Pro-Israel narrative

If we lived in a perfect or, at least, a fair world, the panel hearing this preposterous case would base their decision solely on legal merits, thus ruling in favor of Israel. However, given the nature of the United Nations, the odds are 50, as one must expect political considerations to come into play as countries such as Lebanon, China, and Russia will lobby their jurists on how to rule in this case.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Palestinians in Gaza, as well as the West Bank and around the world, are immensely grateful to South Africa for bringing this case to the ICJ. The symbolism of this is not lost on Palestinians, who understand that South Africa has also suffered from apartheid, racial discrimination, and genocide. Hopefully, this opportunity for justice and accountability will not be missed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that the International Court of Justice will order provisional measures against Israel before March 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The strikes targeting the Iranian-backed Houthis have come after diplomatic efforts by the US and its allies failed to deter the rebels from further operations against international commercial shipping and US and UK warships. The decisive action against the militants proves that the West stands united in defense of international law and free trade. Since military power seems to be the only language the Houthis and Iran understand, the rules-based international order must not shy away from taking further action if necessary.

Establishment-critical narrative

With the US-British aggression against Yemen, the West's moral bankruptcy in defense of its so-called "rules-based order" is now on full display. While Washington supports Israel's genocidal Gaza campaign, it's now bombing Yemen for the Houthis daring to stand up for Palestinians by targeting Israeli-linked ships. As so often, the latest US aggression is a recipe for more, not less, violence and instability. The West has deliberately expanded the Israel-Hamas war to distract from Israeli war crimes and will suffer the consequences of its heavy-handed actions.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This latest move from the UK demonstrates that it continues to stand strong with Ukraine and will remain unwaveringly at its side. This agreement cements the strong bond between the nations and extends it for many years. It also demonstrates to Russia that Western support for Ukraine is not going away.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite the façade of calm, after nearly two years of war, Ukraine is in serious danger. Not only are billions of dollars of military aid being held up in the EU and the US, Ukraine's mobilization law has reached a stumbling block and is becoming too toxic to handle. Furthermore, Ukraine says it needs 3M additional Ukrainians working in order to generate enough tax to pay the new troops.

Nerd narrative

There's a 29% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Tusk was expected to face an uphill battle to free Polish institutions from the political control of the undemocratic PiS. However, the situation has proven harder than he and his plural coalition might have envisioned. During its eight-year rule, PiS was able to overcome power-balancing mechanisms to gain control over public media services as well as the judiciary.

Establishment-critical narrative

These developments expose the hypocrisy of European liberal circles. If any other political leader adopted Tusk’s tactics, there would be outrage, disquiet, and widespread claims of illiberalism. Yet, the simple fact that Tusk is a Brussels-backed former president of the European Council apparently gives him a free pass to do whatever he pleases.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Poland's Economist's Democracy Index will be at least 7.14 in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The UK's worrying new report is only a single example within a wider global trend. The report lacks any silver lining and even sadly points toward drastically higher rates of maternal mortality within the UK's most deprived areas. While data is not uniform, maternal healthcare is in dire need of reform and repair worldwide, as governments continue to ignore what has remained a growing issue in recent years.

Narrative B

The UK government is undertaking a series of reforms in order to implement recommendations on improving maternity services. The state continues to turn numerous policies advised by independent investigations into a reality. As long as workforce and capital investment is sustainably secured, maternity services will only see an upward trend in the future.

Narrative A

Discovering unique phenomena in the universe shouldn't surprise us, as the so-called cosmological principle began to weaken decades ago with the observation of differing mass measurements and galaxy counts. While this still aligns with the Big Bang theory of an expanding universe, the difference now is that we know older, more distant galaxies are bluer, lower in mass, and less evolved in their shape. This discovery shows a whole new texture of the growing universe.

Narrative B

The Big Bang theory depends on the accuracy of the cosmological principle. While there may be some variation among galaxy clusters, particularly closer ones, observational studies — which is what these theories are based upon — show the overall patterns of distant matter are spread out uniformly throughout the universe. An important idea to consider is that differences in that irregular clumps of matter weren't made by the aftermath of the Big Bang, but actually by repeated nucleosynthesis from supernovas.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that the Universe will end, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The Republicans’ impeachment probe and the high publicity of this trial are a distraction from former Pres. Donald Trump's multiple criminal and civil charges, including his failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election. Hunter Biden has paid off all his tax debts —including penalties and interest — so it's clear these charges are meant to ensure his plight remains in the news while his father campaigns to defeat Trump again. Biden is innocent until proven guilty; the GOP must stop using him as a surrogate to attack his father.

Republican narrative

The Biden administration is impeding criminal probes into the president's son by intentionally slow-walking investigative steps. As there's ample evidence the Bidens were partners in a corrupt family enterprise, and the president has been involved in his son's finances, the Justice Department must pursue the case aggressively. Hunter Biden must face the consequences of his actions, while there must be more investigation into what else the president is hiding.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 25% chance that Pres. Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The Democrats have fumbled the ball on immigration and must make a change, or else they'll risk handing immigration powers over to the extreme right such as Trump-like members of the GOP. The current immigration issue relates to asylum seekers, a system that is completely broken in the country and cannot afford to take in any more applicants. There are likely tens of millions of migrants already in the US that we should focus on processing first. But in the meantime, the Democrats should support capping more arrivals until those already here have been legalized.

Right narrative

The liberal "accept anyone and everyone" mantra is coming home to roost all across the US. Immigrants from all over the world have for over a decade been overtaking populations ranging from coastal cities like Boston to midwestern hubs like Sioux City, Iowa, where districts have now had to translate their services into more than 150 languages. Schools have turned into violent institutions and public libraries and malls into inhospitable refugee camps. Bold actions, like the ones taken by Governor Abbott, are needed more than ever.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that the US will deploy troops in Mexico without the Mexican government's cooperation before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Thankfully, no one was harmed during the dramatic incident in which a door panel flew off the side of a Boeing plane, however, there is a clear danger that a similar malfunction could become the norm. Corporate programs that focus on issues like diversity, equity, and inclusion have often been prioritized over safety initiatives. These firms need to re-focus on quality and safety.

Left narrative

There was obviously a problem at some point in Boeing's production and manufacturing of the 737 Max 9 involved in last week’s incident, but the problem is not in diversity, equity, and inclusion programs that are vital to a vibrant workforce. The issue is instead on the private sector pursuing ruthless profits and cutting corners in the production process — more regulation and oversight are needed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that there be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

AI companies must cooperate with regulators to ensure this novel technology is built and used appropriately. These warnings are not just coming from concerned citizens and lawmakers but also the industry's leading executives, from the leaders of OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google to Elon Musk. These companies already have the brains and the capital to develop world-changing AI — they just need help implementing guardrails at the government level.

Establishment-critical narrative

We should be careful before including the CEOs of these companies, whose obvious goal is to monopolize the power and profit of AI, in discussions on how to regulate them. The so-called nonprofit OpenAI is suspiciously profitable, on top of the fact that it's basically become a subsidiary of Microsoft and put industry titans and former government officials on its board. If European governments — located far from the tech capital of Silicon Valley — are only requiring vague "regulate yourself policies," what can we expect from the US government, whose ties to Big Tech are much closer?

Narrative C

AI is the future, and trying to set back its development won't solve any problems. AI offers a revolutionary means to address some of the world's biggest challenges, including inequity and even climate change, and it must be kept on its current track. Rather than trying to reign it in, the tricky areas of the technology simply need to be identified, and work can be done to improve them while AI continues to develop at its current pace.

Nerd narrative

There's an 85% chance that the research group responsible for developing the first artificial general intelligence will be part of a for-profit corporation, according to the Metaculus prediction community.