Progressive narrative

Folding in the face of angry and violent farmers shows a lack of political will on the part of European politicians. Fearing the far right's alarming rise across Europe, incumbent leaders have shown no inclination to take substantial steps to reasonably inform the farmers, let alone tackle their aggression. This is hypocrisy at its finest, and a serious threat to the environment.

Conservative narrative

The EU has done anything but cave to the demands of these farmers. The protesters driving their tractors across Europe are still angry because their leaders are pushing ludicrous policies, like banning the use of fertilizer and forcing land to go fallow. These policies aren't about saving the environment but rather introducing a Soviet-style system of control over the people who ensure food is on the table.

Nerd narrative

There's a 27% chance of the EU meeting its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite all the hype surrounding BRICS and its alleged growing global influence, the group is unlikely to surpass the G7 as the world's most powerful economic bloc in the years to come. The high-flying vision of reshaping the supposedly unjust, US-led global order will fail due to the group's political, economic, and cultural fragmentation. For example, it's doubtful that the world's largest democracy, India, will accept the growing dominance of autocratic China. Growth alone is no guarantee of success, and BRICS has no solution to its founding defect.

Establishment-critical narrative

The BRICS expansion is further proof that the multipolar world order is taking shape and that the bloc is a driving force behind this trend. An increasing number of Global South countries are rejecting the West's efforts to impose its political and economic will on them. It's precisely from its heterogeneity that the BRICS draws its strength and overcomes the differences and disputes between countries such as India and China. BRICS' growth illustrates the attractiveness of this concept in contrast to the West's unipolar model dominated by the US.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that any new member will leave BRICS before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite an uncertain future in the Senate, the bill should be a much-celebrated moment of rare bipartisanship in what is usually a cagey and divided House. While some opposition to the bill inevitably remains on both sides, moderates in the House have done what many deemed impossible and bridged the political divide for the benefit of the American people.

Establishment-critical narrative

Beyond its title, there's little to celebrate concerning the House's intentionally deceitful bill. Under the veil of taxation reduction, 91.5% of the bill's impact will not be found within the pockets of America's typical household. Rather, the legislation de facto expands welfare eligibility which is harmful from a workforce and immigration perspective. Once again, Congress continues to ignore the average American citizen.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the Republican Party will maintain a majority in the House of Representatives in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

It's clear that DeSantis and his allies had teamed up to violate Disney's First Amendment right to free speech, threaten its business, and hurt it financially for its criticism of GOP lawmakers' regressive and reactionary "Don't Say Gay" law. This ruling sets a dangerous precedent and opens up the floodgates for speech suppression.

Republican narrative

The state law stripping Disney of more than five decades of autonomy over the special development district wasn't unconstitutional. Disney may own the land in the district but doesn't have a right to run its own government, make decisions without consulting with state officials, or be placed above the law. Disney's woke agenda just didn't fly here.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Ukrainian people have desperately waited for this lifeline for months, so, thankfully, every state leader within the bloc finally took a stand to offer their support. Not only does this funding help protect Ukraine, but it also helps ensure Russia can't threaten European security further to the west. As compromises were made that benefit every party involved, the EU can rest assured that it's impenetrably unified against Russian aggression.

Establishment-critical narrative

The EU's performative, albeit somewhat financially significant commitment to Kyiv will do nothing for the Ukrainian people and even less for its own citizens. For all their talk about Russia threatening to move further west than Ukraine, the EU and NATO have only seen their militaries shrink in size and funding. This war has been and will continue to be between Moscow and Kyiv — and Russia is still winning.

Nerd narrative

There's a 29% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

In this latest exchange, Ukraine was able to return 207 of its defenders home. Ukraine will always do everything in its power to ensure that those held in Russian captivity will be returned.

Pro-Russia narrative

Despite Ukraine's illegal and terroristic actions in bringing down a Russian military plane, Moscow will continue conducting prisoner exchanges as it's important that its people are returned home. 195 prisoners were returned in the latest exchange.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that the next Russian leader will disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

NSO may claim that it only sells its products to properly vetted intelligence and law enforcement agencies, but the truth is that it's selling spyware to foreign governments fully aware that they will likely abuse the software. There are many well-documented cases of spyware being used for politically motivated invasions of privacy to surveil human rights activists and journalists. There needs to be more oversight for spyware companies so that this dystopian business does not continue to happen.

Pro-establishment narrative

As one of the globe's most powerful cyberweapons, Pegasus has been utilized by governments worldwide to thwart terrorist attacks, fight organized crime, and even take down a child trafficking ring. As technology has improved, criminals have been able to hide their shady dealings, but this spyware changes the game. While NSO cannot entirely control what its products are used for, the company has terminated some contracts in the past over reported abuses and remains committed to keeping its software in the right hands. This is ultimately a force for good, even if some rare abuses get media coverage.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1.6% chance that at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon will be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This announcement is a win for the victims of the FTX scam. The law clearly states that debtors must receive compensation based on the date of bankruptcy. The government has convicted these fraudsters and forced them to find the money to repay their customers. Plus, Bankman-Fried will probably wind up behind bars.

Establishment-critical narrative

The potential for victims to recoup some funds shouldn't overshadow that Alameda Research was also linked to multiple sketchy banks whose business dealings seem to have been conveniently overlooked by regulators. There must be as much scrutiny of the corporate-government cooperation in this case as there has been of Bankman-Fried.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Bankman-Fried will be sentenced to at least 287 months in prison before Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

eBay chose to settle this case because it knew it had violated several government regulations, in particular the CSA. Hopefully, this financial penalty will deter the e-commerce giant from ever placing these items for sale again.

Narrative B

This settlement isn't an admission of guilt, but a way to avoid the cost of a lengthy legal battle. eBay continues to have a positive history of working voluntarily with law enforcement to take such products off its site. Customers can rest assured eBay will continue to provide safe and customer-focused service.

Anti-Trump narrative

Whether he’s the plaintiff or the defendant, Donald Trump continues to lose every legal battle he’s engaged in. The former president complained continuously about the Steele dossier, yet he waited many years to file any sort of legal action. Judge Steyn correctly called out the frivolous suit and his passivity, but that doesn’t end Trump’s legal woes by a longshot. This ruling is just an omen for future Trump legal losses.

Pro-Trump narrative

Everyone knows that the Steele dossier was a slanderous fabrication paid for by Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party that sought to undermine Trump before he even took office. Even a biased judge couldn’t refute the heinous lies that the dossier contained, simply dismissing Trump’s case because he let too much time elapse. The judge also used various legal technicalities to throw out the case and deprive Trump of having a legitimate hearing. Regardless of the outcome, the Steele dossier exposed the corruption of Trump’s enemies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 60% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of at least one crime in his federal court cases before the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.