Left narrative

This is why these transgender candidates are running for office. It seems extreme-right politicians won't just stop at passing anti-trans legislation, they're also willing to unevenly enforce laws that are already on the books. This is just another way to block transgender people from representing their community and working to protect those who are being dangerously marginalized.

Right narrative

It's vital that voters know the identity — and past identities — of candidates for office. Without that transparency, voters can't judge the candidates on their record, their experiences, and their relationships. Some of these transgender candidates have said they would have complied with the law if they knew about it. Then this isn't a case of legislation unfairly punishing transgender candidates, but of transgender candidates not doing their homework before running.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that there will be an openly LGBTQ person elected President of the United States by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Neighboring countries, especially Somalia, should come to their senses and realize that granting Ethiopia sea access would be in the best interest of the entire continent, as it would promote stability and unity in the region as well as boost its economic growth. It's outrageous that a peaceful and mutually beneficial agreement has been met with such a hostile response.

Narrative B

When Ethiopian officials claim their country has the right to own access to the sea, they are merely replicating a narrative that is as old as modern Ethiopia itself — and that has a lot in common with Nazi Germany's imperialist "Lebensraum" notion. Given that international law doesn't recognize ports and territorial waters as subject to the legal title of a state, Addis Ababa must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its neighbors.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 10 countries will formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state by October 2047, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

There's no independent proof of the Haeil-23 test, let alone that it was successful. In any case, Pyongyang is probably exaggerating both the development stage and capabilities of this weapon. Kim's irresponsible war rhetoric, coupled with the ongoing buildup of the world's fourth-largest standing army, indicates a significant strategic shift in which he may be looking to exploit the global geopolitical chaos to unleash a military conflict with the US and its allies. The free world needs to strengthen its military deterrence, for this is the only language Kim understands.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Haeil-23 is further proof that North Korea is technologically capable of defending its territorial integrity and sovereignty militarily, if necessary. It's not Pyongyang that's stoking regional tensions, but the US and its allies. Since Seoul has decided to stick to the geopolitically motivated US hysteria against the North, Pyongyang had no choice but to fundamentally shift its stance toward Seoul. Domestic opposition to the logic of confrontation is growing in South Korea, and by misjudging reality and miscalculating its strength, Washington and its vassals are heading for self-destruction.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that there will be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

OpenAI's decision to change its military policy provides America with an exciting opportunity to revolutionize the way it defends the world against adversaries such as China. AI has now reached a stage where its technology will be of benefit to the US, and the collaboration will give the government access to an exciting pool of private-sector tech scientists who can help bolster national security.

Establishment-critical narrative

OpenAI's change in policy is an intentional choice to expand its markets to the defense industry in order to rake in extreme profits at the potential expense of humanity's future. AI will leave the weapons industry unchecked, and futuristic robotic killing machines are possibly closer to reality than the world should feel comfortable with. Once and for all, the arms industry must finally be restricted by legislation before it is too late.

Nerd narrative

There's a 68% chance that "slaughterbots" will kill at least 50 people outside of a military conflict by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

AGI isn't just another form of AI, but an existential threat to humanity as a whole. If AGI isn't vigorously monitored, it will eventually become smarter than humans and develop itself exponentially until we can no longer put the genie back in the bottle. Once it's fully autonomous, it can decide to overtake human beings and the environment we inhabit. This is more than just the latest social app, and it requires much more scrutiny.

Narrative B

While there are risks involved in any advanced technology, we cannot forget about the incredible potential of AGI, particularly regarding the science. As AI companies slowly and cautiously roll out AGI to the world — and after periods of thorough safety testing — the world will be able to learn about and adapt alongside AGI to make their lives exponentially better economically and socially.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that the control problem (i.e. how to create AI that will benefit and avoid inadvertently harming its creators) will be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This is clearly a preparedness conversation officials do not want to have. However, Western citizens really must be ready for the prospect that we could be in a major war with Russia at some point in the next 20 years. Officials are doing their best to avoid that situation, but citizens should nonetheless be ready for the possibility.

Pro-Russia narrative

Unwarranted comments such as these only escalate the tensions and provoke a game of nerves with Russian military officials — no less with a huge military exercise taking place near Russia's borders next week. If the West truly doesn't want a war, it should stop provoking it with its short-sighted policies and inflammatory rhetoric.

Nerd narrative

There is a 99% chance that Sweden will join NATO before 2025, according to Metaculus community prediction.

Democratic narrative

Once again, there's proof that Democrats are keeping the country running while Republicans do nothing but make irrational demands and obstruct the legislative process. Every piece of legislation that's important for the American people, including this CR, makes it to the president's desk because of Democratic support — regardless of who sponsors it.

Republican narrative

There's no point in Republicans holding a majority in the House if Johnson's going to continue to cave to Democrats and allow them to continue funding their liberal agenda while ignoring the Biden-created mess at the southern border. This has to be the last CR, and if Johnson can't satisfy the demands of his own party, he may have to go.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by September 2067, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

It's obvious that rabid partisans from the left are attempting to derail Trump's reelection. This is unlawful and immoral. Millions of Americans will be denied their right to vote for the Republican frontrunner, and the faith of the electorate in the system will be lost, if SCOTUS doesn't reverse this injustice.

Anti-Trump narrative

Arguing that a president doesn't swear to "support the Constitution" is a laughable argument that shows Trump's desperation. This brief is full of weak and unrelated arguments because when it comes down to it Trump violated Section 3 and should have to face the consequences of his actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17% chance that Trump will be removed from the primary election ballot of a US state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Joe Biden’s administration continues to defy last year’s Supreme Court ruling, pushing radical wealth redistribution plans and stealing from hardworking taxpayers. The court decided that the executive cannot cancel $400B of debt without Congressional approval, but Biden’s rogue administration has decided to implement this unconstitutional plan in smaller waves.

Democratic narrative

Pres. Biden is keeping his promise to hard-working Americans who have devoted their lives to public service and have consistently sacrificed to pay their debts for more than 10 years. While far-right Supreme Court justices may have struck down Biden’s comprehensive plan, the administration has every right to relieve public workers and other borrowers from the immense burden of student debt.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US student loan debt bubble will “pop” by January 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.