Colombia: Fight Between Armed Groups Leaves at Least 18 Dead
Colombia's Defense Minister told reporters on Monday that at least 18 people died on Saturday as a result of clashes between dissident factions fighting for control of drug trafficking routes. The conflict took place in Puerto Guzmán, about 60km (37 miles) from the border with Ecuador.
It's the highest death toll from fighting among illegal armed groups since Colombia's first leftist president, Gustavo Petro, took office in August. Petro vowed to bring "total peace" to the country, by ending a decades-long armed conflict that claimed at least 450K lives from 1985 to 2018 alone.
Left narrative
Though significant obstacles remain, the fact that Colombia and its leaders have indicated there is hope for peaceful dialogue shows that this historically violent country may have turned over a new leaf. It won't be easy to persuade all stakeholders to reach agreement, but Petro has already conducted more diplomacy than his predecessors.
Right narrative
It's evident that Colombia needs total peace, but it should not come at the vast cost of implementing total impunity. Petro's plan is disastrous, as it would allow asset laundering operations to benefit criminals who should instead be forced to pay sanctions and hand over their tainted money to the Colombian people.
Cynical narrative
Petro's "Total Peace" plan offers a general framework to open dialogue and is a step towards achieving his ambitious goal, but the strategy is risky as there is no alternative in case negotiations go wrong or if criminal groups refuse to lay down their arms. Most problematically, this proposal fails to tackle the roots of violence in Colombia and could further decentralize groups, as evident in FARC's demobilization.
US House Committee to Hear Testimony About Alleged SCOTUS Leak
The US House Judiciary Committee was set Thursday to hear the testimony of Reverend Rod Schenck, a former anti-abortion activist who claimed in a New York Times report last month that SCOTUS Justice Samuel Alito leaked the 2014 Hobby Lobby v. Burwell ruling to conservative activists.
The Times report detailed how Alito prematurely revealed the decision to Gayle Wright, a member of Schenck’s organization, during one of several dinners the group had in an alleged effort to influence conservative justices.
Republican narrative
Everyone reportedly involved in this so-called leak has denied it, and there are many holes in Schenck’s story. Plus, he’s a flip-flopper who once opposed abortion but now believes it should be left up to individuals. Schenck isn’t credible, and neither is this serious accusation. This investigation is a waste of Congress’ time.
Democratic narrative
It’s important that Congress look deeper into this matter, and getting testimony from Schenck is a step in the right direction. Although the court counsel provided lawmakers with a letter that included denials from Alito and Wright, the Times report alluded to evidence the justice and his friend might not be telling the whole truth. Only a thorough investigation will clear this up.
Kosovo-Serbia: EU Raises Alarm Over Car Plates Dispute
The European Union's high representative Josep Borrell warned on Monday of "escalation and violence" after emergency EU-brokered talks between Serbian Pres. Aleksandar Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti failed to resolve their long-running dispute over car plates.
Borrell suggested that both nations were to blame, but particularly singled out Kosovo's Kurti for rejecting a proposal to defuse tensions related to the plate dispute. Local Serbs in Kosovo often desire to use plates issued by Belgrade that are not legal in Kosovo.
Narrative A
Belgrade has shown its commitment to dialogue and openness to find a solution that de-escalates tensions and preserves peace between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo. Unfortunately, the other side doesn't want to fix this problem. It's absurd that Kosovo is willing to start a conflict when neutral plates could ensure stability and avoid deaths.
Narrative B
EU's Josep Borrell has failed to be a neutral mediator, favoring Serbia during talks and distorting reality to blame Kosovo. While Pristina has sought long-term peace and stability, Belgrade has consistently undermined these goals and violated previous agreements to pursue its hegemonic ambitions.
Narrative C
Despite Kosovo having its right as a sovereign state to immediately implement its laws, this is the wrong moment to enforce the rule of law on illegal car plates in the north. Pristina may not be capable of doing it alone and its Western allies are already involved in the Ukraine War, so Belgrade could take advantage of this to promote unrest while blaming Kosovo authorities. This is messy all the way around.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Serbia will recognize Kosovo by July 2042, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
GOP: Pentagon Promoting Harmful Race-, Gender-based Policies
A new GOP report has criticized the Biden admin. for allegedly overemphasizing diversity, equity, and inclusion policies — which the report labeled as critical race theory — and gender identity in the US military. The report suggested that these policies undermine the military's ability to defend US territory and fight the country's wars abroad.
The report was put together by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) to investigate left-leaning political ideologies in the US military and their potential negative effects on the armed forces' ability to function correctly.
Republican narrative
The military's obsession with race and woke ideology only harms Americans and the US's interests abroad. House Republicans have a duty to investigate this and purge the military of toxic woke culture — the DoD needs to focus on critical emerging threats, such as China's rising geopolitical power.
Democratic narrative
The GOP's obsession with "wokeness" in the military is just another Fox News-fueled overreaction to the institution's essential diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. The armed forces reflect the composition of the US population, and its soldiers deserve a culture that supports all Americans and is free of extremism.
Factory Fire Kills at Least 38 In Central China
A massive fire at a factory in the city of Anyang in central China's Henan province killed at least 38 people on Monday, injured two others, and left two people missing.
The fire broke out on Monday afternoon at a factory of Kaixinda Trading Company, and was brought under control several hours later. Many of the victims are said to have been women manufacturing cotton-made winter clothing and pants.
Anti-China narrative
This latest fatal incident underscores China's inability or unwillingness to successfully implement workplace safety standards given a spate of industrial accidents. Added to this corruption and immense cost pressures. Beijing must finally start valuing human life over competitiveness.
Pro-China narrative
Those responsible for this tragedy must be held accountable. That said, China is taking great strides to increase workplace safety through strict, long-term measures at the administrative and corporate levels. And it has been successful within a decade, the number of workplace accidents and fatalities has dropped drastically.
CBS News Verifies Hunter Biden's Laptop
On Monday, CBS News said it confirmed the authenticity of data from Hunter Biden’s laptop – 769 days after the story first broke. CBS's report follows long-delayed verification by the Washington Post and New York Times in March.
Initial 2020 reports on the laptop by The New York Post were widely dismissed as unreliable, and even labeled Russian disinformation by some. Twitter and Facebook blocked or limited sharing of the article, which was published just days before the presidential election.
Republican narrative
It’s bad enough CBS News commissioned an independent analyst to confirm what was already proven two years ago. But then it provided the sanitized version of the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop. The details are more salacious than CBS cares to acknowledge, and House Republicans are going to get to the bottom of his shady dealings starting in January.
Democratic narrative
So this is how the GOP is going to celebrate its House majority? There are numerous subjects, domestic and foreign, they could be investigating, but instead they’re going to focus on Hunter Biden’s laptop. This will do nothing to help the American people. Instead it will serve conspiracy theory fodder to supporters of former Pres. Trump and degrade trust in government investigations. They should be ashamed.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Hunter Biden will be indicted in the US on any charges alleging violation of state or federal law before the next presidential election on November 5, 2024, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
Day 272 Roundup: Ukraine Evacuates Kherson and Mykolaiv Residents
Ukrainian officials have begun evacuating residents of the southern regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv, fearing that the loss of water, heat and power caused by Russian strikes will make conditions unlivable amid the winter. Deputy PM Iryna Vereshchuk said accommodation, transport and medicine would be provided, with priority given to women with children, along with the sick and the elderly.
Sergey Kovalenko, CEO of DTEK Yasno, one of Ukraine's principal energy providers, warned Ukrainians to brace for rolling blackouts until March 2023. "Although there are fewer blackouts now, I want everyone to understand: Most likely, Ukrainians will have to live with blackouts until at least the end of March," he said.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's deliberate targeting of energy infrastructure is unnecessarily increasing the suffering of civilians and amounts to war crimes. This continuing Russian barbarity must be confronted.
Pro-Russia narrative
Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a direct consequence of the failure of the country's leadership to meaningfully engage in peace talks. These strikes will stop once a more sober position on the current military situation is reached.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Vladimir Putin will be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
GOP-Led States Look to Preserve Trump-Era Border Policy
On Monday, 15 Republican-led states asked US District Judge Emmet Sullivan to allow them to intervene in a case and defend the Trump-era Title 42 immigration policy, which Sullivan struck down earlier this month. After his ruling, the Biden admin. asked for five weeks to prepare for the change in policy.
In the court filing, the states argued that border states like Texas and Arizona would face "increased migrant flows," and wherever the migrants end up relocating to, "they will impose financial burdens on the states involuntarily hosting them."
Republican narrative
The upcoming end of Title 42 has illegal immigrants lining up at the border to create an avalanche of border crossings. This will feature many violent criminals getting into the US. Seeing as though the Biden admin. doesn’t have a contingency plan for stopping this invasion, everything must be done to reverse Sullivan’s reckless decision and protect the border.
Democratic narrative
Since the US has dispensed with most COVID protocols, there’s no public health excuse to continue Title 42, which was always a xenophobic policy disguised as a COVID measure. It’s inhumane to continue to turn away these migrants, many of whom have legitimate asylum claims, under this guise. Lawmakers should work to fix the immigration system, but Title 42 must go, and the Biden admin. is ready to move on.
Iran Boosts Uranium Enrichment Following IAEA Resolution
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) stated on Tuesday that stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60% had increased at Natanz nuclear facility, and that its production has begun for the first time at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant.
Tehran is in possession of six "cascades," or clusters, of "IR-6" centrifuges in service at three plants at Fordow and Natanz. The IR-6 is the most advanced model Iran is using on such a scale, and it reportedly intends to add 14 more IR-6 cascades at Fordow.
Anti-Iran narrative
Tehran may argue that its nuclear program is peaceful, but this is hard to believe given that Iranian atomic activity is expanding at an unprecedented pace and authorities have imposed restrictions on international monitoring. Tehran must urgently resume cooperation with the IAEA monitors to avoid further escalations that may destabilize regional and global security.
Pro-Iran narrative
The IAEA Board of Governors had been warned that approving an unconstructive resolution based on false claims only to maintain a Western-led maximum-pressure campaign would cause a backlash. The IAEA should not be surprised that Iran has boosted uranium enrichment. Tehran is open to conducting technical talks with the IAEA experts but will not accept attempts to politicize its nuclear program.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Cryptocurrency: Two Estonian Men Arrested Over $575M Scheme
The FBI and Estonian police on Sunday arrested two Estonian men who have been charged with one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, 16 counts of wire fraud, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering. They face a maximum of 20 years in prison if convicted.
The men are accused of defrauding hundreds of thousands of people through multiple crypto-related schemes — including coercing victims into fraudulent rent contracts and investing a total of $575M in a fake cryptocurrency bank called Polybius Bank and then never paying dividends.
Pro-establishment narrative
As the entire world becomes aware of what was once a niche hobby for enthusiasts, governments and the general public have begun to understand that unregulated cryptocurrency is a growing threat to unsuspecting investors. Blatant Ponzi schemes like this are tragic for those who fall for them, but so are the so-called "stable" coins like Bitcoin that can lose over half of their value seemingly overnight. Regulators need to be on top of this volatile industry before more victims lose their savings.
Establishment-critical narrative
Despite what you may hear in the news and from politicians, the government is not broadening its investigatory and regulatory reach to help the people fight crypto schemes. On the contrary, the establishment wants to use Ponzi scheme stories to cudgel citizens into giving them the power to control how they invest and what they purchase.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 5 countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender by Jan 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.