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Will India’s CPI Inflation Average Above 5.0% in 2026-2027?

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Last Updated 20 hours ago

Deloitte"While recent easing in oil prices has offered some temporary relief, the broader risk profile remains tilted to the upside, with CPI inflation for 2026–27 projected at 4.6 per cent."Apr 08, 2026

The Economic Times

Yes Bank"Our inflation estimates indicate headline CPI to average around 5.0-5.2 per cent while growth is expected to slow sharply to 6.6 per cent in FY27 from 7.6 per cent estimated for FY26."Jun 03, 2026

ANI News

OECD[CPI] Inflation is projected to increase to 4.8% in FY2026-27, driven by higher food, energy and fertiliser costs, and currency depreciation.Aug 05, 2026

Oecd

Crisil"We forecast 5.1% CPI inflation and 6.6% GDP growth for fiscal 2027, same as the MPC."Jun 15, 2026

CRISIL

Tata Capital"CPI inflation for 2026–27 is projected at 5.1%, with a quarterly trajectory of 4.2% in Q1, 5.1% in Q2, 5.9% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4."Aug 04, 2026

Tatacapital

Nomura"The brokerage forecasts FY27 inflation at 4.6%, the current account deficit at 1.2% of GDP and a balance of payments surplus of more than $40 billion."Jul 15, 2026

Moneycontrol

ICICI Bank"[CPI] inflation is seen higher at 5.0% in FY27."May 15, 2026

Icici

FICCI"CPI-based inflation is anticipated at 4.1 percent in FY 2026-27, with estimates ranging between 3.0 percent and 4.5 percent, indicating a inflation environment within the RBI’s comfort range."Aug 05, 2026

Ficci

Goldman Sachs"We lower our headline CPI inflation forecast for CY26 and FY27 by 0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 4.4 per cent Y-o-Y and 4.9 per cent Y-o-Y, respectively."Aug 05, 2026

Business-Standard

QuantEco Research"We continue to hold the 2026/27 average CPI inflation forecast at 5.1%, with expectation of backloaded rate hike of 25-50 bps in the fiscal year."Aug 05, 2026

Reuters

S&P Global"Our average [CPI] inflation forecast for fiscal year 2027 is expected to rise to 5.1% from 2.0% in fiscal year 2026 amid elevated energy prices."Aug 05, 2026

Spglobal

Sanjay Malhotra"CPI inflation for this year now is projected to be at 5.1%, about 50 basis points more than earlier projected, with Q1 at 4.2%, Q2 at 5.1%, Q3 at 5.9% and Q4 at 5.4%."Jun 05, 2026

ANI News

IMF"The IMF forecast India’s inflation at 4.0% in FY27."Jul 31, 2026

Imf

ADB"[CPI] Inflation is projected to rise to 4.5% in FY2026, reflecting higher food and energy prices, before moderating to 4.0% in FY2027 as supply conditions improve."Apr 13, 2026

Asian Development Bank

State Bank of India"Looking at the trend, CPI inflation is likely to average at 5.0% in FY27, with Q2 at 5.1%, Q3 at 5.7%, and Q4 at 5.1%."Jul 13, 2026