Manifold

Manifold

Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform founded in 2021 by Austin Chen and James Grugett that allows users to create and trade on markets about future events using play money. The San Francisco-based company operates as a public benefit corporation, focusing on improving forecasting and decision-making through crowdsourced predictions on topics ranging from politics to technology.

Claims from Manifold

Manifold
Manifold"There is a 22% chance that Argentina will be the world cup winner."Jul 01, 2026
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Manifold"There is a 40% chance that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026."May 31, 2026
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Manifold"There is a 13% chance that an AI-generated song will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027."Jun 01, 2026
Manifold
Manifold"There is a 29% chance that the war in Ukraine will end by the end of 2026."Apr 21, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.7.2

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.7.2