Belarus Holds an Election, but the Outcome Is Not Hard to Predict
New York TimesFeb 25
Belarus Holds Controversial Parliamentary Election
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The Facts
Belarus held its first parliamentary elections since 2020 on Sunday, with voter turnout reportedly at 43.64% an hour after polls officially opened. 40% of voters, according to election authorities, cast ballots during the early voting period from Tuesday through Saturday.
Officials claimed Monday that 73% of the 6.9M eligible voters cast ballots for 110 Parliament seats and over 12K local council seats.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Given the history of authoritarianism under Lukashenko, it's reasonable to question election integrity. Following the 2020 election — which featured opposition participation — thousands of protesters were arrested or imprisoned, all opposition parties were banned from the next ballot, and the only politician who publicly criticized Lukashenko was forced into exile. This election needs to be deeply investigated.
Establishment-critical narrative
Western countries, including the US, should stay out of Belarusian affairs. The sovereign legislature of Belarus oversaw this lawful, free, and fair voting process, which — to the chagrin of the US Dept. of State — resulted in a win for pro-Belarus politicians. As the 2025 presidential election approaches, it would be best if the US and its allies refrain from criticizing the electoral process of an independent country.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Lukashenko will leave power in Belarus by February 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.