Republican narrative

The new Senate bill is just a stop-gap and an inadequate one at that. It does nothing to tackle the catastrophe along the Mexico border that the Biden administration has let brew. It barely attempts to touch upon matters that the Democrats had, till now, chosen to ignore. The White House must prioritize the southern border and take a hard look at its overseas engagements and whether it makes sense to prioritize military assistance for Israel over Ukraine.

Democratic narrative

Both Republicans and Democrats have put in months of hard work to shape the bipartisan border deal introduced on Sunday. It's a fair starting point in a long journey to foster a solid and effective immigration policy. The GOP hard right shouldn't hold US aid to its allies hostage due to grandstanding in an election year. The White House is committed to border security and supporting America's allies in a responsible manner.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US will give $3.1B in aid to Israel in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Climate change-driven extreme weather has worsened forest fires in Chile. Record heatwaves and unusually high temperatures have turned a general summer phenomenon into an unprecedented environmental disaster which, in the absence of a comprehensive response, threatens to destroy the ecological balance and cause unforeseeable harm to human habitats.

Narrative B

The culprit behind the extended hot and dry conditions — including low humidity and high wind speeds — isn't climate change but the El Niño weather phenomenon. It has caused droughts and led to hotter-than-usual temperatures along western South America, increasing the risk of forest fires. This is a natural phenomenon and outside the scope of Chile's climate mitigation efforts.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy tree cover exceeding 10Mha globally in any year by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-China narrative

China is pushing the envelope on everyday liberties and brazenly mocking the global community. Even by the country's own standards, Yang's case is appalling. His mistreatment, the opaqueness of his trial, and now his inexplicable death sentence — even if suspended — show a disregard for basic human rights. Alarmingly, this follows a wider pattern the free world must not ignore.

Pro-China narrative

Beijing has strong and valid reasons to believe Yang was spying for another country, but as usual, China's critics are lashing out at its legal processes without reason. His trial was held out of the public eye because it involved sensitive state secrets. Australia, along with other countries, must respect Chinese courts and stop interfering in its internal affairs. Yang's legal rights have been given all due consideration.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028 will be at least 11.3, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Houthis use the Gaza war as a pretext to justify their Red Sea aggression. Their anti-American and anti-Israeli stance serves the purpose of increasing their regional popularity and consolidating their domestic authority. The US and its allies' retaliatory strikes are a powerful means of deterring the Houthis and other Iranian proxies. Indeed, Washington's firm stance prompted Iran's proxy militia in Iraq to announce a halt to its operations against US targets following the attack that killed three US service members.

Establishment-critical narrative

Framed as retaliation for the deaths of three service members, the US and its proxies are stepping up their indiscriminate attacks against regional resistance groups such as the Houthis, who are allied with Iran but not under Tehran's command. The Houthis are conducting their operations in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, while the US is deliberately escalating tensions instead of asking Israel to announce an immediate ceasefire. The illegal and mindless US attacks will only accelerate the end of US regional hegemony.

Nerd narrative

There's a 13% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The decline of the democratic multi-party system in El Salvador is a matter of fact now, as the Latin American country is once again under a de facto one-party dictatorship that has co-opted state institutions. While Bukele may have recorded a supermajority due to an improvement in security, this nearly unanimous support may wane if his government fails to address the country's dire economic and social conditions.

Establishment-critical narrative

The result for Bukele is an incredible moment — a record-breaking show of support for a leader within the history of global democracy. After an unprecedented popular mandate, El Salvador continues to stand behind the man who has transformed the country for the better and will no doubt continue to lead the nation forward.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that El Salvador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Boeing is in close dialogue with its employees to identify where improvements can be made and is doing all it can to ensure issues such as this never arise again. Although this work will temporarily delay existing orders, Boeing is committed to carrying out this work to ensure the quality, safety, and stability of anything coming out of its factories.

Narrative B

It's completely unthinkable that these planes are still able to fly given that fresh issues are still being consistently reported. If you had a car that had a piece fly off while driving, prompting you to take it to a mechanic and the mechanic says, "Here you go. The car is fixed. We found other problems, but you can still take it out on the road," you would be scratching your head. This situation is no different.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that there will be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

This disturbing development should convince everyone about Carlson's tie to the Kremlin. He's been spreading pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine propaganda for years — to the point where Russian state media used his rhetoric on its TV stations. Carlson has shown his true colors before, but personally interviewing Russia's autocratic leader would be his most dangerous media decision yet.

Right narrative

Leading journalists used to conduct interviews like this for all sorts of world leaders. Modern-day broadcast journalists are afraid to do so out of fear of being labeled a Russian or Putin apologist. With every other Western media outlet already characterizing Putin as a literal tyrant, if done correctly, Tucker could give the world a fresh, unopinionated report to allow viewers to make informed decisions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladamir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by October 9, 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

What was once seen as a weather event that would happen once in a thousand years has now happened in consecutive months, and anthropogenic climate change is to blame. The oceans have warmed to record levels and are now combining with El Niño to create these catastrophic weather events. This is why it's time for those on the right side of the political aisle to take climate change seriously.

Right narrative

A little more than a year ago, the Golden State was relieved that several atmospheric rivers cured its historic drought. So, now that the climate has shifted to rainier winters, it's time for left-wing politicians who are too focused on an amorphous term like climate change — and the suggestion to harm energy security — to put more effort into building the physical infrastructure to mitigate harms from wetter weather.

Nerd narrative

There's an 80% chance that the US will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement before Jan. 1, 2029, if a Republican wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Narrative D

Hezbollah has so far successfully deterred Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty while also avoiding a devastating war that it does not want. Hezbollah cannot allow Israel to undertake such deplorable actions without consequence, and it has made concrete military gains against Israeli forces along the border. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond. Though Hezbollah seeks to end the bloodshed, it is ready to defend Lebanon.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.1% chance that Lebanon will come under French rule again before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Using this study as a basis for understanding the complex issue of climate change is ill-advised. First of all, much more needs to be known about the sponges and how they age — and using only sponges collected from one region of the world will not result in an understanding of surface temperatures globally. If this study is taken too seriously, it could blur the scientific consensus relied upon to win the global fight against climate change.

Narrative B

Whether global temperatures reached +1.5°C recently or not is somewhat irrelevant. The agreed-upon limit was set at 20 consecutive years of above pre-industrial temperatures, which means the world still has time and must work to bring CO2 levels down before it's too late. If we spend all our time debating at which point the limit has been breached — as a study like this suggests — we will one day wake up having crossed that threshold with no path of return.

Narrative C

The possibility that the Paris Agreement limit has already been passed shows how useless and misleading climate alarmism has been. Every climate solution proposed by the so-called experts on this topic has systematically stripped the developing world of any chance it has to grow and prosper. Instead of the rich and powerful putting their money toward strengthening economies and infrastructure, climate alarmists have made the world poorer and weaker with spongey science like this.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that the average global temperature in 2100 will be at least 2.61˚C higher than the average global temperature in 1880, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Meta's Oversight Board made very common-sense suggestions regarding manipulated content that respects freedom of expression online while seriously addressing the issue of altered content that could deceive voters. The proliferation of both AI-altered and non-AI-altered media has become a serious concern and is a big issue for democracy. Labeling audio and video media as "manipulated" will go a long way to ensuring that people are informed about what they are watching while not removing any and all satire.

Narrative B

While Meta’s Oversight Board levied some valid criticisms of the company’s manipulated content policy, its ruling on the fake Biden video is quite problematic given the imminence of the 2024 election and the amount of altered content circulating online. Many people are deceived by fake content online, and allowing a video that falsely depicts the president is dangerous — even if it's labeled as a manipulated video. The Oversight Board should have removed the fake video and issued a more iron-clad ruling.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance that Meta will claim there was AI-driven "coordinated inauthentic behavior" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.