US House Passes Bill Banning Some Assault Rifles
The US House of Representatives on Fri. voted 217-213 to pass a bill that would ban assault weapons for the first time in decades, with all but two Republicans and a few Democrats voting against it.
The bill would make it illegal to "knowingly import, sell, manufacture, or possess a semiautomatic assault weapon or large capacity ammunition feeding device."
The ban would not apply to antiques, rifles, and shotguns identified by make and model as well as guns that are manually operated.
Democratic narrative
After securing another historic piece of legislation to combat mass shootings earlier this year, the Democrats are continuing their fight to end the epidemic of gun violence facing Americans. This effort isn't the final solution but, between the mental health-focused aspects of the last bill and the banning of mass shooters' guns of choice in this one, Democrats are gradually gaining ground in this historic fight against the gun lobby.
Republican narrative
This bill is an attack on the freedoms and civil liberties of Americans barely a month after the Supreme Court ruled Americans can't be barred from carrying their guns in public. Democrats have consistently ignored court cases like these, and it shows their indifference to both the Constitution and the citizens who wish to protect themselves in an age of soaring crime and absurd calls to "defund the police."
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution will be amended or repealed before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Biden Tests Negative For Covid Following 'Rebound' Case
US Pres. Joe Biden has once again tested negative for COVID-19 after days of what was described by his doctor as a 'rebound' case of the virus. Biden, 79, will continue to isolate until he has a second negative test 'out of an abundance of caution', according to Dr Kevin O'Connor.
The commander-in-chief has continued to work through his illness through virtual and publicly distanced events. On Mon. the Pres. delivered a speech from the Blue Room balcony to announce the death of al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Initially Biden tested positive on July 21 and was treated with the antiviral Paxlovid. VP Kamala Harris was not considered a close contact and tested negative on Fri., according to her press secretary.
Democratic narrative
The Pres. was unlucky to suffer with a phenomenon only seen in a small number of COVID cases. Biden is in overall good health and the rebound was just a minor setback in what has been a successful political period, with gas prices at their lowest in weeks and a bipartisan bill to boost the domestic chip industry to be signed imminently.
Republican narrative
It's not a surprise Biden suffered from a Paxlovid rebound. The Pres. who preached about mandates and social distancing didn't listen to his own advice and his irresponsibly put others at risk.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that before 2023 Biden will announce that he will not run for president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 159 Roundup: First Odesa Grain Export Since Start of War
A ship carrying 26k tons of corn left Odesa for Sierra Leone on Mon. - the first grain shipment from the major port since the war began. News also emerged on Mon. that Ukrainian authorities now allege that Russian missiles targeted the home of Oleksiy Vadatursky, a grain merchant and one of Ukraine's richest men.
UK foreign sec. Liz Truss called the export an "important first step" in resuming grain shipments while warning Moscow not to "weaponize global food supplies."
Ukraine's Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Sun. that the country's harvest could be reduced to 50% of its usual levels due to the Russian invasion. The UN and Turkey have already guaranteed the safe passage of ships exporting grain, but continued shelling and bureaucracy at borders have so far meant grain remains stuck in silos.
Pro-establishment narrative
Making sure Ukraine continues to be well-armed is the only way to fend off Putin and Russia in this unprovoked war of aggression. The US and NATO must not simply offer up their latest and most hi-tech weapons however; combat is about supply lines and the West must ensure basic equipment and ammunition are kept flowing as needed.
Establishment-critical narrative
Multi-billion dollar weapons packages will make little difference in the outcome of the war. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, and what we're witnessing is a geopolitical Ponzi scheme to benefit those aligned with the military-industrial complex. War is a lucrative racket.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Russia's nuclear readiness scale will return to level 1 ("constant") by Dec. 9, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community. It is currently at level 2 ("elevated").
DRC: Two Killed By UN Peacekeepers
Members of the UN peacekeeping force MONUSCO in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reportedly killed at least two Congolese and injured 15 on Sun. at a border post in the northeastern town of Kasindi.
According to the UN, two soldiers returning from leave opened fire on the post in the border town with Uganda in the DRC's North Kivu province for "unexplained reasons."
In videos of the incident, at least two men can reportedly be seen approaching the UN convoy behind a closed barrier. After a verbal exchange, the "blue helmets" apparently open fire before opening the gate and crossing the post as they continue shooting.
Narrative A
The UN mission in Congo is failing primarily because its static approach doesn't take into account the structural and multidimensional causes of the conflict. This gives the not entirely unjustified impression that MONUSCO is pouring oil on the fire rather than stabilizing the situation. MONUSCO must work with the government in Kinshasa on long-term solutions. Security sector reform is essential in this situation.
Narrative B
It's primarily the responsibility of the government in Kinshasa to ensure peace, security, and stability in the east of the country, not that of MONUSCO. The government has failed to fulfil this duty, and the recent anti-UN protests are a product of political manipulation.
Pelosi Promises US Won't Abandon Taiwan
On Wed., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed a US commitment to Taiwan during a Presidential Office ceremony with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen, vowing not to abandon the self-ruled island despite Chinese threats.
Following a closed-door meeting with Taiwanese lawmakers, Pelosi and the US congressional delegation departed to South Korea, wrapping up the first visit of a sitting speaker to Taiwan in 25 years.
Meanwhile, Beijing has announced military drills around Taiwan, including live-fire exercises, which will be carried out from Thurs. to Sun.
Pro-China narrative
This visit isn't a miscalculation but an intentional provocation by the US. The US doesn't formally have any diplomatic relations with Taipei, but they do have formal diplomatic relations with China, and the visit to Taiwan contradicts the One China Policy and threatens PRC sovereignty.
Anti-China narrative
As a global champion of democracy and human rights, it's only right that the US should support Taiwan and its democratic government. Any tension or military conflict caused by a visit by Speaker Pelosi to the island would be an outlandish escalation on China's part.
Nerd narrative
There is a 6% chance that there will be a military conflict between the PRC (China) and ROC (Taiwan) before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Beirut: Silos Collapse Continues Amid Anniversay of Blast
On Thurs., as crowds gathered to mark the two-year anniversary of the explosion at the Beirut Port, a large block of the damaged grain silos collapsed.
The northern block of silos had been tilting since a section collapsed on Sunday, after which, authorities evacuated that area of the port. There have been no reports of injuries or deaths.
Following the explosion in 2020, the silos remained standing as a reminder of the tragedy that took more than 200 lives, injured 7K, and left 300K homeless.
Pro-establishment narrative
The Lebanese government has taken the appropriate measures to ensure the safety of residents in the area. The government wished to demolish the damaged structures to ensure residents' safety, but the fire accelerated the demise of the silos. Additionally, protesting families of the deceased, who want to preserve the silos for evidence in an investigation, have delayed the demolition that would have prevented the collapse.
Establishment-critical narrative
Lebanese politicians are to blame for this catastrophe. Some officials knew about the storage of the ammonium nitrate that set off the initial blast and others have failed to complete a proper investigation. If the government conducted a proper inquiry and issued warrants for those responsible, families would not be protesting the demolition and the collapse wouldn't have occurred.
Yemen: Truce Extended For Another 2 Months
Yemen's four-month-long truce, which almost expired on Tues., has been extended for another two months, with hopes that roads will be reopened and humanitarian aid delivered.
Observers and civilians alike worried that if the truce was not renewed, fighting could have erupted yet again between the Iran-backed Houthis and the Yemeni government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The truce, which was renewed in June and has largely held since April, has been the longest ceasefire Yemen has seen since the start of the conflict in 2014. Nevertheless, both sides have reported alleged violations of attacks, evidence of new enemy fortifications, and troop movements to the front lines.
Pro-establishment narrative
Renewing the truce is a step toward ending the senseless suffering of Yemenis, and shows that all parties involved are willing to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. Nevertheless, this truce was achieved in large part due to the flexibility of the Yemeni government. The Houthis will also have to make meaningful concessions - such as upholding their agreement to lift the siege of Taiz - before lasting peace can be achieved.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite hopes that the initial ceasefire would stop their aggression, the Saudi-led coalition has simply exploited it to further mobilize militants. To aggravate the situation, their forces and allies have frequently violated the truce, harming the Yemeni people. The Houthis are ready to stand by the truce, but such an agreement must improve Yemen's economic and humanitarian catastrophe.
Cynical narrative
The war in Yemen, now in its eighth year, is every bit as brutal as what's taking place in Ukraine, and both sides have violated the agreed ceasefire on numerous occasions. The West's failure to address this humanitarian disaster or cover it in the media with any sort of urgency says a lot about the world's inherent bias and who is considered worthy versus unworthy victims.
Myanmar: Junta Extends Emergency Rule
Myanmar's junta leader, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, on Mon. extended emergency military rule for another six months, blaming instability for stalling peace agreements with other Southeast Asian countries.
State-run media reported that the military's national defense and security council "unanimously supported" the extension, with Hlaing citing the need to "strengthen the 'genuine and disciplined multi-party democratic system' which is the desire of the people."
The state of emergency was first declared after Hlaing seized power in a coup in Feb. 2021. It was extended last August, with Hlaing appointing himself PM. The military now claims the country must reform the current political system before "free and fair" elections can be held.
Narrative A
After finding evidence of voter fraud in 2020, the regime has understandably strengthened its control over the country. Amid ongoing violent attacks by rebel militias, the security council needed to temporarily extend the state of emergency to ensure political and economic stability before ultimately returning to societal norms.
Narrative B
It's been a year and a half since Hlaing's military illegally took power from the democratically-elected government, and the situation has only worsened, with activists being executed and the emergency powers repeatedly extended. It's time for the US, ASEAN, and the UN to impose severe sanctions on this authoritarian regime to help the people of Myanmar return to democratic freedom.
Man with AK-47 Arrested Near NYC Home of Exiled Iranian Journalist
US federal agents arrested Khalid Mehdiyev on Thurs. near the New York City home of famed Iranian writer and dissident, Masih Alinejad, having found an AK-47 with an illegally scrubbed serial number in his car.
Police say they observed Mehdiyev sitting in his car outside Alinejad's house for several hours on two days, adding that he also left his car to look through the windows of her home. Alinejad alleges the actions were an assassination attempt.
The news comes after US prosecutors last year charged four Iranian intelligence operatives - who remain at large - with conspiring to kidnap Alinejad. Alinejad, a journalist in exile and a women's rights advocate, has been critical of Iran's regime.
Pro-establishment narrative
As an American citizen, Alinejad is free to advocate for human rights without being targeted by hostile foreign actors. The US government must do all it can to preserve her freedom of speech, and her right to pursue vital journalism and advocacy.
Establishment-critical narrative
Allegations of Iran's involvement in any potential harm to Alinejad are absurd and a red herring. Rather than mud-slinging, the US and its international partners should instead focus on reviving the floundering nuclear deal talks that languished for nearly a year and a half.
NFL Settlement: Watson Suspended 11 Games for Sexual Misconduct
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson will be suspended 11 games and fined $5M as part of a settlement announced Thurs. with the National Football League (NFL) over allegations of sexual misconduct.
Watson had been suspended for six games by former US District Court Judge Sue Robinson on Aug. 1, however, the league appealed the ruling and sought a longer ban.
Watson allegedly sought sexual activity from massage therapists while playing for the Houston Texans. According to the lawyer representing the women involved, 23 of 24 civil lawsuits have been settled. He has repeatedly denied the allegations and claims that all sexual activity was consensual.
Narrative A
This game suspension is far from what Watson deserves and shows that the NFL puts its star players above the safety of women and justice. Roger Goodell said he wanted Watson banned for at least a year, and the NFL commissioner had the power to do it, but instead, he let Watson off the hook with this measly settlement.
Narrative B
The NFL's disciplinary process is unfair as it doesn't have the same protections a normal investigation in a court of law does, which creates a presumption of guilt in public discourses. Watson hasn't been proven guilty - in fact, two seperate Texas grand juries declined to indict him - and until he is, he shouldn't be punished.
Judge Temporarily Blocks Indiana Abortion Ban
On Thursday, Owen County (Ind.) Judge Kelsey Hanlon sided with plaintiffs – abortion providers and one nonprofit – and temporarily blocked a near-total abortion ban that went into effect last week in the state.
While the plaintiffs’ lawsuit continues, abortion will be allowed up to 20 weeks after fertilization or 22 weeks after the mother’s last menstrual period.
The law, which bans abortion from the point of conception – except in cases when the mother's life or health are at risk, a fetus has a lethal anomaly, or the pregnancy is a result of rape or incest – carries a penalty of up to six years in prison and a $10k fine for abortion providers.
Democratic narrative
GOP extremist lawmakers should be ashamed of their blatant rolling back of rights that women are entitled to in a democracy. There was strong opposition by those who believe in a woman's right to choose, yet these calls were ignored. This is regressive and authoritarian.
Republican narrative
Through the overturning of Roe v. Wade, SCOTUS has made it clear that states have the constitutional right to determine the legality of abortion and that's exactly what's happening in Indiana. The state has a responsibility to protect the unborn, and this bill will go a long way to doing this.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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