Report: Beijing Lab Mapped COVID Weeks Before Global Outbreak
According to federal documents released Wednesday, a Chinese researcher had submitted the genetic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a publicly accessible US database two weeks before the PRC shared the information publically. The documents were obtained by Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.
US Department of Health and Human Services documents reportedly show that Dr. Lili Ren — a virologist at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences' Institute of Pathogen Biology in Beijing — uploaded the information to GenBank, run by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), on Dec. 28, 2019.
Anti-China narrative
The two-week delay between Lili Ren's submission of a paper with a near-complete genetic sequence of COVID and China's official revelations about the disease may have proven costly to the world. This new information puts the spotlight on PRC opacity, even in matters of such crucial importance to the world such as an early pandemic warning. All this needs a comprehensive probe that can be placed before the world to determine what went wrong.
Pro-China narrative
The report of a Chinese researcher's apparent submission of COVID's near-complete genetic sequence is another example of the West looking to put China in a spot over the pandemic. While tracing the origins of the disease is a global need, politicizing it all hinders the process, dividing the world and undermining vital healthcare. Distortions and innuendos are not the scientific way to investigate the origin of an unprecedented global crisis. Washington's partisan animosity should not translate to scapegoating Beijing.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations will support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ecuador Attorney General: Prosecutor's Murder Won't Stop Gang Crackdown
César Suárez, the public prosecutor in charge of the criminal investigation into the storming of an Ecuadorian television station by gang members last week, was killed Wednesday in an ambush as he was driving to court in the city of Guayaquil.
At the time of his assassination, Suárez had detained at least 13 people in connection with the TV station attack. Suárez, the country's top anti-corruption prosecutor, was traveling without a security detail, and his death shows gangs are now targeting state institutions.
Narrative A
Just when it seemed Noboa had made Ecuador safer, the gangs have stepped up their efforts to dismantle the state by exacting violence on top officials. But the government can't give up. It's time to make sure every official has a security detail and that double the effort is made to combat these terrorists. The future of Ecuador is at stake, but it's salvageable.
Narrative B
Corruption is deeply rooted in Ecuadorian society and the campaign against it has been lost. Numerous neighborhoods have been overtaken by violent gangs operating on behalf of foreign drug cartels, and the authorities are powerless to stop them. Suarez's murder seems to be the final nail in the coffin for a country that's now seeing citizens flee in droves to the United States.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that there will be a successful coup d'etat in Ecuador before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
AI Discussions Take Place at World Economic Forum
Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a "driving force for the economy and society" has been named as one of four "key themes" at the 2024 World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos — held between Jan. 15-19.
The summit states that AI both holds the "potential to help us solve global challenges," while claiming that "innovation and guardrails are essential." The WEF cites a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which claims that nearly 40% of employment — and 60% within advanced economies — are "exposed to AI."
Pro-establishment narrative
The world should leave the WEF feeling slightly better about the chances of a global approach to managing AI. While international legislation remains far out of reach, discussions like those seen in Davos are a positive beginning. AI is a transformative technology, and the sooner its risks are sustainably minimized, the quicker the world's exponential potential can be unlocked.
Establishment-critical narrative
While CEOs and industry leaders answer comfortable questions posed by high-ranking media members concerning future technology, the WEF has so far failed to really address the doomsday-instigating dangers of AI. Reading between the lines of Big Tech's many discussions at the forum, fears concerning an AI apocalypse remain inadequately answered as Davos' elites continue to play games with the posterity of humanity.
Nerd narrative
There's a 96% chance of an AI arms race before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jordan Peterson: Fight Against 'Re-Education' Has 'Barely Started'
Canadian clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson has claimed that "the war has barely started" after losing a legal bid to have courts overturn a policy he described as a social media "re-education camp" ordered by the College of Psychologists of Ontario.
Three judges from the Ontario Court of Appeal on Tuesday dismissed Peterson's motion seeking for the case to be re-examined after an earlier hearing in a lower divisional court also went against him. The appeals court gave no reason.
Left narrative
This ruling confirms that even when Peterson thinks he's off-duty, his remarks can still harm the public trust and confidence in his profession, particularly if those comments are degrading, demeaning, and unprofessional, as some of the complaints suggest. This was the right decision.
Right narrative
This is an outrageous affront to free speech. The College of Psychologists was wrong to try to exercise control over Peterson's opinions, and the courts were just as disgraceful in upholding this decision — effectively creating a re-education camp for political speech. This decision must be immediately reversed.
Nerd narrative
There's an 81% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become prime minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Western Nations Mull Funding Ukraine With Frozen Russian Assets
As Ukraine's allies face shrinking support for aid packages to Kyiv — including a US Congressional stalemate — more Western officials are signing on to the idea of using frozen Russian assets as a funding mechanism. While lawmakers in Europe and Washington seek to find legal ways to utilize $300B of Russian central bank funds, which are mostly sitting in Europe, the US Biden administration also wants to find more immediate funding methods.
As the US — which has frozen a total of roughly $600B in Russian funds — and the Group of Seven (G7) allies are seeking legal means to do so, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in Washington is pushing legislation called the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act, which includes the use of frozen assets. This comes as the World Bank estimates Ukraine's 10-year recovery will cost $411B.
Anti-Russia narrative
While Putin was somewhat successful in hiding his true desires earlier on in this conflict, he is now openly using words like "conquest" when referring to his military ambitions. If the West wasn't sure about the threat of Russian expansion before, they certainly should be now. It is now critical to unlock all sources of funding for Ukraine to push back on the Kremlin.
Pro-Russia narrative
If Russia was seen as a threat to countries other than Ukraine, why would European stalwarts like Germany vote 178 in parliament against sending long-range missiles to Kyiv? Even if Ukraine was given all these fancy weapons and ammunition, it wouldn't change the outcome of this conflict. Ukraine is being strung along with small handouts until the world finally stops caring.
Nerd narrative
There is a 26% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
DOJ Report on Uvalde Shooting Cites 'Cascading Failures'
A US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) report released Thursday states that police responding to the deadly school shooting in May 2022 in Uvalde, Texas, "demonstrated no urgency" in addressing the shooting and failed to treat the incident as an active shooter situation.
The 600-page DOJ report is the most comprehensive federal account of the police response to the shooting at Robb Elementary School, where 19 students and two teachers were killed.
Narrative A
The transparency in this report is a step in the right direction. Hopefully, it will give families the answers they need to move forward and for the right people to be held accountable for this tragedy. Law enforcement failed that day but there's a chance to learn from its mistakes to prevent a repeat incident.
Narrative B
While this is the most comprehensive effort to provide answers to what happened at Robb Elementary, more is still needed. The District Attorney has not finished her assessment and has not decided whether any law enforcement can be criminally charged. No one has apologized or taken accountability for the response to the shooting. These families deserve more.
Red Sea: Indian Navy Rescues Cargo Ship Crew After Houthi Strike
The Indian Navy said it diverted one of its warships in the Red Sea region on Thursday to rescue a cargo ship — the Genco Picardy — after it was hit by a Houthi strike. Following the strike on the cargo vessel, which was carrying phosphate rock through the Gulf of Aden, the US military said it targeted 14 Houthi missiles that "presented an imminent threat" to both "merchant vessels" and US "Navy ships."
The Houthi missile strike, which the group claimed was a "direct hit," resulted in a fire on board the American bulk shipping boat, though India said it rescued all 22 crewmembers and extinguished the fire.
Narrative A
If this conflict between the Houthis and the West doesn't end soon, the world could see another round of inflationary spikes. Just as the COVID-era inflation was finally repairing itself, the costs of shipping from Asia to northern Europe have now increased by 173%, and from Asia to the US by 55%. While we haven't yet seen price hikes similar to the COVID peak, economically devastating inflation could very well be on the horizon.
Narrative B
It's fine to draw parallels with COVID supply chain issues, but it's also important to recognize that shipping bottlenecks at the time were a relatively small part of the problem; the larger issue was decreasing labor participation due to virus fear, which resulted in lower productivity and higher prices. The shipping industry has been significantly hit recently, but don't expect a return to 22. The disruptions caused by the Houthis are manageable.
Nerd narrative
There's a 22% chance that the US will enter a deflationary period before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Democrats Propose Bill to Codify Right to IVF
US Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) introduced a bill on Thursday, called the Access to Family Building Act, to make access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) and other "assisted reproductive technology" a "statutory right."
If passed, the law would permit people across the country to retain all their genetic material used during fertility care and allow the Justice Department to take legal action against any state that tries to limit access to fertility treatments.
Democratic narrative
After Republicans stripped women of their right to determine when they want to build families, it's more important than ever to protect their access to how they do it. Millions of Americans rely on IVF — one of the more affordable procedures — and other technologies to aid them in the pursuit of having children. If the GOP continues down its restrictive path, it'll eventually take even more control over women's bodies. Building families when and how you want must be defended.
Republican narrative
On top of the very obvious ethical concerns of IVF — such as abortion and the freezing of embryos — there are many other reasons for concern. First and foremost, prioritizing the use of and right to IVF has led scientists away from researching the underlying causes of infertility. Another secret Democrats probably want hidden is that a majority of women drop out of IVF treatment due to the psychological toll it takes on them. Instead of trying to overhaul biology, there must be work on repairing the natural systems that don't require risky experiments.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Serbian Opposition Leader Says He Was Beaten by Secret Service
Nikola Sandulović, an opposition leader in Serbia, claims he was beaten and tortured by Serbian secret service police, causing him to be paralyzed on his left side and suffer damage. He spoke out for the first time since the alleged incident, releasing a statement on Wednesday.
On Jan. 3, a black van allegedly came to Sandulović's home and took him to the Security Intelligence Agency headquarters where approximately 15 government agents beat him. The politician was hospitalized the next day before being transferred to a prison, where he could not communicate with the outside world.
Narrative A
The reprehensible abduction and abuse of Nikola Sandulović demonstrates the autocratic and oppressive nature of the Vucic regime. While the government accuses Sandulović of promoting unrest by simply posting a video of a Kosovan leader’s grave, Sandulović’s real "crime" is his criticism of Vucic. The Serbian government clearly has no qualms about abusing political dissidents, and the actions taken against Sandulović show that the Vucic regime doesn’t value democracy at all.
Narrative B
Nikola Sandulović is a politician who has no support from the Serbian people or its government, so he's now making up lies to undermine Serbian society and promote ethnic tension. There's no evidence that suggests that intelligence agents beat Sandulović, and he is trying to gain Western sympathy by running a smear campaign against Pres. Vucic and his government. Perhaps Sandulović should try to win over the Serbian people instead of making up lies to sow discord in Serbian politics.
Nerd narrative
There's a 46% chance that Serbia will be part of the European Union in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Blood Oxygen Feature Removed From Apple Watch to Avoid Ban
Amid ongoing legal battles with medical device company Masimo, Apple has announced that beginning Thursday, it will remove the blood oxygen feature from its latest Apple Watches in order to avoid an import ban.
Two of Apple’s latest smartwatches were subjected to an import ban after the US International Trade Commission ruled that the devices’ blood- oxygen sensor infringed on Masimo’s patents. A US Court of Appeals issued a temporary stay in late December, allowing Apple to sell its watches for the last three weeks.
Narrative A
The Federal Appeals Court made the right decision in not bending the knee to Apple and preserving the integrity of patent protection rights in the US. Apple thinks it can do whatever it wants by leveraging its massive corporate power and crushing smaller competitors. However, Masimo is not going down without a fight and is sticking up for the real innovators in technology. At this point, Apple is only relying on name recognition and brand equity to maintain its dominance.
Narrative B
Even in the face of a legal “loss,” Apple continues to come out on top and assert its status atop the tech mountain. Everyone knew that Apple could not be prevented from selling its iconic watch, and customers will always line up for the company’s products whether or not they contain certain niche features like a blood oxygen sensor. Masimo is trying to instigate a battle with Apple over an innocuous feature, but in the end, this whole saga only raised publicity for the Apple Watch and caused only a minor inconvenience for the tech giant.
Nerd narrative
There's a 69% chance that any Apple Watch model will feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.