Democratic narrative

Despite all the attacks on the administration's economic approach, the US economy continues to shatter expectations and deliver for the American people under Pres. Biden's leadership. While Donald Trump boasts about his economic "achievements" as president, he fails to acknowledge the economic boom that has taken place since he left office. Additionally, Trump didn't have to deal with global inflation, nor create a recovery strategy from COVID. Biden gets blamed for the mess left by Trump, while getting no credit for the economic recovery.

Republican narrative

Pres. Biden destroyed the economy so badly in his first two years that it would be impossible for things to get worse. Furthermore, despite some moderate GDP gains, inflation is still far higher than it should be, and middle-class Americans aren't receiving any benefits from this reported growth. Working families continue to pay significantly higher prices with little wage growth under the Biden administration. The economy isn't close to what it was under Donald Trump, and every American knows it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that real GDP growth in the US will be at least 1.8% in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

The White House and CIA are likely to have been involved in the decision to warn Iran ahead of the deadly Jan. 3 suicide bombings. This indicates how serious the US was in both looking to save innocent lives as well as signaling an intended thaw in its mood towards Tehran. Yet Iran ignored the warning for reasons that are unclear. This continues a pattern of Iran rejecting the good faith shown by the US in recent times — including last year's deal to unfreeze $6B in Iranian money held in South Korea in exchange for the release of US-Iranian citizens.

Pro-Iran narrative

Tehran is fighting a "war on terror" of its own. Exacerbated by simmering tensions caused by the Israel-Hamas war, this includes Israel's airstrike that killed five senior members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps in Damascus on Jan. 20 or the Dec. 25 strike that killed Iranian general Seyed Razi Mousavi in the same city, as well as the recent flare-up with Pakistan. Iran faces so many enemies — including the Islamic State group and US hegemony — and is justified in being cautious about all the information it receives in a volatile threat environment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by November 2039, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

While it's true that many countries have been pressured by Beijing to cut ties with their former friend Taiwan, that doesn't mean Tuvalu needs or wants to end its diplomatic relations. The two islands have shared strong ties on many issues, including agriculture, fisheries, and health — areas in which diplomatic cooperation is paramount. The two countries also share values that Beijing doesn't respect freedom and democracy.

Pro-China narrative

Tuvalu officials have already hinted at the potential for their government to correct course and respect China's sovereignty related to Taiwan. Now that Nauru — another small island nation — has withstood the pressure of Western governments, Tuvalu should feel secure enough to ignore Western rhetoric and join the majority of the world in distancing itself from Taiwan and strengthening its already-strong relationship with Beijing.

Pro-establishment narrative

The far-right, pro-Russia Viktor Orbán has repeatedly blocked measures agreed upon by the rest of the EU. Now his antics are threatening to leave Ukraine, an ally and key partner, without basic supplies and ammunition. The EU is right to consider removing Hungary's voting rights to, at the very least, make the country reconsider its position.

Establishment-critical narrative

Hungary has stated that it will not stand in the way of the EU's desire to send additional military aid to Ukraine. However, it cannot actively endorse the position, and has made clear its concern that the EU is continuing to pursue a wrong-headed policy that will only cause more harm and devastation.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The UK's suspension of trade negotiations with Canada is a relief for the union's farming and produce sectors. The UK has rightfully stuck to its guns by rejecting an acceptance of dangerous growth hormones within available food products. While compromise is necessary for any agreement, the UK's world-leading food safety standards will not be undermined at any cost.

Narrative B

Criticism surrounding Canada's widely-used hormone-treated beef lacks scientific basis, and the UK continues to face the consequences of its mismanagement of negotiations. Agreed timelines by both countries have been disrespected by the UK, and it's up to London to agree to concessions to avoid a tariff hike in product prices.

Narrative C

Nearly reaching the fourth anniversary of Brexit, the myth of liberation from EU regulations and consequent economic prosperity has been undoubtedly exposed. Outside of two terrible deals with Australia and New Zealand, the UK has nothing to show within its damaging and potentially permanent post-Brexit reality.

Narrative D

The UK's decision to pause negotiations is yet another setback for Trudeau and Canada. The UK's blanket rejection of hormone-treated beef only compiles misery on a country that has also seen discussions with India breakdown in recent months following diplomatic tension. Alongside further pushback from the US, Canada currently sees itself between a rock and a hard place in its attempts to secure beneficial trade deals.

Nerd narrative

There is a 63% chance that the UK will rejoin the European Economic Area before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's arrogance and unapologetic behavior led to him having to pay far more in damages than what Carroll was seeking. In other cases currently being adjudicated, Trump has claimed he's worth more than the prosecutor's claim, so it's no surprise Carroll saw a much larger sum in the end.

Pro-Trump narrative

Kaplan's courtroom rules were not worthy of Trump's respect, considering the baseless accusations the judge has allowed Carroll to throw Trump's way. Like many people before during Trump's time as a prominent public figure, Carroll and Kaplan are trying to destroy Trump for political reasons.

Nerd narrative

There's a 48% chance that Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

This is a landmark and historic ruling, not only in constituting a serious legal defeat for Israel but also by ordering it to take action to prevent further harm to the Palestinians who have already suffered for too long. It might take years for a full genocide ruling, but these provisional measures are definitely a step in the right direction.

Pro-Israel narrative

This is an outlandish and outrageous ruling from the International Court of Justice. Under international law, which Israel is unwaveringly committed to following, the country is entitled to defend itself from attack. Meanwhile, it's Hamas that's intent on wiping out the Jewish population. Israel will continue to respond to these existential threats.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The international community, including Kenya, must step in to stop Haiti's suffering. Gangs are committing murders and other heinous crimes while forcing thousands of children out of school due to deteriorating security. This UN-backed mission was requested by the Haitian prime minister, and Kenya and other nations should heed his plea.

Narrative B

The UN can't be trusted, considering its horrible record on Haiti. A previous attempt by the blue helmets to combat gangs resulted in innocent lives lost and more heinous acts taking place. The UN's attempt to help after the 2010 earthquake was also a failure. Financial support would be more effective than putting UN representatives on the ground in Haiti.

Cynical narrative

There may be nothing that can be done to help Haiti as long as a country as powerful as the US is holding the island back. From the George H. W. Bush presidency through today, US administrations have been involved in ousting and replacing duly elected leaders to benefit no one other than the US foreign policy establishment. Nothing positive will happen as long as foreign powers like the US keep meddling in Haiti's politics.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Haiti will become a World Bank upper middle-income country by January 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Biden demonstrated his strong leadership and commitment to climate justice on Friday by pausing approvals of LNG exports. The science is clear that the climate crisis is an existential threat, and fossil fuels are a leading contributor to environmental damage. Natural gas exports have risen dramatically since the DOE last studied its impact on the environment, and it would be an injustice to allow rampant exports without knowing the environmental consequences.

Republican narrative

Biden continues to allow his administration to be hijacked by radical climate cultists who want to completely destroy the oil and gas industry without any viable replacement. Not only does Biden’s decision to halt exports hurt the American economy and eliminate thousands of jobs, but it also plays right into Russia’s hands. Regardless of one’s opinion on fossil fuels, LNG will be a crucial part of the world’s energy supply for decades to come, and Biden’s assault on American energy independence hurts the entire world.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 80.47% of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This AI production is a slap in the face to the iconic comedian and an example of the problems AI is causing for humanity. Right now, most AI-generated content is poor quality and can be identified as AI fairly easily. However, as the technology improves, it will be more difficult to differentiate it from humans. AI of this sort might be more trouble than it's worth.

Narrative B

The backlash to this special shows people don't understand how AI works. AI might be labeled "artificial," but it's made through the use of human input. People should think of the AI as an impressionist paying homage to the late, great comic, not as some sort of danger to humanity.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that there will be human-machine intelligence parity before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.