Republican narrative

If anyone harbored doubts about Biden's age-related inabilities, the special counsel's report — and the president's bumbling response to it — should clear them all. Each time the Democratic party tries to deny it, Biden himself blows the lid open on his worst-kept secret. In any case, his age-related challenges are a "secret" only to him and his party, which somehow still expects the nation to give him four more years at the helm.

Democratic narrative

A political hatchet job was executed to perfection by a special counsel whose Beltway Republican credentials are well-known. Robert Hur has handed Donald Trump an easy line of attack against Biden in the run-up to the 2024 election. And it couldn't have been more below the belt than pulling the president's late son into the narrative of "If too senile to be prosecuted, then too senile to be president."

Nerd narrative

There is a 9% chance that Joe Biden will no longer be US president by Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Zelenskyy is the sovereign leader of Ukraine. While the US appreciates him keeping Washington informed of his decisions, it was purely his to make and the US will continue to work closely with whomever he decides to have in his top leadership.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the White House says this was solely Zelenskyy's decision to make, it nonetheless highlights the influence and power of the US on Ukrainian decisions. It's unimaginable that a leader of another country would have done the same.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2035, according to the Metaculus community prediction.

Pro-Trump narrative

Donald Trump cruised to an expected landslide in the Nevada Caucus, a race that Nikki Haley was too scared to compete in. Trump's overwhelming support among Republican voters is palpable even when he's not listed on the ballot as Nikki Haley lost to literally nobody. The GOP primary season is effectively over, and everyone is eager to see President Trump take on Joe Biden and return to the White House.

Conservative narrative

No matter the outcome of these primaries, Nikki Haley is strengthening the GOP. She is standing for true conservative values and exudes a youthful competence that's adding needed dialogue in the Republican Party. With Trump's other opposition in the GOP field gone, Haley now stands as an important voice in the party's future.

Democratic narrative

All things considered, it makes no difference whatsoever how Donald Trump wins the Nevada GOP caucus. Nevada will never go to Trump in a presidential election. Trump has already lost Nevada twice, in 2016 and 2020, and in November, he will be a three-time loser in that state.

Nerd narrative

There is a 97% chance Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

While several factors, such as population growth, do facilitate the spread of this mosquito-borne disease, climate change is the main driver of the worldwide spike in dengue cases. As humidity, rainfall, and temperatures have increased, mosquitoes are growing and incubating the virus faster.

Narrative B

While allegations that climate change and new weather patterns are to blame for mounting outbreaks of dengue fever offer a simple explanation that's comfortable both for those in power and ordinary citizens, this disease could have long been eradicated. It takes only some proactive, preventive measures to address this issue once and for all.

Narrative A

By choosing to interview Putin, Carlson exhibited a journalistic value regularly lost to the mainstream editorial elite a dedication and duty to platform all individuals for the benefit of readers and watchers worldwide, regardless of bias and ideology. Tucker's interview was historic and will provide the public with a greater foundation to be informed from all perspectives concerning an event of global importance.

Narrative B

Tucker Carlson's time with the Russian president shouldn't be considered journalism but rather an embarrassing publicity stunt promoting dishonesty and unjustified flattery at the expense of truth and the protection of democracy. Carlson rejected the opportunity to ask tough questions to one of the world's most violent dictators, instead prioritizing sensationalism for personal profit.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to be president of Russia by October 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Instead of congratulating, or at the very least accepting the iconic climate science discoveries of Michael Mann, Steyn and Simberg wrote inflammatory and defaming propaganda. Their columns and blog posts were clearly aimed at harming the reputation of a man whose work didn't align with their politics — but thankfully, the court brought these malicious efforts to light and rightly punished them.

Right narrative

Mann's controversial methods for creating the "hockey stick" graph were critiqued by many people at the time this case began — and in response, Mann himself used character assassination tactics to go after them. As for Simberg, what he did was simply wonder whether Penn State was covering for Mann the same way they did for their football coach. Mann is not infallible and deserves to be questioned.

Narrative C

Whatever side you're on, the defamation aspect of this case is over. The question that will be litigated next is whether the punitive damages were excessive. Supreme Court precedent shows that million-dollar punitive damages alongside thousand-dollar compensatory damages — a 1,1 ratio — do not meet the constitutional "due process" threshold.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be a year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1880 baseline before 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This is a sad day for Islam in Malaysia. By challenging the power of Sharia laws in Kelantan, the federal courts have put into question the powers of Islamic laws across the country. Malaysia is an Islamic country and should be governed by Islamic laws.

Narrative B

This ruling isn't an attack against Islam but an affirmation of the Malaysian constitution as the dominant law of the country. The powers of individual states are limited for a reason, and federal authority should be upheld. This ruling doesn't change the validity of the Sharia courts nor the existence of Islam as Malaysia's official religion.

Republican narrative

Hogan was a popular governor and his brand of bipartisanship obviously appealed to Maryland voters through two election cycles. Republicans should be celebrating the fact that Hogan might help them return to the Senate majority, and at the very least, Republicans will be putting up a fight for this seat.

Democratic narrative

Hogan might be popular, and he might be a moderate, but at the end of the day, he still holds views on several issues, including abortion access, that put him on the opposite side from most Democratic voters. This race might be competitive, but Democrats are still in the driver's seat in Maryland.

Nerd narrative

There's a 75% chance that the GOP will control the Senate after the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel's war against Hamas is just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between Israel's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters. Israel has not yet created acceptable conditions to move into Rafah, and it must have a concrete plan to evacuate civilians from any areas in which it will operate.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas once and for all to ensure Israel's security. To eliminate its capacity for terror, Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to rout Hamas forces, as they are so deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. Israel has worked hard to compromise and ensure the safety of civilians, but it will have to go into Rafah if an agreement is not reached soon.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, as over 1M Palestinians barely survive in dense and muddy tent camps while battling famine and disease. If Israel were to push into Rafah as it did Gaza City and Khan Younis, the consequences would be absolutely dire.

Nerd narrative

There's a 56% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Despite all of the lies, deceit, and abuse of power, the PTI has the overwhelming mandate of the Pakistani people. Imran Khan has had the full weight of the Pakistani political and military regime aligned against him, yet his ideas cannot be stopped. Unfortunately, the powers that be are still working behind the scenes to undermine democracy and manipulate as many votes as they can. Pakistanis and proponents of democracy around the world cannot stand idly by as Nawaz Sharif and his allies attempt a coup. The PTI won this election, and it will deliver for its supporters.

Narrative B

The Pakistan election still has no clear winners, but it appears that PML-N has secured the most votes. Pakistan has conducted a free and fair election where the will of the people is heard and honored. Unfortunately, violent extremists have perpetrated political violence that has delayed election results, but this election will be sorted out shortly. A coalition government will soon form to begin serving the Pakistani people.

Nerd narrative

There is a 47% chance that Pakistan will experience a successful coup d’etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.