Pro-establishment narrative

Meta's actions show other social media behemoths that going hand-in-hand with democracies is the right way forward in a world teeming with various threats to government systems that value free will and choice. Though fact-checking is a small part of the larger role platforms can play in safeguarding sacred electoral processes, the company is doing the appropriate thing by taking responsibility as a stakeholder in the society under threat.

Establishment-critical narrative

Meta, a firm that boasts around 3B users across different platforms, has failed to protect users from misinformation. In the 2020 US election, for instance, it allowed — inadvertently or otherwise — the false narrative of a "hijacked election" to spread via Facebook and Instagram. It even displayed ads questioning the election results. The company has much to answer for, and it remains to be seen whether this new commitment will result in Meta effectively quashing disinformation.

Right narrative

Most people probably want to feel safe from the risks of AI, but giving Big Tech, and thus their friends on the Left, the power to oversee election-related information will not ensure freedom or fairness. The companies pledging to safeguard democracy are the same ones that suppressed the Hunter Biden laptop story ahead of the 2020 US elections and kicked Conservatives off social media for their political views. They should not be given any further power.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country will be widely attributed to an AI before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Not only are Christians representing about a quarter of Burkina Faso's population, but the Catholic Church also plays a vital role in providing basic health and education services. For that reason, the socio-economic impact of the targeted attacks on Christians is devastating for an already impoverished population. The coup government had vowed to tackle the country's security problem, but the deteriorating situation proves the regime's utter failure to protect the population. It's the Christian community that's paying a disproportionately high price for this lack of security.

Narrative B

The attack is the latest evidence that Islamist extremists are intent on tearing apart the fabric of Burkina Faso's society, which is known for its centuries-long peaceful coexistence of different religious and ethnic groups. However, the people of Burkina Faso will not allow their cultural heritage to be destroyed, and the government has promised to take all possible action against the perpetrators of these atrocities. Yet the recent attack also stresses the urgent need for international cooperation, as terror isn't only a challenge for Burkina Faso but for the entire international community.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that Burkina Faso will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

By the airman's own admission, this was an extreme act of protest. His action stemmed from a misunderstanding of what's taking place in Gaza, and the reality that the tragedy and loss of life in this conflict is unavoidable. With Hamas vowing to wipe out Israel, Israel is the one fighting for its survival.

Pro-Palestine narrative

This dramatic act of protest underlines the growing unrest at Israel's attacks on Gaza. Close to 30K Palestinians have been killed, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still discussing launching a military operation into Rafah. This must end before more innocent lives are lost.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

America has been in close partnership with Kyiv throughout this conflict. At a time when many Ukrainians are wondering if the nation will turn its back on the fight against Russian expansionism, it is reassuring that ongoing links with the CIA and explicit commentary from its director have reaffirmed that aid isn't going anywhere.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has long known about CIA operations in Ukraine and these latest public revelations are nothing new. In fact, the CIA's operations in Ukraine go back prior to 2014 and are a key reason for this conflict starting in the first place. Clearly the West has long been entrenching its interests in the nation, undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and forcing Moscow to defensively drive potential threats out of its neighboring country.

Nerd narrative

There is a 11% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

The First Amendment applies to both individuals and companies, which is why social media platforms have a right to restrict harmful speech that could hurt their business — such as Nazi or terrorist propaganda. This is also a nonissue, as several new platforms have emerged specifically meant to support the right-wing ecosystem. Twitter, too, has not only become X but also a safe haven for far-right figures. No government should be allowed to dictate how certain platforms curate their websites.

Right narrative

The issue at hand has to do with being a common carrier versus a publisher. While common carriers such as telecommunications companies have no control over what their customers say over the phone, they're also not liable for what is said. Publishers — like newspapers — have complete control over what content they promote, but they can also be sued for liability. Big Tech has enjoyed the luxury of both for years, and all Texas and Florida are asking is for them to pick one.

Nerd narrative

There is a 25% chance that there will be fewer than six conservative SCOTUS justices on Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Given the history of authoritarianism under Lukashenko, it's reasonable to question election integrity. Following the 2020 election — which featured opposition participation — thousands of protesters were arrested or imprisoned, all opposition parties were banned from the next ballot, and the only politician who publicly criticized Lukashenko was forced into exile. This election needs to be deeply investigated.

Establishment-critical narrative

Western countries, including the US, should stay out of Belarusian affairs. The sovereign legislature of Belarus oversaw this lawful, free, and fair voting process, which — to the chagrin of the US Dept. of State — resulted in a win for pro-Belarus politicians. As the 2025 presidential election approaches, it would be best if the US and its allies refrain from criticizing the electoral process of an independent country.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by February 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Trump narrative

Haley's communications team can put all the positive spin it wants on her massive defeats, but the writing is on the wall, and Trump is the inevitable GOP nominee. She hasn't won anything this campaign season, so there's no reason to believe she'd be able to defeat Biden. She should accept Trump's victory and get behind him so the party can be unified for the general election.

Anti-Trump narrative

Haley has a large following — including with independents — and a different point of view from Trump. So she should stay in this race for however long she feels is necessary to put forth her opinions and show the Republican Party that Trump is the wrong choice. Continuing to run also keeps her in line to replace Trump should something unforeseen happen to the ex-president.

Nerd narrative

There's a 97% chance that Trump will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Even if the coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation has revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. Despite the many similarities to the US Jan. 6 Capitol riots, the political influence of Brazil's military cannot be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.

Right narrative

You don't have to be a Bolsonaro supporter to see that Lula is using the judicial system as a means to punish his predecessor. Lula is a leftist career politician who was convicted on corruption charges before they were stunningly reversed by activist judges. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and checks and balances are being curtailed as the legal system is increasingly used as a weapon against opponents. We must be skeptical about charges against Bolsonaro in this environment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that Brazil will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

It's certain that Navalny was brutally murdered, having experienced years of prison and intricate torture. Navalny stood for everything that Russia and Putin have sought to oppress, and the democratic world cannot let this crime go unpunished. Russia's people will prevail over the tyranny it currently finds itself under, and Navalny will be immortalized as a martyr who inspired a generation to hope.

Pro-Russia narrative

It's no coincidence that the West has pointed fingers at the Kremlin — and Putin personally — over Navalny's tragic natural death, as its propaganda machine is now at full tilt to try to divert focus from defeats in Ukraine and the genocide in Gaza. If Western countries did live up to what they preached, Julian Assange, for example, wouldn't be subject to torture for exposing the US' ruthless killings.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that a post-Putin Russia will substantially democratize within five years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

NATO can now finally add Sweden's military and technological prowess to the international security bloc. Sweden is home to one of the biggest airforces in Europe, one of the leading 5G network manufacturing companies, and a robust public-private tech industry. The West is facing dangerous threats from the East, but some worries over security at least should be mitigated now that Sweden is part of the Atlantic Alliance.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US and its European proxies seem to have no care for world peace. After decades of NATO expansion eastward, Russia was finally forced to stop asking and start fighting. Now that the Western military establishment has gotten the war it's sought for at least 15 years — at the expense of 400K Ukrainian soldiers and 10K civilians — the bloc continues to push eastward and further antagonize Moscow. NATO expansion is a proven cause of war, so why do they keep doing it?

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that there will be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, Netanyahu is going too far, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises to compromise on a needed truce. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel wants nothing more than to end the war and get the hostages back. However, Iranian-backed groups made the error of believing that Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist massacre was an opportunity to establish new "rules of engagement" with Israel, displacing the country's northern communities. This status quo is unacceptable to Israel, and — as Israeli officials have indicated — a cease-fire in Gaza has no impact on the Lebanese border.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Because Israeli forces are committing daily massacres in the Gaza Strip, the international community must put more pressure on Israel and the US to accept a permanent cease-fire. Diverging politically even from its allies, the US is effectively isolating itself from its Arab partners and the rest of the world in terms of its support for Israel's slaughter. To get the hostages back, Israel must withdraw from Gaza and end the bloodshed.

Narrative D

Even in the face of regular Israeli massacres in south Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, the Lebanese and Palestinian people only grow more resolute in their firm opposition to Israeli aggression. The US must understand that supporting Israel's crimes will only lead to more escalation in the region. Hezbollah's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, but if the US and Israel continue to disregard international law, the resistance may be forced to expand its operations.

Nerd narrative

There's a 65% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.