Report: US Intelligence Says Ukrainians Behind Dugina Killing
On Wednesday, the New York Times reported that US intelligence believes the car bombing near Moscow that killed Daria Dugina in August was authorized by Ukrainian government officials. The report speculates that the clandestine campaign could widen the conflict.
This finding may corroborate elements of Russian allegations that the attack was pre-planned and carried out by Ukrainian special forces - a claim that Ukraine has repeatedly denied.
Pro-establishment narrative
The war in Ukraine may become even more dangerous if some within the Ukrainian government make attacks like this. The US and international community have tried carefully to prevent unnecessary escalations between Kyiv and Moscow - but the lack of transparency of Ukraine with regards to its military is frustrating. The West and US deeply support Ukraine, but all parties must walk in lockstep on this geopolitical tightrope.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's hard to believe that the US and its allies were unaware of Ukraine's plans. While the New York Times report exposes Ukraine's covert actions and bolsters transparency, it's likely just a red herring to distance Washington from taking responsibility for similar future schemes against Russia.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that Kyiv will be under Russian control before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Ethiopian Government, Tigray Rebels Accept Peace Talks Invitation
On Wednesday, the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership reportedly accepted the African Union's (AU) invitation to participate in peace talks. The negotiations are scheduled to begin on Saturday in South Africa.
According to Addis Ababa, the invitation is consistent with the government's position of holding "talks without preconditions." The TPLF also expressed its agreement but requested further specifics on participants, observers, and guarantors.
Establishment-critical narrative
The TPLF started the war in 2020 and has so far shown no real interest in constructive talks to end hostilities, instead using government-initiated humanitarian ceasefires merely as tactical breathing space. The rebels are taking their Ethiopian compatriots' hostage and even stealing aid supplies. But military and international pressure are growing. For the people of Ethiopia, one can only hope that the TPLF and their Western accomplices are serious about peace this time.
Pro-establishment narrative
All previous attempts by Ethiopian PM Abiy to break the Tigrayans' resistance through collective punishment and starvation have failed, but in the meantime, the economic situation is also increasingly deteriorating. So even if Abiy has so far used negotiations only as a delaying tactic to reposition his troops, perhaps this time, the will for peace will prevail in Addis Ababa — in great thanks to the US, which has always advocated for peace and negotiations in Ethiopia.
Day 225 Roundup: Putin Appears to Acknowledge Losses as Ukraine Retakes Three More Settlements in Kherson
On Wednesday, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin appeared to acknowledge the extent of the country's losses in annexed regions of Ukraine, telling teachers during a televised video call: "We are working on the assumption that the situation in the new territories will stabilize."
It came as Ukraine reported a breakthrough in the southern Kherson region - one of the territories annexed by Moscow this week - with forces claiming they had liberated eight settlements in the region in the span of a day. In his nightly address, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed the liberation of three further settlements - Novovoskresenske, Novohryhorivka and Petropavlivka – in Kherson.
Anti-Russia narrative
Putin started this illegal war that has jeopardized the world's energy security, and he is now threatening the deployment of nuclear weapons. One thing is clear - Putin has to go and the US and its allies must be steadfast in calling for regime change in Russia.
Pro-Russia narrative
American officials are continuing to escalate this conflict, thereby increasing the prospect of a global war between Russia and the West. Why is no one calling for the West to take accountability and stabilize the situation by improving bilateral relations with Russia?
Nerd narrative
There is an 12% chance that a non-test nuclear weapon will be detonated by January 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran Releases American Citizen Baquer Namazi
Iranian American Baquer Namazi, who was arrested by Iran on espionage charges, reportedly left the country on Wednesday, initially for Oman, after being detained for more than six years.
The 85-year-old former UNICEF official, who served as governor of Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan province under the US-backed Shah, was arrested in 2016. He was placed under house arrest in 2018 on medical grounds.
Anti-Iran narrative
Baquer Namazi was wrongfully and cruelly detained in 2016 while trying to secure the release of his son. While his release is a positive step, the US must work diligently to free all wrongfully detained US citizens in Iran. Tehran's unjust detentions are a human rights issue.
Pro-Iran narrative
Iran has every right to combat the threat of extremism and terrorism often inflicted by US and Western meddling. Titles such as "dual nationality" are not a free pass for those who cannot respect Iranian law. Tehran has a responsibility to take reasonable security precautions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will cease to be an Islamic Republic by June 2048, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Thailand: More Than 30 Dead After Childcare Center Shooting
More than 30 people were killed and at least 12 injured when a gunman opened fire at a child daycare center in Nong Bua Lamphu, Thailand, on Thursday. According to police, at least 24 children were among those killed.
Former police officer Panya Khamrab allegedly entered the center with a handgun, shotgun, and knife during lunchtime, killing children as young as two before fleeing and attacking bystanders while on the run.
Right narrative
Thailand is the perfect example of why gun laws don't work the way their proponents hope. Despite restricting gun purchases by age, living conditions, background checks, and proof of a valid reason, both legal and illegal guns — often from outside its borders — find their way into the hands of deranged people like this man.
Left narrative
While theoretically, Thailand has strict gun laws, the reality is far from this the country imposes obsolete measures that are easily circumvented and can't keep up with today's culture of violence. Like in the US, the Southeast Asian country has millions of tracked and untracked firearms floating around the population. However, Thailand's leaders address the growing violence with a disturbing lack of vigilance. The latest tragedy should serve as a wake-up call to implement stricter controls.
US Acquires Land to Honor Native American Massacres
In a ceremony on Wednesday, US Secretary of the Interior, Deb Haaland announced that the Sand Creek Massacre National Historic Site would acquire roughly 3.5K acres of additional land in southeastern Colorado.
The ceremony occurred at the historic site alongside members of Colorado's congressional delegation and Native tribal leaders. Patrick Spottedwolf, chief of the Southern Arapaho tribe, stated, "this is great. A step forward."
Left narrative
This land expansion by Haaland, the first Native American to serve as Secretary of the Interior, is a move that should be praised for not only providing more opportunities for Americans to learn about this massacre but for strengthening the nation's education about the tragic history of indigenous peoples.
Right narrative
Improving our understanding of historical events is always a good thing. Still, those who use a binary brush to paint the Natives as defenseless, peaceful tribes and the American settlers as blood-thirsty predators are doing a disservice. Nothing justifies or excuses the Sand Creek Massacre, but it is worth remembering that some of the most violent eras for Native tribes came long before Europeans arrived. History deserves nuance, not political correctness.
Report: US Could Ease Venezuela Sanctions, Allow Chevron to Pump Oil
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Biden administration is planning to relax some sanctions on Venezuela to allow Chevron and other US oil-service companies to resume operations there, increasing oil supply on the global market.
The US has offered sanctions relief in exchange for Venezuela's Pres. Nicolás Maduro's renewed talks with the country's opposition on the conditions needed to hold free and fair elections in 2024, sources allegedly familiar with the proposal told the WSJ.
Narrative A
The Venezuelan oil embargo has failed, and not lifting it would continue a harmful policy, especially amid the global energy crisis. Despite bipartisan opposition to relaxing sanctions, the Biden administration will only harm both the American and the Venezuelan people by keeping this failed approach in place. This new plan may just be the strategy needed.
Narrative B
Since he took office, Biden has been at war with the US oil business, and this plan would only continue those hostilities. Working with domestic oil companies should be his focus, not opening up Venezuela, which might not even be able to overcome its oil industry’s dilapidated state and produce enough oil to alleviate the problem of high gas prices.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Venezuela will on average produce 928K barrels of oil per day in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Appeals Court Rules Against DACA Immigration Program
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) — an Obama-era policy that has prevented the deportation of hundreds of thousands of young immigrants brought in as children — is unlawful, a federal appeals court ruled on Wednesday.
The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a Texas-based federal district judge's initial finding: DACA is illegal because it wasn't subjected to public notice and the required comment periods. However, the three judges in the latest ruling also said the initial Texas judge, Andrew Hanen, should review his opinion in light of revisions made to the policy in August.
Republican narrative
Biden's codification is yet another Democrat effort to improve the immigration eligibility of illegal aliens. The standards for DACA were previously set so low by the Obama administration that thousands of immigrants with prior violent criminal records were granted entry to the US — the justice system must uphold American security and put an end to this dangerous program.
Democratic narrative
This latest ruling has again put the futures of Dreamers, who have spent most of their lives putting down roots in the US, at risk. Lawmakers must protect the statuses of these hardworking recipients who contribute to society by defending a program that stimulates the US economy and props up the American labor market. Those deemed threats to public safety or national security are another matter entirely.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that the US will phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Unemployment Claims Increase
New unemployment claims increased more than analysts expected for the week ending Oct 1., rising 29K to a seasonally adjusted 219K, according to the US Dept. of Labor. Economists had predicted 203K claims for that period.
Despite these statistics, the labor market has remained strong in the face of the Federal Reserve’s raising of its policy interest rate from almost zero percent into the 3-3.25% range.
Democratic narrative
The Fed has gotten some of the desired job market results from its rate hikes. The economy isn’t in, nor does it seem headed for, a recession. There’s increased participation in the workforce, and demand for labor is nearly back to pre-COVID normal. This is good economic news for Biden and the Democrats ahead of the mid-terms.
Republican narrative
The US economy is a wreck, and there’s nothing the Fed can do to save it unless Biden and the Democrats stop their reckless spending. The nation needs a plan that cuts spending, increases domestic energy production, and provides tax and regulatory certainty for small businesses to avoid a dangerous recession.
US Raid in Syria Reportedly Targets IS Official
On Wednesday, the US military conducted a helicopter raid near Qamishli - a Syrian government-controlled city on the Turkish border in northeast Syria - targeting senior Islamic State group (IS) official Rakkan Wahid al-Shammri.
On Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the targeted individual was killed and one of his associates was wounded during the operation. In a separate airstrike carried out on Thursday in northern Syria, the US reportedly killed two other top IS leaders.
Establishment-critical narrative
This operation wasn't against IS but rather against an auxiliary force of the Syrian army. After all these years that Syria has been fighting IS, it would be odd for an IS official to hide in Syrian government-controlled territory. The US is spreading disinformation to justify its occupation of Syria, harass its legitimate government, and steal the country's oil wealth.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite the inaccurate criticism from the Syrian government, this helicopter raid is simply a continuation of the US-led coalition policy of fighting IS wherever it may hide. The operation went smoothly, caused no collateral damage, and a dangerous IS leader was neutralized. Military operations like these make the entire international community safer.