Narrative A

Elon Musk joined Tesla at a time when the company was in deep crisis. He worked almost around the clock to fix the problems at the now-iconic electric vehicle manufacturer. Even when he testified in court in November 2022, the company had achieved 11 of the 12 benchmarks set before Musk to fulfill his pay package deal. The pay, though it may seem gigantic, is fully justified.

Narrative B

Tesla's company board needs a few independent directors who could apply fair standards to initiate the restructuring of Musk's exorbitant pay package. Musk may argue that the firm hasn't lost anything since he hasn't exercised his stock option, but his salary is a disservice to shareholders and the firm must address the governance issues that led to this situation.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance that Elon Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

The hypocrisy and irony of Cori Bush incessantly demanding for police to be defunded while paying hundreds of thousands for private security is untenable. Bush has previously argued that it's time for people to"suck it up" and defund the police — it's time for her to face the consequences of the illegal abuses of her government office.

Democratic narrative

Cori Bush — like many members of the female- and minority-led Squad — continues to be the target of dangerous threats and incessant criticism from the far right. Paying family members a fair price for services using campaign finance is legal. This brings to question whether she would face such scrutiny from the right if she hadn't been a leader in the Black Lives Matter movement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 14 percent of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Zaluzhnyi is a widely trusted general and has commanded Ukraine's Armed Forces since before the Russian invasion. Losing a competent, respected, and combat-tested leader at a time when the country is hanging on for territory would be a colossal mistake and one that should be avoided. No one is more suitable for the job than him.

Narrative B

While Zaluzhnyi is a trusted leader, reports suggest that disagreements between Zelenskyy and him date back to the spring of 2022 and have again flared in recent weeks. Though sacking him may be unpopular, the decision to fire him needs to be taken as Ukraine cannot have a situation where its military and political leadership are not coordinated.

Nerd narrative

There's a 68% chance that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be re-elected president in the next Ukrainian elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Due to war and climate change, sub-Saharan Africa is suffering the worst malnutrition crisis in the world, with tragically high numbers of children suffering from rapid weight and muscle loss and stunted growth. Systems must be put in place to better detect these ailments, after which these issues can be solved when the international community provides them with the necessary foods or supplements to grow properly and thrive.

Establishment-critical narrative

Climate change isn't causing regional conflicts and famines. In reality, it's the West and its nongovernmental organizations, international organizations, and propaganda outlets that are instigating civil strife. When governments in Africa refuse to play along with the likes of NATO and the US, the West responds by stirring up conflict which results in the tragedies we see in the news today. Real solutions require addressing these deep systemic issues.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that there will be fewer than 375M people in extreme poverty by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

These protesters have genuine grievances that must be tackled, but the growing threat of violence is also a cause for worry. French farmers mean it much more than their peers in other countries when they warn of "direct action," and the size of the protests this time around is ominous. This is despite the government making the right promises, including protections against imports.

Establishment-critical narrative

The government is not meeting the farmers' needs, this protest enjoys widespread grassroots support — 89% according to one estimate — even from outside the farming circle. The farmers' call to save the rural way of life is resonating with a wide section of French society. Even 81% of the ruling party supports this movement, showing popular disdain for the new prime minister and his policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite his overwhelming outpouring of support, it would be surprising if Nadezhdin isn't barred from running for president, given Putin's history of persecuting political rivals and shutting down any genuine political opposition. Democracy in Russia is performative, as no candidates actually capable of beating Putin are allowed to run — something that must change if Moscow wants to align with the rules-based international order.

Pro-establishment narrative

None of the other candidates campaigning against Putin stand any chance due to the president's current popularity. All of Russia is united in favor of this longstanding successful leader. At times of turmoil, like Russia being at war with Ukraine, it's especially important that the Russian people come together and vote for stability in the face of a threatening, hegemonic West.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by October 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The health and safety factors at play have never been lost on the government, but the rate at which this drug has infected the streets has been difficult for everyone to catch up with. The danger of fentanyl is unlike any other drug, which is why each level of government in the state has been developing coordinated programs to combat the issue. This emergency declaration is Oregon's strongest anti-fentanyl effort yet, and it will also be the most impactful.

Republican narrative

All of the Democrats' favorite policies have come together to create this tragedy. After the city defunded the police in 2020, drug use and homelessness skyrocketed, prompting them to increase the police budget by over $5M a year later. And after they decriminalized drugs, both drug addiction and overdose deaths soared through the roof. This is a manmade crisis that could've been avoided if the state, county, and city governments had chosen common sense over politics.

Narrative A

Congratulations are due to the bipartisan group of senators who are taking on this issue and confronting these CEOs who are profiting off the exploitation of children. Wednesday’s hearing was a step in the right direction. Still, much more needs to be done to protect children from the dangers of social media exploitation because too often these platforms have placed profit above safety.

Narrative B

These CEOs are truly sorry for any harm their platforms have caused. Many families have dealt with unthinkable suffering, but as studies have been released to help better mitigate the harms, the platforms are doing what they can to implement controls and tools to make their sites as safe as possible. More will be done moving forward to provide security for kids and improve industry standards.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and over 26K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas' top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is a fool's errand, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though, of course, this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas' military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.

Establishment-critical narrative

Thankfully, the Fed seems to be moving beyond its overly hawkish policy of nonstop rate hikes, but instead of keeping rates constant and stalling the economy until inflation reaches 2%, it should cut interest rates immediately and allow the economy to grow. While some say the Fed is being moderate in its current approach, the fact remains that rates are still at a year high. The Fed’s policy has done little to bring down inflation, and any cool-down is due to natural economic cycles.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Fed has taken a deliberate approach to its rate-setting policy, and it seems like it has moved past its series of rate hikes. However, the Fed is rightfully wary of decreasing key rates as soon as the economy gets stronger. While some investors may get frustrated by this approach, the Fed’s patience has allowed the economy to continue growing at a stable rate while also slowing down rampant inflation. There are many moving parts that factor into rate decisions, and the Fed is prudently waiting for the economic picture to become clearer.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US Federal Funds Rate will be 4.9% or lower on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.