What a Transitional Government in Haiti will Require to Succeed
United States Institute of PeaceApr 05
Haiti: Prime Minister Ariel Henry Resigns
The Facts
The day before the council selected a new prime minister and the cabinet was to be sworn in, Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry signed a resignation letter on Wednesday from Los Angeles, California.
Henry wrote that his government "served the nation in difficult times," adding that he "sympathize[s] with the losses and suffering endured by our compatriots during this period." In a separate text, he said he was resigning for "personal reasons."
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This council is a very important first step toward peace in Haiti, particularly due to its inclusion of diverse public representation and outside observers. Hopefully, it will lead to broader, security-focused councils under the president that include leaders from agriculture, education, health, and other industries. The more representative Haiti's government is, the less likely it will be to fall into the hands of gangs and bad actors and align with the rules-based order.
Establishment-critical narrative
For the Haitian people, this supposed transition council will be yet another feeling of déjà vu. The US, through its international proxy, the UN, has been forcing its preferred leaders on the Caribbean island nation for the past 20 years. These pseudo-democratic initiatives have led to dictators, assassinations, and coups every time, and the West seems determined to do it again. Haiti could find peace if its people were released from this US stranglehold.
Nerd narrative
There is a 67% chance that Haiti will experience a coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.