Day 374: Ukrainian Defense of Bakhmut 'Under Severe Pressure,' UK Defense Ministry Says

Image copyright: AP Photos [via AP News]

The Facts

  • Ukraine's defense of the Donetsk city of Bakhmut is "under severe pressure," the UK's defense ministry said in its latest intelligence briefing on Saturday. "Regular Russian Army and Wagner Group forces have made further advances into the northern suburbs of the city, which is now a Ukrainian-held salient, vulnerable to Russian attack[s] on three sides."

  • The ministry added Ukraine is reinforcing the area with elite units, but that: "Within the last 36 hours two key bridges in Bakhmut have been destroyed, including a vital bridge connecting the city to the last main supply route from Bakhmut to the city of Chasiv Yar."


The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russian forces are continuing to capture towns on the outskirts of Bakhmut and progressing with their plans of encircling the city. Its capture is important as it will pave the way to securing the rest of the Donetsk region.

Anti-Russia narrative

Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months , and even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Ukraine will officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory (Luhansk, Donetsk, or Crimea) as independent before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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