Don’t Dismiss the Republican Anti-Trump Vote
National ReviewMar 06
Haley Drops Out of GOP Primary
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The Facts
Following her losses to former US Pres. Donald Trump during the Super Tuesday primary elections, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced Wednesday she's suspending her campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
In a speech in Charleston, S.C., Haley — who lost all but two of the state primaries as of Tuesday — said she "will no longer be a candidate" but "will not stop" speaking up for the things she believes in. She also declined to immediately endorse Trump.
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Even with Haley out of the way, it's going to be difficult for Trump to get the 90% of Republican voters he's projected to need to win the general election. Many Haley voters didn't express ill will toward Biden, and they could sway the vote by staying home or supporting the president. Trump has his work cut out for him reuniting the party.
Pro-Trump narrative
Haley stuck around so long because her corporate backers wanted her to put a dent in Trump's effort to return to the White House. But the American people saw through her and knew she was more of a turncoat than a viable alternative. Now the former president has a clear path back to the Oval Office.
Democratic narrative
Republicans have made a big mistake. Biden has his flaws, but he beat Trump once and can beat him again. This time around, Biden can take a page from Haley's book in an effort to keep the never-Trump vote from turning to MAGA. For Biden to retain the White House, it'll be important for him to keep up Haley's message that Trump is a dangerous person who could put an end to American democracy.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 53% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
