Will U.S. Core PCE Inflation be at or Below 2.3% by the End of 2027?

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Trading Economics"Trading Economics projects U.S. core PCE inflation to trend around 2.4% in 2027, according to its econometric models."Oct 09, 2026

Tradingeconomics

Congressional Budget OfficeThe Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 projections forecast U.S. core PCE inflation at 2.3% in Q4 2027, measured year-over-year against Q4 2026.Jul 06, 2026

IMF eLibrary

Federal Reserve Bank of PhiladelphiaThe Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Third Quarter 2026 Survey of Professional Forecasters projectes U.S. core PCE inflation at 2.4% in 2027, measured from Q4 2026 to Q4 2027.Aug 14, 2026

Philadelphiafed

"We expect inflation to drop to 2.4% in 2027 and an average of 2.0% over 2028-30, according to our latest forecast."Sep 17, 2026

Morningstar

U.S. Bank"We expect core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to average 3.0% year-over-year in the second half of 2026 before moderating to 2.2% by the end of 2027."Oct 06, 2026

U.S. Bank

American Bankers Association"The bank economists project core inflation to slow to a still-elevated 2.4% in 2027."Oct 09, 2026

ABA

Chapman University"Chapman University’s economic analysis cites the Federal Reserve’s June 2026 projection of 2.5% core PCE inflation in 2027."Oct 09, 2026

Chapman

IMFThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected U.S. core PCE inflation at 2.0% in Q4 2027, measured year-over-year against Q4 2026, according to its 2026 U.S. Article IV economic forecasts.Jul 06, 2026

IMF eLibrary

Goldman Sachs"Our economists expect inflation to fall to close to 2% in 2027, if there are no further supply shocks."Jun 09, 2026

Goldman Sachs

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)"The FOMC participants’ September 2026 projections forecast U.S. core PCE inflation at 2.5% in Q4 2027, measured year-over-year against Q4 2026."Sep 16, 2026

The Fed

Morgan Stanley“If inflation follows our baseline outlook, with core PCE inflation slipping to 3.0% Y/Y in December and 2.4% at the end of 2027, then we forecast the Fed to stay on hold this year and reduce its policy rate by 50bp next year (with 25-bp cuts in March and June).”Oct 07, 2026

Investing

Wells Fargo"As economic growth settles down closer to its long-run trend headed into 2027, we expect inflation to gradually recede and look for the core PCE deflator to subside to 2.3% year-over-year by the end of 2027."Oct 07, 2026

Wells Fargo

TD Economics"Core measures of inflation are expected to hover around 3% through most of this year, with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (core PCE) not expected to reach the FOMC’s 2% inflation target until Q4-2027."Oct 07, 2026

Economics

Nuveen"We forecast core PCE at 3.0% by year-end and 2.4% in 2027, aided by a technical tailwind from the BEA’s September 30 methodology change for software pricing, which should mechanically pull core PCE slightly lower."Oct 09, 2026