Controversy
Status:Open
Will a National Rally Candidate Win the 2027 French Presidential Election?
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Claims
ODOXA"In polling conducted on March 25–26, 2026, Odoxa projected Édouard Philippe to beat National Rally candidate Jordan Bardella by 52% to 48% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election."Mar 15, 2026
Sondax“As of October 2026, Sondax's aggregated polling estimate put Marine Le Pen at 54.4% against Édouard Philippe at 45.6% in a hypothetical second round of the 2027 French presidential election.”Sep 24, 2026
Elabe“In polling conducted from August 26–28, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 52.5% to 47.5% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to Elabe.”Oct 06, 2026
YouGov“In polling conducted from September 17–21, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 55% to 45% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to YouGov.”Oct 06, 2026
Polymarket“As of October 6, 2026, Polymarket’s prediction market gave Marine Le Pen a 43% chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election, compared with 18% for Édouard Philippe.”Oct 06, 2026
Kalshi“As of October 6, 2026, Kalshi’s prediction market gave Marine Le Pen a 48% chance of winning the 2027 French presidential election, compared with 19% for Édouard Philippe.”Oct 06, 2026
PredictMarketCap"Both books tell the same story: Marine Le Pen leads (43% Polymarket, 47% Kalshi) with Édouard Philippe a clear second (18%/19%)."Oct 06, 2026
The Political Group"In runoff polls Le Pen beats Philippe 55 to 45, Attal 56 to 44 and Melenchon 67 to 33."Sep 26, 2026
Le Millénaire“In its September 9, 2026 forecast, Le Millénaire projected Édouard Philippe to beat Marine Le Pen by 53% to 47% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, with Philippe winning 66.9% of the model’s simulated Philippe–Le Pen runoffs.”Oct 06, 2026
IFOP“In polling conducted from August 24–25, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 52% to 48% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to IFOP.”Oct 06, 2026
OpinionWay“In polling conducted from September 9–10, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 55% to 45% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to OpinionWay.”Oct 06, 2026
Harris Interactive“In polling conducted from September 22–24, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 57% to 43% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to Harris Interactive/Toluna.”Oct 06, 2026
sondages-presidentielle2027“The available Le Pen–Philippe second-round polling indicates Marine Le Pen would defeat Édouard Philippe if the two faced each other in the 2027 runoff, according to SP2027’s poll analysis.”Oct 06, 2026
PollingForecast.com"Our best bet: Le Pen and Philippe in round two, and Le Pen wins it 52–48."Oct 06, 2026
Cluster17“In polling conducted from July 22–24, 2026, Marine Le Pen was projected to beat Édouard Philippe by 52% to 48% in the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to Cluster17.”Oct 06, 2026
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.18.2
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.18.2