Anti-China narrative

Voters have ignored threats from Beijing, demonstrating their commitment to the island's democracy as well as to its de facto sovereignty. Hopefully, the PRC will finally realize that intimidating the Taiwanese people doesn't work and understand that only peace can promote stability across the Strait. If not, then it's better for Taiwan to have bolstered defenses and deeper ties with other democratic nations.

Pro-China narrative

Taiwan belongs to China, and no election will ever obstruct the inevitable national reunification. That's even more true now as results clearly revealed that voters gave no mandate for the DPP to represent the mainstream public opinion on the island. Beijing wants peace, but it will firmly oppose separatist activities and foreign interference.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that Taiwan/Republic of China will declare independence by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Because of Pyongyang's increased military cooperation with Moscow, the recent launch sends a powerful message far beyond the Korean Peninsula and the region. This Russian-North Korean partnership can be seen on the ground in Ukraine, where Russia has employed North Korean weapons while also giving advanced rocket technology to the North. This creates a hazardous precedent — potentially jeopardizing world peace and security.

Narrative B

North Korea continues to test and develop its defenses against Washington's and Seoul's military provocations. South Korea and the US risk nuclear war by holding multiple military exercises along the North Korean border and in the border region. By bringing in new military assets, such as aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and strategic heavy bombers, this is threatening not only North Korea but also regional peace and stability. Pyongyang has every right to counter these provocations by expanding its defensive military capabilities.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Abbott is just ratcheting up fear in the run-up to the 2024 US election because current migrant crossings hardly compare to the huge numbers recorded in the early 2000s. The unprecedented blocking of federal agents in the name of tightening border control hides the fact that the current uptick in illegal crossings began before Biden's election. Abbott is playing politics and feeding the border security industry.

Republican narrative

Biden is completely ignoring the immigration crisis. Given the lackluster efforts to deport illegal aliens, what is the true function of the Border Patrol? The "ignoring and enabling" cycle is plaguing the US southern border. This is a massive crisis for the US that the Biden admin. is failing tremendously.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that 41.7% of US Hispanic or Latino voters will vote Republican in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Denmark is entering a new era. With high approval ratings, this down-to-earth king — who embraces environmental issues, sends his children to state schools, and shops, and dines in public like a commoner — will make one of Europe's oldest monarchies more accessible, popular, and relevant to its people.

Narrative B

Denmark is a democracy. The monarchy doesn't fit, and this is the perfect time to consider getting rid of it. At the very least, the royals should be stripped of their constitutional powers, including the necessity for the king's signature on parliamentary acts.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Denmark will rank at least 14th in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

It's a matter of fact that there's no way back to the pre-AI era and some human jobs will be destroyed, especially as companies want to maximize efficiency. However, this must not come at the expense of the livelihood of hundreds of millions of workers. As recommended by institutions like the IMF, governments worldwide must implement regulations to ensure that integrating this technology won't cause unemployment surges.

Establishment-critical narrative

Essentially, the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market is no different than that of computers, light bulbs, and automobiles. Whenever a more efficient technology arises to benefit mankind, some jobs will be rendered obsolete and workers will be displaced — and that's exactly the evolutionary process of capitalism. Some justified security concerns aside, AI and its impact on the global workforce must celebrated.

Nerd narrative

There is a 14% chance that the percentage of the U.S. workforce employed in white-collar jobs will decrease by at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026, potentially due to the influence of AI or other factors, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

With a deadline looming, this agreement represents a reasonable compromise from both sides and should be met with little controversy — even if a stubborn section of conservative GOP members will stomp their feet and complain about any deal that doesn't align 100% with their hardline agenda. Johnson must withstand the pressure for the sake of the bipartisan majority.

Republican narrative

Although the House GOP isn’t united on everything, one matter it can coalesce around is the Biden administration’s failed border security policies. So Johnson has successfully negotiated spending cuts into this bill, but he still must get more concessions from the Democrats in order to satisfy the right flank of the party.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Republicans will win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Although the US and its Western partners are doing everything they can to prevent Russian aggression in Ukraine, they must prepare for the scenario that Russia will hit somewhere they're not expecting the Suwałki Gap, near the borders of Poland and Lithuania. This is the next logical step of Putin's imperial ambitions.

Pro-Russia narrative

It was NATO, not Russia, that announced a buildup of military forces in Lithuania. This escalation threatens Russia's Kaliningrad region, therefore Russia must respond accordingly to ensure its people are protected. As always, the US and the West are carrying out provocations and then blaming Russia for the consequences.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1.5% chance that Russia will annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Western coalition has repeatedly warned the Houthi terrorists to not attack civilian cargo ships. Not only are these vessels non-military ships, but many aren't even linked to Israel, despite the Houthis’ claims. By forcing countries to reduce cargo shipments through the Red Sea, the Houthis are sabotaging the global economy, and they must be stopped.

Establishment-critical narrative

US and UK strikes aren’t going to deter the Houthis, who are using their stated solidarity with the Palestinians to legitimize themselves on the world stage. Instead, the West should focus on getting Israel to call off its siege of Gaza because attempting to bomb the Houthis into acquiescence isn't likely to work.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Yemen will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by January 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 35.3K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Kerry deserves kudos for all he accomplished in his role as climate envoy, with the COP28 agreement to get countries to begin "transitioning away" from fossil fuels both the most recent and most historic achievement of his stint. His efforts to get the US and China to put aside other grievances and cooperate on climate change initiatives have put the world on the right path in the face of a warming world. Kerry will be missed.

Republican narrative

The only thing better than Kerry leaving this post will be if the post is completely obliterated and never filled again. Kerry traveled the world promoting anti-energy policies that harmed the US economy. The envoy position was also created without a mechanism for oversight, so Kerry wasn't required to be transparent about his work and its impact. His departure is welcome news for American consumers and businesses.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before 2029, if a Republican wins the 2024 US presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.