Narrative A

France is taking immediate measures to stem the decline in the country's birth rate, even though, at 1.68 children per woman, it still has the highest fertility rate in Europe. Pres. Macron must be applauded for aiming to "re-arm French fertility," as the country can’t afford to go through a demographic collapse right now.

Narrative B

France, like the rest of Europe, has witnessed a healthy demographic transition since the French Revolution. While the reason for the change has been largely religious, the country enjoys considerable economic benefits of having fewer people. Lower fertility has meant rising living standards, which has kept France a strong nation. Macron's motivation for this policy change is not only economic — it's a political reaction to immigration.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's recent missile attacks on Pakistan and Iraq — allegedly to fight terrorists — have heightened tensions in an already volatile region where its proxy military forces have caused much of the violence. Tehran is acting recklessly at a time when all parties should use restraint and respect the territorial integrity of its neighbors. De-escalation and coordinated action are essential to safeguard at least some stability.

Pro-Iran narrative

It is hardly Iran causing regional tensions to escalate as Tehran has only protected itself from terrorists operating within the territories of Pakistan and Iraq. While Iran respects their sovereignty and territorial integrity, it must maintain its own security when challenged by terrorists. Undoubtedly, Pakistan has not gone far enough to prevent terrorists from the Jaish al-Adl from striking Iran.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Most often, criminals are one step ahead of law enforcement authorities. A tool like encryption hands a potential virtual weapon to bad actors. It's vital to balance the need for unfettered privacy with regulating technology that has a strong downside. An open society with private discussions does not also have to include tech that can harm children.

Narrative B

Contrary to the erroneous assumption that encryption enables child sex abuse online, encryption technology overall protects children by limiting their exposure to such content, alongside threats and blackmail. The tool could also prevent criminals from accessing children's pictures or locations online. Not using encryption leaves everyone, including children, vulnerable.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Meta Platforms will sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Monkey cloning has a long and controversial history, but given that a cloned rhesus has lived happily and healthily for over two years now, the potential medical benefits should be our focus. Though it won't happen tomorrow, scientists can now work on developing medicine for conditions like visual impairment, deafness, heart disease, and metabolic conditions, as well as extremely rare diseases that cause immense suffering.

Narrative B

Many countries have excluded primates from scientific experiments due to their similarity to humans concerning abilities and feelings. If cloning monkeys are allowed to continue, not only will such torture of these creatures increase, but so will the market for buying and selling them into captivity. Whenever a creature is cloned and experimented on, it shows the humans using it have little care for their moral status — if this carelessness is normalized on monkeys, treating humans this way could be next.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the first cloned human will be born by August 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Belarus's military doctrine was years out of date, highlighted most apparently by the recent conflict in the Middle East. Belarus is a peaceful country and does not threaten anyone. Nonetheless, it will not accept any interference in its political affairs, nor any forms of aggression towards its territory — including from the Western "rules-based order." The recent changes simply reflect that modern reality.

Pro-establishment narrative

Belarus, Russia's closest ally, has just sent alarm bells ringing throughout the halls of Western governments. This is a reckless move and is a clear provocation to NATO, particularly to neighbors Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania in the eastern flank. The West must respond accordingly to these developments.

Nerd narrative

There's a 45% chance that Russia will significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

Despite uncertain international economic conditions, the Chinese economy has once again defied expectations and surpassed the government's GDP target in 2023. PRC government policies continue to lead China out of the depths of the COVID pandemic and, despite a lagging real estate sector, 2024 looks set to be another solid year for economic advancement.

Anti-China narrative

With 2023 seeing some of China's weakest economic growth in over three decades alongside a second consecutive year of population decline, there is much to worry about in Beijing. Following China's working population specifically seeing a decline of over 10M last year, China's GDP will almost certainly see a further decline in 2024 as the world's second-largest economy continues to grapple with a plethora of domestic dangers

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This ruling is a big win for justice. Those on the right who claim to be in favor of law and order have completely dropped their stance regarding this case. Penny should've called law enforcement to help Neely but instead turned himself into a criminal with his overuse of force. He should be condemned from all ends of the political spectrum for his actions, regardless of his race.

Right narrative

This is ill-conceived prosecution. Neely spent 15 years terrorizing New Yorkers — including punching elderly people in the head — and the city allowed him to repeatedly skip jail and stop taking his schizophrenia medication. Far-left policies on crime and mental health put New Yorkers at risk. While Neely's death was tragic, Penny acted to protect his fellow passengers and should be honored not prosecuted.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump does a lot of grousing about the alleged fraudulent nature of this case, but he continues to prove Carroll's point with his attacks on her. Even as he sat in the courtroom, Trump's social media was slandering her and accusing her of lying. Continuing to go after someone who's suing you for defamation isn't the best strategy to convince a jury you're right.

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump has to do all he can to call out the witch hunt that's trying to bring him down before he can win reelection to the White House. This case is rigged against him, with a Democrat-nominated judge and a plaintiff who's being financially backed by Democratic activists and a Democratic megadonor who has vowed to do everything he can to take down Trump.

Nerd narrative

There's a 94% chance that Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee for the US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Using AI in oncology will revolutionize cancer detection and treatment. Tests like these will allow patients to avoid uncomfortable and invasive procedures while also obtaining incredibly accurate results. Furthermore, scientists are developing AI tools to better prescribe chemotherapy and even drug treatments. This technology will be a powerful assistant to doctors in the fight against cancer.

Narrative B

The assimilation of AI into healthcare runs the risk of giving those with a financial stake too much power. Even as AI makes health care more efficient, the government must make sure inexpensive options aren't disregarded in favor of more profitable choices.

Narrative A

This ruling protects competition and is a massive victory for consumers that will likely save the existence of cheap air travel. Spirit is known for its low prices that allow many more people to travel, and a merger with JetBlue would have disrupted that business model. The government has an obligation to prevent businesses from consolidating and vesting complete power in a handful of industry giants. Young's ruling not only protects cost-conscious consumers but also strengthens antitrust protections against oligopolies.

Narrative B

While Judge Young and the DOJ may believe that they're sticking up for consumers, the fact is they're only entrenching the power of the top four airlines and facilitating the downfall of Spirit and cheap airlines. Spirit is in serious financial trouble, and it needed JetBlue to revive its struggling business. Instead of allowing JetBlue to save Spirit, the government blocked a necessary merger, causing the airline's share price to plummet dramatically. Instead of saving cheap air travel, the DOJ has pushed it to the brink of viability.

Nerd narrative

There is a 45% chance that JetBlue will announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.