Narrative A

It's disgraceful that the Congress of Deputies has approved a blanket amnesty for all crimes that Catalan secessionists carried out in connection with the 2017 referendum — even for terrorism — only because the ruling coalition is fully dependent on the support of Catalan separatists. No wonder Sánchez himself failed to stand up for this bill, only appearing in the chamber after the debate had ended.

Narrative B

While it's true that this amnesty for Catalan nationalists is a pragmatic move that most Spaniards oppose and that has divided legal experts over its constitutionality, it's a matter of fact that this is the best way to cool tensions and help resolve political and social fractures in Spain. It's only through dialogue and democratic debate that the country can finally achieve internal reconciliation.

Narrative C

Madrid may well try to deceive the international community into believing that this amnesty is a path to reconciliation, though the law is actually an admission of error regarding its own reaction to the 2017 referendum, which was, at most, a mere act of disobedience. Now that the years of exile are about to come to an end, Catalonia has entered the fourth phase of its transition to sovereignty.

Nerd narrative

There's a 22% chance that Spain will recognize Catalonia by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

With a toll of at least 8.5K, an increase of 20% from the previous year, 2023 was the deadliest ever on the world's migration routes. While a little more than 50% of tragic fatalities were caused by drownings, nearly 10% lost their lives in vehicle accidents, and another 7% by sheer violence. Attempting to cross the Mediterranean alone cost the lives of at least 3K — either dead or missing. The global community must unite to stem these tragedies and restore survivors' dignity.

Right narrative

There is a horrific migration crisis worldwide and at Europe's doorstep in the Mediterranean. It's vital to work upstream of the problem — to dismantle migrant smuggling networks and even consider repatriation agreements with nations such as Libya. Collaborating with countries like Turkey to bolster maritime law enforcement and surveillance operations can also greatly help to reduce Mediterranean tragedies in the future.

Left narrative

Europe's rising far-right has long instrumentalized migration as a political tool. Their rhetoric overwhelms even the heart-breaking tragedies of the dead and survivors of perilous journeys. Xenophobia has even managed to shape policy as asylum seekers are subjected to detention, deportation, and even violence. Such short-sightedness only erodes the basic international norms that Europe has historically been a proponent of. What is needed, instead, are more sophisticated and human-centered migration policies in the Mediterranean and beyond.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict will be at least 1.8 in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's the most comprehensive study to date, finding neurological disorders to be a much bigger problem than previously understood and the biggest global health problem in 2021, even ahead of cardiovascular disease. These conditions affect 43% of the world's population. The authors advise that these largely preventable causes of health should be a global public health priority due to their massive public health impact.

Narrative B

The study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The Gates Foundation has been criticized for providing too much funding through an integrated echo chamber of academics, nongovernmental organizations, business groups, and individuals. The Foundation wields power through a form of group-think in international health. They now want us to transfer public funds to treat neurological conditions, which will undoubtedly benefit Gates' business interests.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that life expectancy at birth for both sexes will reach 60 years in all countries by Jan. 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Russia narrative

Putin's victory in Russia's illegitimate election is inevitable and will be used as a propaganda tool against all those who seek to undermine Moscow's regime. However, despite the foregone conclusion, there's widespread acceptance that discontent with Putin is growing. Unfortunately, while this will likely only lead to further electoral coercion, minimal popular turnout and dissatisfaction cannot be ignored forever.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's three-day voting period allows all citizens ample opportunity to exercise their democratic rights. This year also sees new and innovative means of voting, such as via QR codes and other electronic means. Like all previous elections, the Russian electoral commission will continue to monitor the process and ensure once again that the people's voice is legitimately heard. Western accusations against the Kremlin will be proven baseless once again through this process.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by March 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the appointment of Mohammed Mustafa will likely be well-received among Western diplomats, it's not clear if the PA has enacted enough reform to satisfy the US. There's optimism that a well-educated technocrat like Mustafa can help push the PA in the right direction, but this has yet to be seen. Either way, Mustafa will have a lot on his plate.

Pro-Israel narrative

Mustafa, who is an internationally respected economist, has been appointed to clean up Fatah's endemic corruption. He is also tasked with unifying the PA's control over the West Bank and Gaza — something that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out. Though Israel wants to see this war end and peace be found, skepticism remains that the PA is capable of forming an administration that doesn't threaten Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Mustafa, a long-time ally and respected advisor to Abbas, is well-suited to taking this role. However, with much of Gaza in rubble, much of its population is either dear or starved and internally displaced. Meanwhile, Hamas is still in control of Gaza, and the PA is still deeply unpopular with Palestinians. Mustafa has a gargantuan hill to climb if he truly wants to have any positive effect on this situation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 48.2K Palestinian civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Viktor Orban sees the political winds shifting in Europe and America, so he wants to capitalize on his country's six-month presidency at the EU Council — as well as the likely re-election of Donald Trump in the US — and 'make the West great again.' Europe last year was run by warmongers and climate alarmists who turned Europe into an anti-middle-class, anti-farmer, and anti-peace continent focused on flooding their respective countries with migrants as the quality of life of their current citizens deteriorated. Orban speaks for the regular people, not the elites in Brussels.

Left narrative

Orban is an autocrat who has put his self-interests above that of his own people and Europe as a whole. Throughout his career, he has accused Brussels of corruption while simultaneously gutting Hungary's press and political freedoms. Orban and his fellow European right-wing extremists certainly have a chance of gaining power this year, but they won't use that power for good. However optimistic he is for his side, though, Orban has virtually no allies in other European governments — especially now that Poland has voted its far-right regime out of office.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that the ECR coalition will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliament elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Ethan's father has been convicted not for what he did but for what he didn't do. Involuntary manslaughter charges against the Crumbleys could set the precedent that facilitators of a heinous crime — be it the parents of a mass shooter — will be held criminally liable. It's one more step towards holding everyone responsible under the law and dealing with gun violence, which has become an epidemic in the US. The case also serves as a wake-up call for parents to better secure weapons in their homes.

Narrative B

The prosecution's case lacked evidence and was based on assumptions and hindsight. There's no evidence to suggest that James Crumbley had any idea that his son was a threat or having a hard time. Moreover, prosecutors couldn't prove he was aware Ethan knew where to find the gun at home or could foresee that his son would carry out a mass shooting. "Punish the parents" laws have been tried many times throughout American history, none of which ultimately reduced crime. This verdict could return the country to those tragic and failed policies.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.1% chance that the Second Amendment of the US Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

While Wade will have to step down, the real threat to Trump, and the district attorney who could one day take him down for election interference, will still be leading this trial. Judge McAfee's decision was based solely on the potential appearance of a conflict of interest, not actual corruption regarding the charges against Trump. All Willis has to do is remove her ex-boyfriend from the trial and she can continue her momentous case against the former president.

Pro-Trump narrative

Willis is fortunate to have only faced this ruling. Not only did she admit key context about their relationship — which likely shows they were dating before she paid him $650K — but McAfee found that she potentially lied and cast "racial aspersions" on a defendant. Every reason Willis chose to prosecute Trump was either selfish or politically motivated, but she still got away with barely a slap on the wrist.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Americans and their representatives have long known the dangers posed by TikTok — all they needed was an American buyer to keep the tremendously valuable app alive once it's out of PRC hands. With cash being the only other unsolved problem, Steve Mnuchin, alongside several other investors, is willing to be that solution. TikTok will remain accessible to millions of Americans while also safe from the prying eyes of Beijing.

Narrative B

Senators are still unsure whether to pass this bill because of its potential effects on US trade with China. Some of the largest American companies rake in significant portions of their revenue thanks to business with the PRC, and this bill would give Beijing an excuse to start accusing American tech companies of spying. Even if it passes, China can simply find backchannels like data brokers to buy Americans' data. Instead of threatening the US economy, Congress should pass data privacy laws that prohibit all companies from harvesting user data.

Cynical narrative

The current bipartisan zeal focusing on banning TikTok and relations with Beijing is a red herring considering the amount of domestic surveillance undertaken by the US federal government with the help of Silicon Valley. America's TikTok drama distracts from a serious privacy issue much closer to home.

Nerd narrative

There's a 21% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Lower courts had consistently weighed in, ruling that public officials, especially the President of the US, cannot violate the 1st Amendment by blocking their critics on social media. During his tenure, Donald Trump used Twitter in an inflammatory way and would often block his critics. While the Supreme Court held off ruling on the case, likely to protect Trump, it's now clear that the former president violated the Constitution with his actions. These new rulings are vital and validating.

Republican narrative

The bigger problem at hand is the utter hypocrisy of left-leaning big tech companies and the media who call for immediate censorship of any critical opinion. These actors violate the 1st Amendment daily, yet they are up in arms about Pres. Trump removing a few people from his feed. The issue of public officials and social media is a serious legal question — as this ruling shows — but the establishment is trying to make it about Trump while ignoring its own hypocrisy.