Ukraine and Belarus Are Fighting the Same War
Foreign PolicyFeb 07, 2023
Belarusian Pres. Aleksandr Lukashenko on Thursday told journalists in Minsk that his country — which is continuing to host Russian troops — would only join Moscow's war against Ukraine if Belarus were to come under attack, even by a single soldier.
He stressed that, contrary to allegations made by Ukrainian and Western officials, the Kremlin has not asked Belarus to take part in the conflict. Lukashenko added that Minsk will not fall for Western provocations aimed at dragging the country into the war.
Do not be fooled by the fact that Lukashenko has not formally commanded his army to join Russia in the Ukraine war — the Belarusian dictator is deeply involved in this conflict and must be held accountable together with Putin for this aggression. The only reason he is avoiding deploying troops is that his authoritarian regime would fall if his security forces were diverted from crushing dissent in Belarus.
While the West has sent tens of thousands of mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, Belarus has not deployed a single soldier, instead constantly pressing for peace negotiations. Blaming Lukashenko for escalating the conflict is not only senseless — it reveals that US-led Western allies seek to implicate Minsk in the war to stretch the frontline, further complicating the situation of Belarusian and Russian troops.
There's an 11% chance that there will be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.