigh the benefits — but there will be benefits nonetheless that often get overlooked.
Narrative B
2023's warming is alarming. As the planet continues to warm, climate events like wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, and floods are likely to get worse. This wasn't just a wayward data point as 2023 smashed previous tallies. Granted there was an El Niño pattern that contributed to the high tally and will probably subside before 2024 ends — but the dreaded +1.5ºC threshold is likely to be surpassed in the next 12 months. There's a real chance that hazardous climate impacts could multiply in the year ahead.
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Poll: Haley Narrows Trump Gap to Single Digits in New Hampshire
The latest CNN/University of New Hampshire poll found that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has closed the gap with former Pres. Donald Trump in the GOP primary race in New Hampshire to seven percentage points, 39% to 32%, with two weeks to go until the vote.
She has gained 12 points since the previous survey in the second-in-the-nation primary state, which was released in November. Haley has grown popular especially among ideologically moderate and independent voters after Republican Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed her.
Anti-Trump narrative
It's no mystery that Haley will face an uphill battle to defeat Trump on the path to the GOP nomination for the White House, but her chances are growing by the day. If she is able to finish second in Iowa, to win in New Hampshire and, at least, to claim a close second in South Carolina, then she will become the only viable alternative to Trump — and there lies the key to her victory.
Pro-Trump narrative
Though a very specific hypothetical scenario in the first three Republican primaries would indeed trigger a race between Trump and Haley, as of today, the former president has double-digit leads over Haley in Iowa, New Hampshire, and even in her home state of South Carolina. Given that those who know her better don't want Haley to win the nomination, Republican primary voters won't make such an error. The GOP nomination still projects to be a cakewalk for the former president.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the Republican nominee for President in 2024 will win in New Hampshire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Blinken Meets Israeli Officials on War, Return of Palestinians to North Gaza
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli war cabinet, and other officials on Tuesday amid an ongoing diplomatic push by the US to solidify Israeli plans for the war in Gaza and thaw escalating regional tensions. Blinken said he had secured promises from four Arab nations and Turkey to support reconstruction in Gaza after the war, but said the countries also wanted to see an end to the fighting in Gaza and concrete steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.
During a one-on-one meeting with Netanyahu, Blinken reportedly told the Prime Minister that Israel must stop causing additional harm to civilians in Gaza. Blinken affirmed US support for Israel’s right to prevent attacks like Oct. 7 but "stressed the importance of avoiding further civilian harm and protecting civilian infrastructure in Gaza." Blinken was also expected to push for an "imminent" transition to the next phase of the war reportedly involving lower-intensity conflict.
Pro-establishment narrative
The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.
Narrative D
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive conflict. Israel's leadership should keep in mind that Hezbollah is more than ready for an all-out war and can inflict serious losses. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel by December 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ecuador Declares Curfew After Druglord 'Fito' Escapes Prison Cell
On Monday, Ecuador’s newly-elected president, Daniel Noboa, declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew following the prison cell escape of druglord Jose Adolfo Macias, aka Fito, who is described as "extremely dangerous." Violence also broke out across multiple prisons in Ecuador.
Fito is the leader of the powerful Los Choneros gang and is being held at Guayaquil, a maximum-security facility. His absence from his assigned area of the prison was discovered on Sunday. It's unclear how long he has been missing and if he has left the facility or is hiding in another area within it.
Narrative A
Daniel Noboa has taken the helm in his presidency with the intent to end violent crime in Ecuador. He recently announced that two new prisons will be built far away from the violence centers where brutality has taken over in recent years. His long-term plan is to restore the country to the peace it saw before being overrun with drugs and violence from Columbia and Peru.
Narrative B
The politicians and police of Ecuador have proven that they cannot be trusted. Families and business owners are left to fend for themselves against the violent gangs that have infiltrated their neighborhoods. They are forced to pay the criminals their meager earnings and if they refuse, they must pay with their lives or the lives of loved ones. Noboa faces tremendous odds at bringing about law and order — especially when organized crime is so deeply tied to systemic corruption.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Norway Parliament Approves World's First Commercial Deep Sea Mining
The Norwegian parliament on Tuesday approved deep-sea mining across 108K square miles of its national waters, paving the way to becoming the first country in the world to allow companies to dig for minerals like cobalt, scandium, and lithium on the bottom of the ocean. An international agreement on deep-sea mining in international waters is also expected later this year.
Before companies can begin drilling, they will have to complete studies on the impact on marine life and receive a parliament-approved license. While this means mineral extraction may not begin until the 2030s, once it does, it's believed it will create an industry worth between hundreds of millions to trillions of dollars. Seventeen protected marine areas will also be excluded from drilling.
Narrative A
The proposed deep-sea mining industry will wipe out vast amounts of nonmicrobial species if its thunderous machines are allowed to operate on the ocean floor. First, the noise pollution will send the larger predator fish fleeing away; then, once they begin kicking sediment up on the seabed, those particles will choke all the smaller prey fish to death. Furthermore, the polymetallic nodules that rest on the ocean floor are where animals like sponges and worms live, which means their lives will also be cut short due to the cobalt industry boom.
Narrative B
While governments should take necessary precautions and conduct research before greenlighting deep-sea mining, they shouldn't take too long in the face of the far greater enemy of climate change. Rising sea levels due to fossil fuel burning risks making entire countries uninhabitable, so the future must be electric. Furthermore, mineral mining on land produces more harm than in the sea, adding human rights violations on top of environmental challenges. Deep-sea mining is the least harmful solution to global warming.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 81.2% of US car sales will be all-electric by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
German Protests: 10K Farmers, 5K Tractors Gather in Berlin
On Monday, an estimated 10K farmers and 5K tractors and trucks gathered in Berlin as weeks-long protests against Germany's plans to abolish farming car and diesel tax breaks continued.
Last month, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government proposed eliminating tax breaks for the purchase of agricultural equipment and scrapping diesel fuel subsidies after Germany’s Constitutional Court ruled in November that COVID funds couldn't be redistributed to other areas. Therefore, the government had to cut tens of billions of dollars in spending.
Left narrative
A dangerous, far-right backlash is sweeping Germany, and these farmers’ protests are part of a broader anti-government movement. While some of the people protesting may be earnest farmers upset about specific agricultural policies, there are many right-wing actors who are exploiting anger and promoting dangerous ideologies.
Right narrative
Germany’s left-wing globalist government continues to show that it doesn’t value its farmers — or even its workers in general. Elitist leaders have looked down on the working class, labeling them as right-wing extremists, for far too long. As Olaf Scholz’s coalition grows weaker by the day, Germans are desperate for an alternative party that puts their interests first.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Germany will elect a new chancellor by Jan. 8, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Seeks to Dismiss Election Interference Cases
Former US Pres. Donald Trump filed a trio of motions Monday requesting a Georgia judge to dismiss felony racketeering charges against him related to his criminal election interference case, arguing that the case violated presidential immunity, double jeopardy, and due process protections.
Trump attorney Steve Sadow made his arguments to the Fulton County Superior Court, arguing that the former president's efforts to challenge the results of Georgia’s election in 2020 were at the “heart” of his presidential duties.
Pro-Trump narrative
Democrats are desperate to take down Trump and stop him from cruising to victory in 2024. The plan has been obvious from the start, but we now know that a lead prosecutor and romantic partner of partisan Democrat Fani Willis was meeting with the Biden White House before Georgia’s indictments even came out. Not only are corrupt prosecutors targeting Trump, but they are also enriching their corrupt friends in the process.
Anti-Trump narrative
Trump is as wrong as he is desperate, claiming that he could essentially commit any crime with impunity since he served as president. While there is some presidential immunity for executive decisions that presidents make, it is absurd to claim that Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results were part of a president’s job description. Trump was acting as a candidate during his efforts to undermine Georgia and the US' democracy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 60% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.