Republican narrative

While Biden and the Democrats seek to open the Southern Border, Republican governors like Kristi Noem are standing with Texas against a literal invasion. Not only does an open border undermine American sovereignty, but it also invites and incentivizes drug cartels to continue bringing fentanyl into the US, as well as trafficking children and preying on people’s desperation. South Dakota has an obligation to protect its citizens, as the border crisis has impacted every state in the union.

Democratic narrative

Kristi Noem is playing politics with her latest border stunt, and now she is using the plight of the Oglala Sioux Tribe as a political weapon to increase her standing on the national stage. She only seems to care about Native American tribes when it's politically expedient, trying to appeal to the MAGA base with her harsh rhetoric on the border. Moreover, her claim that there's a local gang called the Ghost Dancers that is affiliated with cartel members in Pine Ridge is nothing but an insult to the tribe's traditions. Her disingenuous rhetoric is a dangerous game pitting some Red States against the federal government.

Cynical narrative

The majority of Americans — both Republicans and Democrats — feel that immigrants fill jobs that most US citizens will not take. Despite the polarizing political rhetoric, America's de-industrialized economic system depends on cheap immigrant labor to function. This is not acknowledged enough in political discourse on either side when discussing potential solutions.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that Kristi Noem will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Iran is apparently calling the shots here. It hasn't faced the consequences of attacking the US and is unlikely to. Hitting its proxies is not the answer. That is a way too predictable and tired approach by US Pres. Joe Biden, proving again that his bite is as feeble as his bark.

Democratic narrative

Faced with the prospect of an all-out war in the Middle East, Biden is taking a practical approach to US retaliation. A direct strike on Iran will guarantee an escalation in the conflict, which, for all practical purposes, would be unsustainable. Pin-pointed surgical strikes that do maximum damage to the rogue nation's strategic tentacles are what the US must aim for.

Pro-Iran narrative

Though the Western media may portray Iran as a rogue state acting belligerently, in reality, US foreign policy is the primary driver of violence and instability in the Middle East. By occupying countries in the region like Iraq and Syria while ruthlessly supporting Israel's brutal campaign against Palestinians in Gaza, the US has directly thrown fuel on the fire of regional tensions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance of Iran possessing a nuclear bomb by 2030, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.

Narrative A

The rules and regulations make it obvious that it's inappropriate to run a gas storage and filling business near a residential area. Running the operation was a crime, as was allowing it to operate in the first place. The authorities knew of the illegal operation but did nothing to stop it. Rumors are swirling about local officials being bribed for violating building codes and regulations. Corruption and negligence could very well have helped to create this horrible tragedy.

Narrative B

Those responsible for this disaster will be held accountable. Last year, the owner of the illegal LPG refilling and storage site where the blast occurred, as well as some of his customers, had already been convicted and sentenced. An investigation needs to be conducted before jumping to conclusions, but Kenya has robust systems in place to probe disasters like this and prosecute as appropriate.

Nerd narrative

There's an 11% chance that Kenya will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Schulte was placed in a position of trust by the US government. Not only did he betray that trust by brazenly committing one of the most substantial cases of espionage this century, but he also continued his criminal behavior in prison by attempting to leak further damaging documents in addition to accessing child pornography. Federal investigators did an amazing job bringing this traitor to justice, and a year prison sentence is an appropriate punishment.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Special Administrative Measures that Schulte is placed in — which will continue throughout his year sentence — means he's held in solitary confinement in a cell the size of a parking space for 23 hours a day. He has no access to reading materials or entertainment, and is allowed no visitors except his lawyers. While Schulte broke federal laws, and nothing excuses his possession of child pornography, that doesn't mean he should be tortured — this is revenge for him informing the American people of their government's unscrupulous activities.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that the US will drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Hamilton is at the twilight of his career, and, naturally, he couldn't ignore the lure of Ferrari — Formula One's most successful team by far in history. Having lost three back-to-back championships, a move to Ferrari could reignite his challenge for the record eighth title — which he had no real chance of winning at Mercedes.

Narrative B

Despite his poor run of late, Hamilton remains the biggest, most successful driver in F1. While, despite signing all-time greats like Fernando Alonso, Ferrari hasn't won a driver's championship in the past 15 years. The prestigious name in the sport needed F1's most decorated champion to end its drought rather than the other way around.

Narrative C

Hamilton's groundbreaking decision — less than a month from the start of the 2024 F1 season — not only deals a huge blow to Mercedes and leaves a gaping hole in its driver lineup for 2025, but it will likely trigger changes to other F1 teams' lineups. The move is ill-timed and doesn't guarantee success, considering Red Bull has dominated the sport over the past two seasons.

Narrative A

The only reason General Zaluzhnyi could justifiably be removed is his failed counteroffensive. However, there's likely no other military leader in the country who could have done a better job, and his military qualities far outweigh the negative, petty differences he has with Zelenskyy. Ukraine has developed an incredibly successful defensive position— one that has remained strong due to Zaluzhnyi's ability to boost soldier's morale and continue to train new soldiers. Firing him would have no positive outcomes, but it could have negative ones.

Narrative B

First and foremost, President Zelenskyy has made no decision yet regarding Zaluzhnyi's future in the military. However, there are multiple reasons for Zelenskyy to consider dismissing him, including his creation of a charitable foundation in 2022 — which has been seen as the potential beginning of a political party to challenge the president. It's true that the majority of Ukrainians are against firing Zaluzhnyi, which is why Zelenskyy has taken a cautious approach.

Nerd narrative

There's a 67% chance that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be re-elected President in the next Ukrainian elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Not only has the US been adding jobs, but it's remained at the Fed's goal of 2% inflation for six months now and seen a very respectable gross domestic product jump of 3.3% at the end of last year. The unfortunate reality of today's America is GOP-led hyperpartisanship — which means that despite every economic figure trending in a positive direction, Republicans are going to ignore this tremendous news and mislead their voters ahead of the 2024 election. However, as more Americans begin to feel these positive trends, those lies won't work as well going forward.

Republican narrative

If this jobs-added report was so positive, why did both the labor force participation and unemployment rates remain unchanged? The report also hasn't counted the thousands of recently announced layoffs by companies including Google, Amazon, BlackRock, and UPS. And claims that real wages went up have been rendered baseless, as hours worked have gone down. The only positive news is that the Fed might lower interest rates — another Biden-appointed government body that chose to suffocate the economy as an official policy.

Nerd narrative

There's a 37% chance that the US will enter a recession before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel's war against Hamas is surely just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between Israel's military machine and Hamas's terrorist fighters. Humanitarian aid entering the strip must be significantly increased, while heavy fighting, especially the airstrikes, must be reduced. Israel risks pushing Palestinians into Hamas's hands if it does not work to ensure the safety of civilians.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hamas's military capabilities and infrastructure must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security. To eliminate this capacity for terror, Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to route Hamas forces, as they are so deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. The international community consistently parrots Hamas propaganda, as Israel worked from the get-go to deliver aid to Gaza and find a solution to end this war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, as over 1M Palestinians barely survive in dense and muddy tent camps while battling famine and disease. If Israel were to push into Rafah as it did Gaza City and Khan Younis, the consequences would be absolutely dire. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The world needs to know about the causes of this startling increase in cancer diagnoses, particularly in those under 50. Studies in recent years have already shown that rates of numerous types of cancer have gone up dramatically over the last three decades. While drinking, smoking, obesity, and processed foods are clearly at fault, an increase in sleep deprivation among children could also be a cause.

Narrative B

Although it's important to publicize cancer causes and try to limit them, it's also significant to note that cancer mortality has decreased significantly. In the US, cancer mortality rates have dropped by 33% since their peak in 1991. This positive trend will only progress thanks to advances in technology and medicine. Cancer won't go away, but the ability to defeat it is growing stronger.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers by June 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Fani Willis continues to discredit herself and show that she cannot be trusted to lead the investigation into Trump. Her attempts to dodge Congressional requests for documents will likely come to an end with the most recent subpoena. From strong evidence showing she misused federal funds to Willis' secret relationship with her hand-picked prosecutor, there's no doubt the sham investigation into the former president must come to an end.

Anti-Trump narrative

Republicans have been running cover for Trump by attacking Willis ever since she first announced her lawsuit against the former president. Despite seeming serious, these latest accusations are part of the GOP's clear vendetta against Willis and will only see Republicans continue to disgrace themselves in the defense of Trump while the district attorney rises above the clown show.