Democratic narrative

Despite all the naysayers, Pres. Biden continues to show that he is a political force. The fact that more than 520K voters made over 900K donations to his fundraising haul, and that his campaign raised nearly $100M in just three months, shows the Democratic presidential candidate’s support among a plethora of Americans. Meanwhile, Trump has significantly less money and is wasting resources on legal battles and primary fights. All of this bodes well for Biden's 2024 chances.

Republican narrative

All of the money in the world can’t shield Pres. Biden from the effects of his immense unpopularity. Hollywood elites may be rallying around the incumbent president and his failed policies, but a vast majority of Americans are fed up with record inflation and the surging migrant crisis. While the Biden campaign may claim it has created a fundraising record, it fails to acknowledge how much less that money is worth, thanks to inflation. Voters, not donors, will determine the 2024 election.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 49% chance that Joe Biden will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran is stirring up more trouble in an already explosive region. A more unstable Iraq is the last thing the Middle East needs at this point, making the strikes on Erbil an utterly reckless act. Tehran must respect the sovereignty of Iraq and allow peace to return to the region.

Pro-Iran narrative

Contrary to claims from the West, Iran isn't the one inflaming tensions in the region. Monday's strikes — which abided by international laws — are a direct response to terrorist actions committed against Iran, which not only has a right but a duty to defend its civilians.

Nerd narrative

There is a 16% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.

Anti-China narrative

Simply put, Beijing offered a better deal than Taipei and bought off the financially strained South Pacific nation to shift diplomatic sides once again. The move was a calculated attempt to undermine Taiwan's independence and democracy and diplomatically isolate the island. At the end of the day, Taiwan will appear stronger because Beijing's cynical attempts to lure Taiwan's diplomatic allies to its side will be perceived as bullying.

Pro-China narrative

Only a few nations have diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Most countries, including the US, support the One-China Policy rather than recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. With Nauru removed from the list, Taiwan's diplomatic friends are decreasing. Given the PRC's position in the world, any sovereign state should seek improved relations with Beijing rather than caving to US-led hegemony.

Nerd narrative

There is a 4% chance China will recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Ramaswamy made a valiant effort, as he started his campaign with little name recognition and outlasted several better-known candidates. He put up a fight in visits to every Iowa county, and brought some important issues to the forefront of the race while building his campaign on truth-telling. By leaving the race and endorsing Trump, he's continuing to do what's best for the Republican Party's future unity and electoral chances.

Democratic narrative

Ramaswamy never really ran against Trump as much as he ran alongside him, seemingly auditioning for a cabinet position along the way. This campaign accomplished two things it made Ramaswamy famous, and it proved that the Republican electorate has a hunger for Trump to shift his terrifying policies even further to the right.

Nerd narrative

There's a 94% chance that Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

While the first half of 2023 suggested a tight race in Iowa, an exceptionally strong campaign by Trump and his team has resulted in a historic and record-breaking result for the state. As the DeSantis and Haley campaigns continue to flounder, the former president has stayed away from the GOP's string of pointless debates while maintaining a strong and simple message. Trump has dodged every possible Democrat bullet and continues to gather momentum as he eyes a return to the White House.

Anti-Trump narrative

Despite being a state known for its religious affiliations, it is the cult of Trumpism that dangerously threatens US democracy following Iowa's caucus results. As history has shown, however, this outcome — while undoubtedly a victory for Trump — doesn't mean he'll secure the presidential nomination. Faced with a trove of criminal charges and stiff competition from Haley in New Hampshire's primary, the US hasn't yet fallen for Trump's brand of authoritarianism.

Nerd narrative

There is a 94% chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

The Davos consensus on Ukraine should be the world's consensus — Kyiv is absolutely capable of deterring and defeating Moscow so long as its Western allies continue their financial support. This can't just be verbal or metaphorical support either, but rather concrete and predictable finance and weapons distribution to the frontlines until Putin finally concedes his inevitable defeat.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian officials didn't have to attend the Davos summit to understand the absurdity of its intentions. Dozens of national security advisors flew to Switzerland to hear Zelenskyy call for a complete withdrawal of Russian troops and subsequent trials for war crimes — propositions even the most pro-Ukraine countries know are not going to happen. What will happen is Ukraine will continue to lose on the battlefield as its allies in the West grow more weary of supporting this war.

Nerd narrative

There is a 26% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered the north of the strip unlivable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and clearly wants to make the Gaza Strip unlivable. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 64% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is great news for the health of the world, and it's obvious that countries that have implemented some of the suggestions from the WHO to counter Big Tobacco are getting results. It's time to start regulating e-cigarettes the same as regular tobacco products, and maybe even go as far as to put warning labels on individual products. Health authorities worldwide are winning this battle, but they must not relent.

Narrative B

Although the tobacco industry is pushing against WHO recommendations for reducing global tobacco use, the WHO must also consider other factors that may slow progress. People in countries where there's great trauma and/or countries involved in violent conflict might find their populations turning to tobacco for relief. The WHO will need to do more to offer alternatives and financial support to some nations and also consider unique cultural circumstances.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a country will implement a total civilian ban on the consumption and smoking of tobacco by June 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

There are many reasons that people across developed countries are having fewer children, and this inevitable decline in birth rates brings some positive effects, as this study shows. In addition to the health and economic benefits of smaller families, having fewer children can help the world in its fight against climate change. The fact is that people are starting families much later than they did in the past, and the focus should be on the health and happiness of families, not on their size.

Narrative B

People across the Western world, particularly in the US, have been misled into believing that having fewer children is a positive development. However, considerable research shows that large and robust families are most conducive to mental and physical health. Low birthrates present an existential crisis, and society must prioritize creating the next generation of happy and healthy children.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that China’s total fertility rate will be at least 1.1 in 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Elon Musk is holding his own company hostage in order to get his way. Investors have always been wary of Musk’s volatile public persona and brash public statements, and his public demand for 25% control of Tesla does nothing to assuage concerns about the Tesla founder. While Tesla has been successful, it has experienced its worst performance since going public, and Musk is overplaying his hand and harming himself and his company.

Narrative B

Elon Musk is making a very reasonable request in seeking 25% control of the electric vehicle company he founded. Musk is the brains powering Tesla, and he has many plans that can help the company venture into emerging spheres, such as AI. Musk has the leverage, and he should not give Tesla exclusive access to his outside work without fair compensation.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Tesla’s market capitalization will be at least $1.58T on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.