Controversy
Status:Open
Who Will Win the Second Round of the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Claims
Kalshi"Kalshi's Brazil Presidential election market shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 82% to win, versus Lula at 18%."Oct 24, 2025
exame"In a hypothetical second-round scenario between the leading candidates, considering the total votes, the senator from the PL party reaches 49%, compared to 44% for the current president."Oct 03, 2026
Le Millénaire"On 25 October, transfers will matter, and they lean clearly towards Flávio Bolsonaro."Oct 01, 2026
CNN Brasil"CNN Brasil / CNT-MDA chart shows Lula (PT) 47%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 43% in a 2nd-round runoff scenario."Oct 03, 2026
Polymarket"Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro 82%, Lula 18% to win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election."May 30, 2024
Nexus fsb"In the second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula registers 46% of voting intentions, against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro."Sep 28, 2026
Poder360"PoderData / Aya Bank poll (Sept 30–Oct 2, 2026): Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 46%, Lula (PT) 46% in a 2nd-round scenario."Oct 05, 2026
The Rio Times"In a simulated runoff, Lula had 48.5% and Flávio 48%, again within the margin of error."Sep 30, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.2
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.18.2