Anti-Trump narrative

Charles Edward Littlejohn did an obvious public service by leaking Donald Trump's tax records. With these out in the public domain, Americans were made aware of the true character of the man sitting in the world's most powerful position. It showed people how bogus his claims were and pricked the aura of his business success.

Pro-Trump narrative

The timing of the first publication of Trump's tax records — right ahead of the presidential debate in 2020 — was enough to understand that this was a hit job. The former president has openly admitted that he availed of legitimate government tax benefits to reduce his dues like any US citizen. Littlejohn must be held accountable for his weaponization of authority.

Nerd narrative

There's a 32% chance that over 40% of US tax filings will be filed using paid tax preparers in 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Zuma's suspension follows the ANC constitution and was a long overdue step. It was the ANC itself that created the Zuma problem by helping him and his kleptocratic system to power and then shielding him from being held accountable for corruption charges. His suspension is a first step toward fulfilling the promise to renew the party to lead South Africa out of crisis. This decision restores at least some credibility to the party that led South Africa out of apartheid and could bolster its position ahead of the upcoming general elections.

Narrative B

The reason for the emergence of the MK party is the ANC itself, whose corrupt and incompetent government has plunged South Africa into a deep economic crisis. The suspension of Zuma is further proof that Ramaphosa's party has finally abandoned its old anti-apartheid era ideals and has become a proxy of white monopoly capital. MK's momentum is based on the awareness that there can never be reconciliation and freedom without socio-economic equality and justice. South Africa needs political renewal, and MK will play its part in achieving this.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Polling data shows that, regardless of ideology, restoring the integrity of Stormont and addressing the influx of public sector crises continues to be the central priority of Northern Ireland. The people of NI are strongly opposed to the political games that have left them leaderless for nearly two years and, despite dissatisfaction over the Windsor Framework, opinion is clear that no point of policy contention should supersede NI's democratic mandate and the protection of the region's right to self-determination.

Narrative B

With the details of the DUP's agreement yet to be unveiled, there's little hope that two years of protest have resulted in the legislative amendments that Unionists continue to demand. The DUP has likely failed to enact the changes necessary for NI's future but has conceded defeat. NI is once again destined to enter a fragile power-sharing executive which history shows us is inevitably and inherently unsustainable.

Nerd narrative

There is a 33% chance that Northern Ireland will hold a reunification referendum before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Neuralink has overcome numerous obstacles that were thrown in its way, but this ground-breaking achievement proves the company's relentlessness was well worth it. With over $150M in funding, Musk's startup has raced to the top of its industry.

Narrative B

Neuralink has achieved something historic, but it can't get complacent. Already, Chinese scientists have developed their own brain chip and Beijing has set a goal to develop its own Neuralink-like products by next year. Musk better be ready for stiff competition in this unique space.

Narrative C

Moving forward, the negative effects of this sort of technology can't be ignored. These brain chips could be as easily hacked as computers and phones, which could lead to human- or AI-caused harm. Musk and others shouldn't race ahead too quickly.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the FDA will grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers by August 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While corruption surged under Khan, Pakistan's place in related indexes has been steadily improving since Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took power. There is still work to do, but these developments demonstrate why Sharif is the right leader.

Narrative B

The circumstances under which this verdict was reached were highly unusual, raising legitimate questions about whether Khan received a fair trial and whether any of his other rights were violated. These developments threaten the independence of Pakistan's judiciary, bringing the country closer to totalitarianism.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The impeachment attempt is merely a political stunt by Republicans, who did not even allow Mayorkas to testify in his own defense. House Republicans could do more to address the issues at the border but instead want the problems to linger — hoping a chaotic border will work in their favor come this November's elections.

Republican narrative

The only political games being played here are by Democrats, who continue to support a Homeland Security Secretary who is failing to enforce US immigration law. By failing to join Republicans in this impeachment, Democrats will be actively complicit with the cartels in undermining US security.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 7.7%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

UPS has typically not pursued mass layoffs as a fiscal policy, but with the costs of sorting and shipping packages going up, the company needs to consolidate sorting facilities and streamline its technical operations. To make shipping less expensive for customers, UPS will now have to take this freed-up cash and invest it heavily in technology.

Narrative B

Corporations have no idea what AI's potential is, let alone what the long-term consequences in the labor force will be. While executives have so far agreed with the optimistic predictions of tech companies, history shows us that they usually choose more profits when technological changes occur. People could very well end up working shoulder-to-shoulder with AI, but they could also end up jobless.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Amazon will deliver some products by drone by June 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and 26K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas's top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.

Narrative A

As authoritarianism grows around the world, anti-corruption mechanisms are dwindling. This is shown especially in Central Asia — a canary in the global corruption coal mine — where democracy has been on the decline, and police, prosecutors, and courts are prevented from holding the powerful to account. If anti-corruption mechanisms are not put in place, this culture of impunity for the powerful will only worsen.

Narrative B

A report of newfound corruption in Europe should come as no surprise. Since the 1990s, the EU has endured corrupt election supervision systems and pay-for-play sanctions policies, among other scandals. To say Europe and Western powers have only recently become corrupt is an absolute understatement — all too often actors from these countries are the ones facilitating corruption in the Global South.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

All banks must be held responsible when they don't protect their customers from scammers, and, in some instances, ignore fraud. In this case, CitiBank thinks a basic disclaimer against scams is enough to remove any liability for stolen customer funds, but that's not true. Security measures must be improved and customers must be reimbursed when they're victimized.

Narrative B

It's easy to just blame the banks in situations like this, but there are many factors at play. First and foremost, banks shouldn't be held liable in instances of customer negligence. Sometimes, banks should reimburse customers, but it's also incumbent on customers to be more careful because there are always going to be scammers trying to make a quick buck.