Establishment-critical narrative

Echoing the peasant wars of the Middle Ages, farmers in Europe are now staging mass demonstrations against the crumbling postwar European power structures that have shifted onto their own food suppliers the burdens of sustaining the prolonged agony of the neoliberal US world empire. Yet, mainstream media have downplayed this continent-wide farming revolution as a minor development — as if they have been instructed what and what not to cover.

Pro-establishment narrative

Farmers have reasons to protest, but the far-right has fueled their outrage against the EU with false claims to attract new voters in the run-up to European elections this summer, given that only one-quarter of the French farming community cast a far-right vote in the past presidential elections. Meanwhile, the French government has been left with a delicate balance to walk as it must meet their demands to prevent another volatile chapter in the "Gilets Jaunes" yellow vests movement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

Following continuous attacks on US regional targets, Iran has now crossed a red line with the deaths of US military personnel. The ongoing war in the Middle East may be asymmetrical, but that shouldn't deter Washington from taking more decisive military action — directly or indirectly — against an Iranian regime that's escalating tensions.

Pro-Iran narrative

Given the US role in the raging conflict in the Middle East, it was only a matter of time before American military personnel suffered casualties. Resistance groups in the region have long criticized American hegemony for supporting Israel's atrocities on Palestinians. It's clear that the US is now trying to unilaterally escalate the conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 14% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

This is bad news for Beijing's leaders. Over the past two decades, China's real estate sector has been a major economic driver, but massive property speculation has fueled a huge real estate bubble that Beijing has been slow to resolve. Several smaller property developers have already been forced into bankruptcy, and Evergrande's liquidation order has the potential to destabilize China's entire financial system.

Pro-China narrative

There's still much uncertainty around Evergrande's liquidation procedure, but there has been quite a bit of media hype. The procedure will take months, if not years, but will most likely have a minor impact on the general market. The PRC's overall recovery in the real estate sector is still proceeding well, and the liquidation request is a common legal procedure in Hong Kong's legal system.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that China's GDP will overtake the US before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This ill-considered move by these three countries demonstrates their preference for populist measures over a return to the rule of law. Although they have the right to criticize France and other colonial powers, their hypocritical turn to Russia as an ally is putting the region and world at greater risk.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's ECOWAS's fault these countries have made this decision. ECOWAS has failed to fulfill its founding mandate and find diplomatic solutions to a multitude of existing regional problems. Instead, the organization has turned into a tool of foreign interests to reinstate "democratic" puppet governments that fail at combating Islamist threats.

Nerd narrative

There's a 61% chance that Mali will experience a successful coup d'etat before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community,

Pro-Palestine narrative

The decision to halt all funding to the UNRWA will push Gaza to the brink of famine. Israel has already hindered the agency from helping the Palestinian people by bombing several of its locations, but now the humanitarian body could run out of all supplies within a month. This is not about punishing Hamas but starving Palestinians.

Pro-Israel narrative

Reports into what some of these UNRWA staff did on the day of Oct. 7 are appalling, and at the very least, fall way below the standard expected by the UN. Funding to UNRWA should be halted until this mess is cleaned up and the agency is replaced with a more appropriate humanitarian delivery structure.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline and medicine in Gaza by June 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

A second round of Voting places Stubb in the driving seat to be Finland's next president. While Stubb and Pekka Haavisto finished neck-and-neck, Finland's center-right voter bloc far supersedes the progressive and alternative options that the SDP appeals to. The cumulative total of Finland's left-wing voting base from the first round reaches only approximately 35% — simply not enough to take him over the line. In order to become president, Pekka Haavisto must convince a sizeable proportion of the right-wing population that he is the man to lead Finland forward — a task much easier said than done.

Left narrative

Haarvisto's candidacy has survived the threat of the populist Halla-aho's recent polling surge and remains in the fight to historically become Finland's first openly gay president. An underdog for the entirety of the campaign trail, Pekka Haavisto's entry into the run-off should be considered in itself a success — and given the importance of the role of president, there should be a sigh of relief that populism will not be allowed to direct the country's future.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the Finnish people will get to decide the next president, the survival of both establishment candidates will be a bitter blow for the average citizen. The reality is that over half of Finns wanted to see neither Stubb nor Haavisto continue to bow to the EU and ignore Finland's damaging loss of self-determination. The winning candidate will be the one that listens to the outcries of the people best, and pledges once again to put Finland first.

Narrative A

Everyone who can do something to prevent the reelection of Trump to the White House must mobilize in that endeavor. Biden has moved too far to the left to provide the strongest challenge to the former president, so it could be time to find someone more middle-of-the-road to challenge Trump. Such a campaign wouldn't spoil Biden's chances, it would save America from the clutches of authoritarianism.

Democratic narrative

A presidential run for a third party would be a foolish move by Manchin, who risks putting the country in jeopardy and tarnishing his own legacy. Biden and his policies are plenty bipartisan, and he's getting things done he promised to do. Biden deserves a second term, and Manchin should stay away from being associated with No Labels, which is a corporate-backed, problematic operation.

Republican narrative

Joe Manchin is definitely right when he says that the Biden administration has been hijacked by the far left, but he doesn't seem to recognize that his entire party is overrun with extreme leftists. While Manchin's moderate approach as a red-state Democrat may appeal to some voters, he would likely just eat into Biden's fraying support base. A third-party run for Manchin would likely just increase Donald Trump's chances of returning to the White House.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that Manchin will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The Biden administration has failed to enforce immigration laws and secure the border, allowing millions to illegally enter the US. This peaceful trucker convoy will represent the American people and show that enough is enough while demanding the president to do his job.

Democratic narrative

As tensions rise between Texas and the federal government over immigration, far-right extremists who claim that a new civil war is looming are attempting to organize an armed convoy to the southern border. It's evident that they're planning anything but peaceful rallies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 47% chance that if at least one US state secedes before Jan. 1, 2071, it will be Texas, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

The EU's radical mantra about gendered language may be laughable, but it's also a dangerous threat to basic speech rights and language itself. Gender connotations are a core part of many languages. Moreover, the EU should be dealing with more crucial matters rather than committing time and resources to policing language.

Left narrative

The headlines make it seem like the EU is calling for a ban on certain words when in fact this document is just asking people to consider more inclusive terms. If there are more important matters for legislators to handle, they should attend to them rather than drumming up controversies about bad-faith culture war topics.

Narrative A

Vaping is addictive and causes people to inhale harmful chemicals whose long-term impacts have not been fully studied. This law is a step in the right direction toward preventing children from vaping.

Narrative B

It's reasonable of course to restrict access to vaping products for children. That said, it's important to be wary of alarmist state overreach — like installing anti-vape sensors and close-circuit televisions in schools that bring up serious privacy concerns.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that a country will implement a total civilian ban on the consumption and smoking of tobacco by June 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.