Report: Missing Bolts Caused Alaska Airlines' Mid-Air Door Blowout
Four bolts that help secure the door plug of a Boeing 737 Max 9 were missing when an Alaska Airlines flight blew out mid-air last month, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) said on Tuesday.
In its 19-page preliminary report, the NTSB said the faulty door plug was opened to repair damaged rivets on the plane's fuselage at Boeing's factory in September 2023.
Pro-establishment narrative
Boeing has taken full responsibility for the mid-air emergency and continues to work closely with the NTSB and the Federal Aviation Authority to implement measures to improve safety and quality. Several new checks and quality control inspections have already been implemented to ensure this type of fault doesn't occur again.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's completely unthinkable that these planes can still fly, given the types of issues being reported. As an analogy, if you had a car that had a piece fly off while driving, prompting you to take it to a mechanic, and the mechanic says, "Here you go. The car is fixed. We found other problems, but you can still take it out on the road," you would be scratching your head.
Nerd narrative
There's a 16% chance that there will be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Papua Rebels Might Release Kidnapped New Zealand Pilot
The West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) Wednesday ordered its armed faction to release a New Zealand pilot it took hostage a year ago in a remote and mountainous area of Nduga in Indonesia's Papua province.
The kidnapped pilot, Phillip Mehrtens, was flying a small aircraft for Susi Air, providing "vital air links and supplies to remote communities," when he was abducted by armed rebels on Feb. 7, 2023, reportedly as a bargaining chip to advocate for Papua's independence.
Narrative A
Papua's demand for recognition of independence in exchange for a hostage is a desperate attempt to attract international attention toward the West Papuan crisis. Instead of using the pilot as a pawn for high-level political negotiations, the rebels should call for the UN to mediate the conflict.
Narrative B
This incident has renewed attention to one of the world's least-known and longest-running conflicts, which is why the TPNPB shouldn't lose its bargaining position. It should only free Mehrtens if Indonesia allows Papua to become a sovereign country after more than six decades.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Indonesia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Russian Missiles Target Kyiv, Other Ukrainian Regions
As the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its third year, a series of Russian drones and missiles again targeted Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions on Wednesday.
Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy described it as: "Another massive Russian air attack against our country." He added that, "[s]ix regions came under enemy fire," but that the aftermath is now being address by: "[a]ll of our services."
Pro-Ukraine narrative
As it has done throughout the war, Russia is continuing to deliberately target Ukraine's civilian population, as well as the energy infrastructure they rely on. Russian terrorism must be stopped.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has repeatedly made clear that it does not target civilians. All strikes are directed at military targets, including military warehouses, fuel depots, and training facilities.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
AI Used to Decode Ancient Roman Scroll
Three tech students have built an artificial intelligence (AI) model to virtually decipher a 2K-year-old ancient scroll thought to have been owned by Julius Caesar's father-in-law before it was burnt during the Mount Vesuvius volcanic eruption in 79AD. The discovery was part of the University of Kentucky Professor Brent Seale's "Vesuvius Challenge," which offered a $1M prize to anyone who could figure out how to decipher the carbonized text.
Among other cities, Mount Vesuvius' eruption destroyed the city of Herculaneum — home to the Villa of the Papyri library, which housed over 1.8K papyrus scrolls. While the heat and carbon from the eruption did preserve the scrolls, years of decay left them illegible. The students' AI model, however, was able to distinguish between papyrus and ink as well as translate faint lettering.
Narrative A
Following centuries of failed efforts to physically unravel these texts, followed by decades of technological advancements that could only partially unseal artifacts, new AI technology has revolutionized the field of archaeology. As these algorithms continue to unlock previously unopenable documents, researchers will be able to study philosophers and their yet-unknown influence on phenomena ranging from religion to the Classics.
Narrative B
While AI has been used to uncover groundbreaking historical discoveries, it can also be used to falsify the past, from newspapers to letters to government records. Long before the invention of AI, regimes like the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany rewrote the past to shape the future — now imagine what could be done with AI. Companies at the forefront of this technology need to work fast to mark all historical records and make them AI-proof before they can be altered.
Nerd narrative
There's a 4% chance that the US will restrict deepfake technology use to approved applications before 2025, according to the Metaculus community prediction.
UN Requests $4.1B For Sudan
The UN on Wednesday appealed for $4.1B in aid to Sudan, where a civil war has affected 25M people — more than half of the population. Ten months of conflict between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has severely damaged infrastructure, leaving some 18M hungry.
The "generosity of donors" is now key, said Martin Griffiths, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. He added less than half of last year's funding request was fulfilled.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite sanctions being implemented on the RSF by countries as rich and powerful as the US, the West has still treated the Sudanese people as insignificant compared to the attention focused on other countries such as Ukraine. If genocide in Sudan is truly occurring, as the US Secretary of State has claimed, why haven't these leaders been pushing the public to support giving the Sudanese just as much humanitarian aid as it has for Eastern Europe?
Pro-establishment narrative
The UN and international organizations have been at the forefront of Sudan's humanitarian mission since the violence began. Just as Sudan began its historic transition to civilian rule in 2019, these opposing factions have chosen to throw their communities into a life of suffering and fear. A significant portion of the local population has been receiving the aid they need, but local security issues and political pushback have hindered the UN from reaching everyone. Despite this, the UN system will continue calling for vital and additional assistance from the global community.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be at least 1.6 in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US House Votes Against Impeaching Mayorkas
The US House on Tuesday voted 214-216 against a Republican-led effort to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the southern border, as a handful of Republicans joined with all the Democrats.
The four Republicans who voted against the proposal were Reps. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), Ken Buck (R-Colo.), Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), and Blake Moore (R-Utah), who voted no as a procedural move so that the GOP could bring the resolution back to the floor at a future date.
Democratic narrative
Democrats and legal experts tried to warn Republicans that this political stunt would fail, but they still went forward with their baseless vote. Republicans claim they want to secure the border, but they're intent on removing the man in charge of doing so and have attacked him since he first took office. Now House Republicans must adjust to the humiliating defeat they've brought on themselves.
Republican narrative
Were it not for a few turncoats, this Republican effort to hold Mayorkas responsible for his criminal indifference to the crisis at the border would've passed. Mayorkas has failed bureaucratically and he must be removed from office. In the near future, all Republicans will be available to vote, and — despite the efforts of Democrats and a couple of unfortunate GOP outliers — this measure will pass and Mayorkas will be held to account.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 6.2%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
5 Marines Confirmed Dead After Helicopter Crash
All five US Marines aboard a helicopter that went missing on its way to San Diego were confirmed dead Thursday.
The five Marines belonged to the Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 361, Marine Aircraft Group 16, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing. Their names have not yet been released.
Establishment-critical narrative
Deadly military aircraft crashes are too common. The US military's trend of focusing more on shiny new emerging technologies and outsourcing instead of pilot training and safety is to blame for this epidemic of accidents. Investing more resources into pilot training and maintenance should be a greater priority.
Pro-establishment narrative
Even outside of war, military operations are inherently risky. While it's unfortunate that service members can be injured or die in military operations, mishaps are expected in a risky business. Despite this, the number of deaths due to mishaps is trending downward and the US military is working to bring the number of casualties from accidents down to zero by improving training resources for troops.
Nerd narrative
There's a 27% chance that US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths will exceed 3K in any calendar year before (and including) 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Netanyahu Rejects Hamas Counteroffer
On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — saying that "total victory" could be months away — rejected a counteroffer forwarded by Hamas regarding last week's proposal that would see Israeli hostages exchanged for an extended ceasefire in Gaza. Negotiations are expected to resume in Cairo on Thursday.
Hamas' counterproposal — a draft of which was seen by Reuters — called for a three-stage cease-fire over 135 days that included all hostages released, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the enclave's reconstruction. The proposal also called for the release of around 1.5K Palestinian prisoners and increased humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel risks pushing Palestinians into Hamas' hands if it does not work to ensure the safety of civilians and give greater consideration to Hamas' cease-fire offers. Israel's war with Hamas is surely just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack, but Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between Israel's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah by eliminating military capabilities and infrastructure, and it can't stop now. Israel has been forced to use blunt tools to rout Hamas forces because they're deeply dug into Gaza's civil infrastructure. But at the same time — despite what the international community may say — Israel has worked to deliver aid to Gaza and find a way to end the war.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel is waging war not just against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole, making all of Gaza unsafe and in large part uninhabitable. Over 1M Palestinians are living in cold and damp tent camps in Rafah, and an Israeli assault on the city would be disastrous. Israel must get serious about a cease-fire and if it won't, the US — Israel's biggest ally — must exert more pressure to end the war.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Pakistan: Explosions Near Candidates' Offices Kill Dozens
Coming a day before Pakistan's elections, two explosions went off Wednesday in the Balochistan province near the offices of a candidate in the Pishin district, killing 14 people, and also at the office of the Jamiat Ulema Islam (JUI) party, reportedly killing 12 and wounding at least 25.
Deputy Commissioner of the Pishin district, Jumma Dad Mandokhail, said the blast there, which went off outside the office of independent candidate Asfandyar Kakar, came from explosive material being planted in a motorcycle parked in the area.
Pro-establishment narrative
Current local government reports have indicated that the Islamic State group was responsible for the motorcycle bombing, which is unsurprising given the terror group's recent attacks alongside those from Balochistan separatists and the Pakistani Taliban. As Pakistanis are still set to go to the polls, the government has rightly closed the borders to both Afghanistan and Iran to strengthen security ahead of the election. These terrorists must face a swift response for the carnage they caused in recent weeks.
Establishment-critical narrative
The recent turmoil in Pakistan must be scrutinized heavily. Regarding terror attacks, multiple members of Imran Khan's PTI party have been the targets of these attacks, despite the groups alleged to have committed them having no history of targeting the PTI. Secondly, the military-run Election Commission has conveniently announced potential issues with the voting database ahead of the election. All of this, on top of the obvious arrest of the most popular Prime Minister candidate, shows the government is doing everything it can to keep Khan out of office.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance of civil war in Pakistan before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mother of Mich. School Shooter Found Guilty of Manslaughter
Jennifer Crumbley, the mother of a Michigan teenager who shot and killed four classmates at Oxford High School, was found guilty on Monday of involuntary manslaughter in connection with her son Ethan’s shooting.
Crumbley is the first US parent to be convicted over a child's mass shooting. Prosecutors claim she ignored clear warning signs from Ethan and acted criminally negligent by allowing him to have a gun at 15 years old. Ethan, now 17, is serving a lifetime sentence for his Nov. 30, 2021, massacre.
Narrative A
The jury made the morally and legally correct decision to hold Jennifer Crumbley criminally responsible for her son's shooting, sending a message that parents must be diligent in monitoring their children's behavior. While Crumbley might not be a cold-blooded murderer herself, she should have been able to tell that her son was not in a secure mental state, yet she opted to buy him a gun instead of getting him the help he needed.
Narrative B
While some gun violence activists may celebrate Jennifer Crumbley's guilty verdict, the jury's decision could have a chilling effect on parents and gun ownership going forward. Even if Crumbley sets a new standard for criminal negligence related to a child's mass shooting, her conviction may set a new legal liability for parents. This could disproportionately impact lower-income families while not addressing the root causes of gun violence.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.40 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.