Controversy
Status:Open
Will Javier Milei Win Argentina's October 2027 Presidential Election?
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Latin America Risk Report"The Peronists reunify - perhaps under Axel Kicillof or Máximo Kirchner - and campaign on restoring social programs. Milei’s approval collapses below 20%. The Peronists win outright in the first round"Oct 28, 2025
Agencia Noticias Argentinas“In a hypothetical 2027 presidential runoff, 43.1% supported Javier Milei and 42.0% supported Axel Kicillof.”Oct 01, 2026
Octagon AI"There is a 52% chance that Javier Milei win Argentina's October 2027 presidential election."Aug 18, 2026
Kalshi"There is a 58% chance that Javier Milei win Argentina's October 2027 presidential election."Oct 12, 2026
Chatham House"There is little reason to think that calculation [Milei's lead] will change by the October 2027 presidential elections."Oct 12, 2026
Encuestas Argentinas"EncuestAR's polling average as of October 12, 2026, shows Javier Milei receiving 43.3% support against Axel Kicillof's 42.8% in a hypothetical presidential runoff, with 14.0% undecided."Oct 13, 2026
Zentrix Consultora“According to Zentrix Consultora’s September 2026 national survey, Javier Milei leads Axel Kicillof in definite voting intention for Argentina’s 2027 presidential election by 28.3% to 27.1%.”Oct 13, 2026
Good Judgment"As of October 13, 2026, Good Judgment Open's crowd forecast assigns a 73.85% probability that Javier Milei will win Argentina's 2027 presidential election."Oct 13, 2026
Cristian Buttié"When people see that their economic situation is not improving, they begin to consider that Milei is not an electoral option for 2027."Oct 12, 2026
Polymarket"There is a 56% chance that Javier Milei win Argentina's October 2027 presidential election."Oct 12, 2026
Lines"Javier Milei leads Axel Kicillof, 55% to 31% — an open field with edging momentum on moderate volume."Oct 13, 2026
The Latin Times"President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza still tops most 2027 surveys, but the size of the lead ranges from a comfortable double-digit edge in party-brand polling to a margin under one point once pollsters test named candidates."Sep 08, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.2
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.18.2