Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence, and When?
Claims
Geoffrey Hinton"Digital intelligence" could overtake us within "5 to 20 years."Feb 05, 2024 Yann LeCunSociety is more likely to get "cat-level" or "dog-level" AI years before human-level AI.Dec 03, 2023 Dario Amodei"Human-level" AI could occur in "two or three years."Aug 08, 2023 Yoshua Bengio"Superhuman AIs" will be achieved "between a few years and a couple of decades."Jul 21, 2023 Geoffrey HintonCurrent AI like GPT-4 "eclipses a person" in general knowledge and could soon do so in reasoning as well.May 02, 2023 Elon MuskAI will likely be "vastly smarter than humans" in "less than five years."Jul 25, 2020 Geoffrey Hinton"[AI] will eventually surpass the abilities of the human brain."Dec 05, 2016 Geoffrey HintonAI is "very close to it now" and will be "much more intelligent than us in the future."Oct 17, 2023 Elon Musk"We will have, for the first time, something that is smarter than the smartest human."Feb 05, 2024 Elon Musk"I'd be surprised if we don't have AGI by [2029]."Feb 22, 2024 Sam Altman"[W]e could get to real AGI in the next decade."Feb 22, 2024 Demis HassabisWe may achieve "something like AGI or AGI-like in the next decade."Jul 11, 2023 Gary Marcus"[W]e will eventually reach AGI... and quite possibly before the end of this century."Jan 22, 2023 Max Tegmark"It's pretty inevitable that [AGI] is going to happen."Mar 03, 2022 Elon Musk"We will be far, far surpassed in every single way [by AI]."Aug 30, 2019 Sam AltmanAI could surpass the "expert skill level" in most fields within a decade.May 23, 2023 Gary Marcus"I don't [think] we are all that close to machines that are more intelligent than us."Oct 10, 2023 Sign up to our daily newsletter
