Israel's limited attack on Iran was to send a message that it can penetrate Iranian defenses whenever it wants, experts say
Business InsiderApr 19
Reports: Israel Conducts Limited Counterstrike on Iranian Territory
The Facts
Iranian officials have provided differing accounts of explosions heard early Friday morning (local time) in Isfahan, Iran, with some saying Tehran repelled a limited drone strike by Israel and others refusing to acknowledge the incident.
Israel has not officially commented while US officials have told media outlets that Israel conducted a limited counterstrike to Iran's previous attack, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging restraint in the region.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Israel's reported response to Iran's unacceptable strike on Saturday was more limited than many anticipated, but the message to Tehran was obvious — Jerusalem can breach Iran's air defenses and attack its nuclear sites whenever it wants. Thursday's operation demonstrates that both sides are capable of causing significant harm to the other, and we may be witnessing the beginning of a return to deterrence and more prudent geopolitical calculation.
Establishment-critical narrative
Iran's military action against Israel on April 14 was based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, which guarantees the legitimate right to self-defense, and was in reaction to Israel's deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Israel blatantly violated international law when it struck Iran on Thursday. However, due to its restricted scope, it does not require an immediate response. It's not in Iran's interest to further escalate the conflict and it's Tehran who is modeling a "rules-based order" rather than Israel and its Western allies.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance Iran will recognize Israel before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.