Brazil: Bolsonaro Vows To Follow Constitution, Orders Transition To Lula
On Tuesday, Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro vowed to respect the country's Constitution and urged those blocking roads in protest over his defeat to president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to disperse. Though he fell short of formally conceding Lula's victory, he authorized his Chief of Staff Ciro Nogueira to start the formal transition of the presidency — the process is set to begin on Thursday.
This comes after Bolsonaro's two-day silence raised fears that he would cast doubt on the election result. His supporters blocked major highways to protest his defeat, with some calling for a military coup to stop Lula — who had previously held the office of president of Brazil for two consecutive terms — from returning to power.
Left narrative
This result represents not only a remarkable comeback for former Pres. Lula — who was sidelined from the 2018 election — but also a comeback for the entire country after the disastrous and polarizing far-right presidency of Bolsonaro. Democracy has won and Brazil has unified in the fight against deforestation, hunger, and racism.
Right narrative
Judicial activism harmed Bolsonaro's campaign by upholding partisan accusations that Brazilian democracy was under threat, and censoring media and the candidate's supporters. Despite significant evidence of his involvement with money laundering and corruption, Brazilian courts played a decisive role in enabling Lula to run, as well as helping him to victory.
Nerd narrative
There's a 2% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Somalia: Over 100 Killed In Mogadishu Car Bombings
At least 100 people were killed and more than 300 injured in two car bomb attacks in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Saturday, according to Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
The al-Qaida-affiliated Islamist group al-Shabaab has reportedly claimed responsibility for the twin bombings. The first blast targeted the Somali Ministry of Education, while the second explosion occurred minutes later as first responders arrived at the scene next to a busy junction.
Narrative A
The recent terrorist attacks underscore that the new Somali government may fail in defeating al-Shabaab despite their efforts and US military support. A successful fight against al-Shabaab requires a holistic approach. So far, however, the government has failed to implement a comprehensive strategy that includes not only military measures but also the creation of economic prospects, the fight against corruption, and the creation of a viable legal system.
Narrative B
Despite the recent bombings, al-Shabaab's days are numbered, as the Somali people are more united than ever in their aim to defeat terrorists. The government is well aware that this fight requires an integrated strategy that includes not only military action but also focuses on targeting terrorists' financing as well as humanitarian aid and economic needs. Victory on the ground will make sustainable development possible.
S. Korea, US Begin Largest Air Drills In Years
The US and South Korea on Monday began a massive five-day combined air exercise in which hundreds of warplanes will take part in attack preparation scenarios for 24 hours a day.
The operation — called "Vigilant Storm" — comes as allies state that such training is needed to counter threats from North Korea. It also follows the conclusion of the South's 12-day-long Hoguk annual field exercises on Friday.
Establishment-critical narrative
When Washington was truly committed to de-escalating tensions with North Korea, Pyongyang responded positively, halting missile tests and demolishing several testing sites. This changed when the US began to increase its military presence in the Asia-Pacific, thereby posing an existential threat to the DPRK. Carrying out provocative drills will only escalate tensions.
Pro-establishment narrative
Seoul and Washington have demonstrated goodwill toward Pyongyang in the hopes of creating an environment conducive towards disarmament talks for four years. However, as North Korea has failed to make good on its promises — resuming its missile tests and further developing its nuclear program — this course correction is necessary for the restoration of the readiness of the South and its allies for an attack from the North.
Nerd narrative
There's a 17% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Hears Challenge to Race-Conscious College Admissions
The US Supreme Court is poised to review and, potentially, overturn the legality of using affirmative action in higher education. Harvard and the University of North Carolina are set to defend their approach to promoting diversity on Monday.
Challenges to the practice have been brought by conservative activist and founder of the campaign group "Students for Fair Admissions," Edward Blum. His group — which was also behind a case brought against the University of Texas and a successful 2013 challenge to a key provision in the Voting Rights Act — asserts that factoring race into college admissions goes against the Constitution.
Democratic narrative
The discrimination resulting from centuries of oppression against Black Americans hasn't yet been undone. Affirmative action remains a crucial tool for promoting diversity at academic institutions — ensuring all races receive equal opportunities in higher education.
Republican narrative
To stop discrimination based on race, we must literally stop discriminating based on race. The Fourteenth Amendment prohibits this, making affirmative action unconstitutional. Institutions of higher education must understand that "equal protection" means equal — not something to be politicized with woke factors.
Nerd narrative
There is a 35% chance that over half of US states will forbid affirmative action before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 250 Roundup: Russian Missiles Again Target Energy Infrastructure in Kyiv and Other Major Cities
A wave of Russian missiles again targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure on Monday, striking the regions of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv, as well as the areas of Mykolaiv, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad and Chernivtsi.
Herman Halushchenko, Ukraine’s energy minister, described the development as another "barbaric" attack, adding that, "electric substations, hydropower and heat generation facilities were hit by rockets." Early reports suggest that at least one civilian was killed.
Pro-establishment narrative
In withdrawing from the grain deal, Russia is again weaponizing food and exacerbating an already fragile food insecurity situation across the world. Moscow must urgently return to the negotiating table in order to avoid a humanitarian crisis.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal comes after the agreement's terms were blatantly violated, when an attack was made on Russian ships used to safeguard the humanitarian corridor. Given this terrorist act was likely carried out with the assistance of British specialists, it's unsurprising that Moscow is unwilling to trust Western negotiators.
Nerd narrative
There is a 3% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
S. Korea Promises Investigation into Deadly Stampede
South Korea's police chief on Tuesday admitted to a "heavy responsibility" for failing to contain the deadly crush killing over 150 in Seoul's Itaewon district during Halloween festivities on Saturday, also noting that police received multiple emergency calls before it occurred.
South Korean Pres. Yoon Suk-yeol also acknowledged that crowd management needed to improve, saying such measures are needed "not only on these streets where this massive disaster took place but at other places like stadiums and concert venues where large crowds gather."
Establishment-critical narrative
The government says it couldn't have predicted a deadly surge from overcrowding, but it clearly had the manpower and experience to do more. Beyond deploying more police, the police could've also restricted cars from large pedestrian areas, enforced one-way walking lanes, blocked entries to narrow pathways, and closed Itaewon’s subway station to prevent overcrowding.
Pro-establishment narrative
President Yoon Suk Yeol has publicly taken responsibility for the tragedy that affected not only his own citizens but those from around the world. While safety measures should have been in place prior to Halloween, we should acknowledge his significant pledge to not only implement crowd control protocols in the future but to give individualized support to each family of the 26 foreign nationals who died.
US Midterms: Kemp, Abrams Spar in Final Debate
On Sunday, Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams conducted their second and final gubernatorial debate. Georgia has seen record-setting early voting ahead of Election Day on Nov. 8.
Abrams, who is running against Kemp for the second time, challenged the incumbent governor's anti-abortion and pro-gun policy stance and blamed him for high inflation and crime. Abrams stated that communities were in "turmoil" and that she wanted to "do better by Georgians."
Democratic narrative
As governor, Abrams would take care of all Georgians, creating more opportunities and economic security for all. These midterms are a historic opportunity to elect the US's first Black female governor, replacing Kemp with a powerful and effective leader who would ensure access to education, healthcare, and a better quality of life.
Republican narrative
Abrams' bid for governor is in freefall. As hammered home by Kemp's campaign, she seems more comfortable in the national spotlight clinking glasses with liberal elites than working for the average Georgian citizen. Unless anything drastic changes, Kemp is in a good position to resoundingly defeat Abrams — again.
Nerd narrative
There is a 10% chance that Abrams will become governor of Georgia in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India Bridge Collapse: Death Toll Rises to Over 130
The death toll from a collapse of a pedestrian bridge in western India has risen to at least 132 people, local officials said as rescue teams continued to search for the missing on Monday.
More than 400 people were reportedly on the suspension bridge over the Machchu River in the city of Morbi, in the state of Gujarat when it collapsed on Sunday. People had come onto the bridge to celebrate a post-Diwali religious practice in which idols are submerged in the river.
Narrative A
Questions must be asked of the Oreva group who were maintaining the bridge. Why did a company specializing in clocks, bulbs, and electrical appliances receive the contract to repair the year-old structure? There are also reports the bridge reopened without authorization from local officials. These pressing questions must be answered.
Narrative B
This is a tragedy with multiple possible causes. There are reports that groups of teenagers were shaking the bridge before its collapse. Noises were also heard several times before the structure gave way. There may be multiple stakeholders who need to answer tough questions — where were the police and the local authorities?
Report: US Air Force to Deploy Nuclear Capable B-52s to Australia
On Monday, the Australian Broadcast Corporation's Four Corners program reported that the US is planning to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to the Royal Australian Air Force's Tindal base.
This comes as the region has become a crucial defense hub for the US, which has reportedly committed to spending $1B to upgrade its military assets there as tensions with China mount.
Anti-China narrative
As China threatens to invade Taiwan, the deepening of US-Australia military ties is sensible to dissuade Beijing from such a reckless move. The best way to avoid a war isn't to indicate that Australia would be out of a possible conflict zone, but to present a united front against PRC aggression.
Pro-China narrative
Australia must understand that Beijing will not make the slightest concession concerning its core interests, especially involving Taiwan. Friendly relations with China would be more in line with the actual interests of Australia — Canberra will only hurt itself by becoming a US geopolitical pawn.
Nerd narrative
There is an 8% chance that there will be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: No ‘Specific’ Threat but Concerns Remain
Jen Easterly, the director of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), told CBS on Sunday that there are no “specific or credible” threats to disrupt election infrastructure in November’s midterms, but there are concerns regarding "threats of harassment, intimidation and violence against election officials, polling places and voters.”
She said that the CISA is also concerned with cyber threats, insider and physical threats, and disinformation. She said that election officials have been alerted to protect voting systems and be aware of political violence amid a "very complex threat environment."
Left narrative
Trump's false election fraud claims regarding the 2020 election have directly caused a new era of radicalization, in which millions of Americans wrongly believe that their country is swarmed with election fraud. Trump's disregard for American democracy has created fertile ground for foreign adversaries to plant misinformation and sow division among the public. The CISA must do more to tackle disinformation.
Right narrative
Though the left loves to pontificate about misinformation, it's only creating echo chambers by purging social media sites of conservative voices. For instance, earlier this month, Facebook shut down over 800 accounts and pages accused of spreading “misinformation” — including many legitimate conservative pages, some with millions of followers. Conservatives are being silenced simply for holding views that go against the mainstream left.
Report: 'Planet Killer' Asteroid Hiding in Sun's Glare
Astronomers have found three near-Earth asteroids, dubbed "planet killers" due to their massive size, during a brief window of twilight. The asteroids were in an orbit between Earth and Venus, and are usually hidden within the sun's glare.
One of them, known as 2022 AP7, is around one mile long and gets as close as 4.4M miles to Earth within its orbital path — uncomfortably close by cosmic standards. It could potentially be the largest asteroid found in eight years.
Narrative A
If an asteroid were to become an actual threat to life on Earth, it's important to detect them years in advance. More study, observations, and technological advancements for deflection are needed — this can't be a last-minute endeavor.
Narrative B
This is yet another headline where publications take the technical terms used by scientists and blow them out of proportion for clicks. In reality, anything as far out as 85% of the way to Mars could be considered "near-Earth." There are no cosmic worries in this story.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that space debris will kill a human on earth by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.